DNV Paper Finds That Existing LNG Infrastructure Can Ease Transition to Low‑GHG Methane

Why It Matters

Leveraging existing LNG infrastructure could accelerate the shipping industry’s shift to low‑GHG fuels, reducing emissions while avoiding costly new build‑out. The scale of potential demand underscores the strategic importance of aligning regulation, pricing, and supply chains.

Key Takeaways

• 800 LNG vessels operate; 600 more on order, showing fleet maturity
• Low‑GHG methane drops in as a drop‑in fuel for existing LNG ships
• Bio‑methane price (~$1,890/ton) is ~2.7× fossil LNG ($710/ton)
• EU FuelEU Maritime could drive 2–11 Mt demand by 2040
• IMO NZF target could push demand to 40–95 Mt by 2040

Pulse Analysis

The global LNG bunkering network, built over decades, now spans all major trade routes and offers a ready‑made conduit for low‑GHG methane. Because bio‑methane and e‑methane share the same physical properties as conventional LNG, they can be stored, transferred, and combusted in existing engines without retrofits. This compatibility means ship owners can adopt cleaner fuels with minimal capital outlay, leveraging the same terminals that already service 800 vessels and a pipeline of 600 new builds.

However, the economic case is less straightforward. Current bio‑methane pricing at roughly $1,890 per ton dwarfs fossil LNG’s $710 per ton, a gap that can widen or narrow with geopolitical shocks to energy markets. In addition, the absence of a globally harmonised chain‑of‑custody framework—whether mass‑balancing or book‑and‑claim—creates compliance uncertainty for operators seeking certification. Until price parity improves or subsidies offset the premium, large‑scale uptake will likely be confined to routes where regulatory incentives are strongest.

Policy levers are poised to tip the balance. The EU’s FuelEU Maritime regulation, alongside the IMO’s upcoming NZF, could embed carbon costs into fuel pricing, making low‑GHG methane financially attractive. DNV projects demand ranging from 2‑11 million tons under FuelEU alone to as much as 40‑95 million tons if the IMO target is met by 2040. Such volumes would stimulate production scale‑up, potentially narrowing the cost gap and cementing low‑GHG methane as a cornerstone of decarbonised maritime transport.