Op-Ed: The War Is Turning Iran Into a Major World Superpower by Pape: If Iranians Control of the Hormuz Continues Longer It Will Detrimentally Impact USA and Globe; Iran Is Causing Oil Shortages, Pape

Key Takeaways

• Iran's control of Hormuz threatens global oil flow.
• Pape predicts Iran could acquire nuclear capability within 12 months.
• Combined Iran, Russia, China could command over 30% of world oil.
• US naval assets face heightened risk near Hormuz.
• Escalation trap risks further US strategic decline.

Pulse Analysis

The Strait of Hormuz has long been a chokepoint for petroleum shipments, but recent hostilities have amplified Iran’s ability to threaten passage. By demonstrating missile strikes on U.S. vessels and aircraft, Tehran signals that any attempt to force navigation could provoke costly retaliation. This newfound leverage is reshaping market expectations, prompting oil traders to price in a premium for supply disruptions and prompting multinational firms to reassess logistics routes.

Beyond immediate maritime risks, Iran’s strategic calculus appears to be expanding toward a nuclear threshold. Robert Pape’s assessment that Tehran could achieve a functional nuclear arsenal within 12 months is grounded in accelerated uranium enrichment and clandestine procurement networks. Coupled with a de‑facto energy alliance with Russia and China—countries that together already account for roughly 30% of global oil output—Iran could wield unprecedented bargaining power over both energy prices and geopolitical negotiations. The prospect of a tripartite bloc challenging Western dominance raises concerns for investors, policymakers, and multinational corporations reliant on stable energy supplies.

For the United States, the stakes are twofold: preserving freedom of navigation and maintaining credibility as a global security guarantor. Options range from diplomatic engagement and targeted sanctions to bolstering naval deterrence in the Gulf. However, any escalation must balance the risk of broader conflict with the need to prevent Iran from solidifying its hegemonic ambitions. A calibrated strategy that combines pressure on Iran’s nuclear program with incentives for regional cooperation could mitigate the escalation trap and safeguard long‑term U.S. interests in the Middle East.