Forwarders Face Margin Squeeze as Growth Cools and Disruption Persists

Why It Matters

Margin compression threatens profitability for forwarders, while the shift toward specialized logistics services reshapes competitive dynamics and investment focus across the supply chain.

Key Takeaways

• Global freight forwarding market hit $240 bn in 2025, growth slowing
• 2026 forecast shows only 2.5% expansion, down from 4.4% in 2025
• Forwarders request surcharges up to 250% amid overcapacity and cost pressure
• M&A activity focuses on customs, e‑commerce fulfillment, not just scale
• Buyers view customs expertise as a differentiator in complex trade environment

Pulse Analysis

The freight forwarding sector, long‑seen as a bellwether for global trade, is entering a period of modest growth after a robust post‑pandemic rebound. Real‑term revenue topped $240 bn in 2025, yet the latest Transport Intelligence forecast trims 2026 growth to just 2.5%, reflecting tepid demand, lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and a persistent surplus of ocean capacity. These macro forces erode the ability of forwarders to convert volume gains into healthy margins, prompting many to seek higher surcharges to offset rising operational costs.

At the recent TIACA Air Cargo Forum, forwarder surcharge requests ranged dramatically—from no increase to a staggering 250% on identical trade lanes—highlighting a fragmented approach to cost recovery. Shippers, represented by the Global Shippers Association, expressed concern that some providers were exploiting the volatile environment, potentially damaging long‑term relationships. The disparity underscores a broader industry dilemma: balancing the need for revenue protection against the risk of alienating key customers in a market where capacity remains abundant and price power is limited.

Meanwhile, capital continues to flow into logistics, but the focus is shifting from sheer scale to differentiated capabilities. Recent acquisitions—such as Ceva’s purchase of heavy‑haul specialist Fagioli Group and Redwood’s takeover of customs broker EELCO—signal that investors value expertise in customs compliance, project logistics, and e‑commerce fulfillment. As tariff regimes evolve and supply chains grow more complex, firms that can offer these niche services are poised to command premium pricing and secure sustainable growth, redefining success in the forwarding landscape.