DAT January Truckload Volume Index Shows Mixed Volume and Spot Market Rates Readings

Why It Matters

The divergence between volume declines and rate gains highlights capacity constraints that can boost earnings for carriers, while shippers face higher transportation costs. Q1 performance will likely set the tone for 2026 freight pricing dynamics.

Key Takeaways

• Dry van TVI fell 4% month‑over‑month
• Flatbed TVI rose 2% despite annual decline
• Spot rates increased across all modes in January
• Winter Storm Fern tightened capacity, boosting spot pricing
• Q1 rates likely indicator for 2026 freight market

Pulse Analysis

The DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI) remains a leading barometer for U.S. freight activity, normalizing load counts to a 2015 baseline of 100. In January 2026 the index showed divergent performance across asset classes: dry‑van TVI slipped to 219, a 4 % month‑over‑month decline and 11 % below last year; refrigerated (reefer) TVI fell to 184, down 4 % sequentially and 9.8 % annually; flatbed TVI rose modestly to 257, up 2 % from December but still 5.5 % lower than a year ago. These figures signal mixed demand dynamics as the market exits the holiday surge.

Despite softer volumes, spot market rates posted gains across the board. National average spot van rates edged to $2.32 per mile (+$0.03 sequentially, +$0.17 year‑over‑year), reefer rates climbed to $2.81 (+$0.12, +$0.27), and flatbed rates reached $2.85 (+$0.22, +$0.41). Contract rates moved only marginally, underscoring carrier pricing discipline. DAT attributes the price uplift to Winter Storm Fern, which disrupted routes in 24 states, curtailing available capacity and tightening effective supply. The resulting scarcity pushed spot rates higher even as overall truckload volumes softened.

Analysts view the first quarter as a pivotal gauge for 2026 freight trends, echoing the market’s post‑pandemic volatility. DAT’s Ken Adamo notes that rates are roughly $0.05 above the same period in 2023, yet the broader freight recession that began in Q2 2023 saw rates plunge $0.40 per mile in the first 120 days. If Q1 maintains modest rate growth while volumes remain uneven, the second quarter could set the benchmark for annual pricing. Shippers should monitor capacity constraints and seasonal patterns, while carriers may leverage the tighter market to sustain higher spot earnings.