Freightos Weekly Update: Ocean Rates Climbing, with More Increases Expected Soon

Key Takeaways

• Transpacific spot rates hit $4,800–$6,300 per FEU, up >50% week‑over‑week
• June projected as peak import month, moving ahead of July demand
• Upcoming July BAF hike could add 80% fuel surcharge for contracted shippers
• USTR 301 investigation may impose 10‑12% tariffs on forced‑labor imports
• AI‑related air cargo volumes surged 70% YoY, offsetting e‑commerce decline

Pulse Analysis

Ocean freight rates are climbing at a pace not seen since the 2024 tariff surge. Transpacific spot quotes rose to $4,800 per FEU on the West Coast and $6,300 on the East Coast, a weekly jump of over 50 %. Higher oil prices, an imminent 80 % fuel surcharge increase when the July BAF is revised, and a strong pull‑forward of shipments into June are the main drivers. The National Retail Federation now projects June as the peak import month, meaning shippers will confront tighter capacity and higher pricing before demand eases in July.

At the same time, the U.S. Trade Representative released a Section 301 report finding that 60 countries lack adequate forced‑labor prohibitions. The agency recommends tariffs of 10 % to 12.5 % on imports from those jurisdictions, effectively replacing the expiring 10 % IEEPA duty. While the proposed rates are lower than last year’s emergency tariffs, they introduce new compliance risk for manufacturers and importers who rely on low‑cost sourcing. Companies will need to audit supply chains, adjust pricing, and possibly diversify suppliers to avoid the added duty burden before the July 7 hearing.

Air cargo trends are diverging. While low‑value e‑commerce shipments remain below pre‑war levels, high‑tech imports are booming. In Q1, U.S. air cargo of AI‑related hardware—semiconductors, servers and racks—rose 70 % year‑over‑year, lifting overall air volume by 11 % despite a 13 % drop in e‑commerce freight. The surge reflects growing demand for data‑center capacity and the acceleration of generative‑AI projects. Analysts expect the momentum to continue through the summer, but upcoming EU de‑minimis changes could temper low‑value air flows, creating a mixed outlook for the sector.