Forwarders Face Profitability Test as Freight Markets Look Set to Stabilise

Why It Matters

The shift from volatility to stability forces forwarders to protect margins through disciplined pricing and cost cuts, directly impacting supply‑chain cost structures and investor expectations.

Key Takeaways

• Freight forwarders rely on cost cuts, not just higher rates
• DSV's air yields fell 7% despite 44% gross profit rise
• Kuehne+Nagel trimmed unit costs, offset 17% EBIT decline
• Air freight contracts now under 30 days, shortest since pandemic
• Shippers like Kroger push logistics savings as freight costs rise

Pulse Analysis

As freight markets move from pandemic‑driven turbulence toward a steadier baseline, the headline‑grabbing surge in rates is beginning to recede. Yet the transition introduces a paradox: while capacity constraints keep prices above pre‑crisis levels, the easing of disruption also triggers aggressive cost‑cutting by shippers. Forwarders therefore face a profitability test that hinges less on market tailwinds and more on how quickly they can align their cost structures with a buyer base eager to renegotiate contracts. This dynamic is reshaping earnings expectations for the sector’s biggest players.

The first‑quarter reports of DSV, CH Robinson, Kuehne+Nagel and Expeditors illustrate the new playbook. DSV posted robust revenue after absorbing Schenker, yet its air and sea EBIT slipped as average yields fell 7% and 18% respectively, prompting a focus on pricing discipline. CH Robinson emphasized repricing and tight revenue management to offset rising truckload costs, while Kuehne+Nagel’s accelerated cost‑saving programme shaved unit expenses and cushioned a 17% EBIT decline. Across the board, productivity gains and tighter margin controls are proving decisive.

Looking ahead, the ability to preserve yields will separate winners from laggards in the second half of 2026. Xeneta data shows more than half of air freight contracts now run under 30 days, a level not seen since the pandemic, signaling that airlines and forwarders must stay agile. Meanwhile, large shippers such as Kroger are publicly flagging freight cost pressures, intensifying the push for logistics savings. Forwarders that combine disciplined pricing, ongoing cost‑optimization and flexible network management are likely to convert operational recovery into sustainable profit growth.