Intermodal Volumes See March Gains, Reports IANA

Why It Matters

The data signals a tentative rebound in intermodal freight amid mixed macro forces, suggesting potential market‑share gains from trucking as capacity constraints and higher fuel costs bite. Stakeholders should monitor tariff rulings and geopolitical developments that could reshape intermodal demand.

Key Takeaways

• March intermodal volume rose 2.3% YoY to 1.606 million units.
• Domestic containers led growth, up 9.5% YoY in March.
• International trailers fell 3.9% YoY, the only declining segment.
• IANA forecasts 1.25% annual intermodal volume increase for 2026.
• Tariff and fuel price pressures may shift freight from trucking to intermodal.

Pulse Analysis

Intermodal freight, the rail‑truck hybrid mode that moves containers on flatcars, posted a modest 2.3% year‑over‑year gain in March, reaching 1.606 million units. The uptick was anchored by domestic containers, which surged 9.5%, reflecting stronger industrial output and a rebound in U.S. manufacturing. By contrast, international (ISO) trailers slipped 3.9%, the sole segment in decline, underscoring lingering volatility in cross‑border trade and the lingering effects of recent tariff adjustments.

The first quarter’s near‑flat performance—down 0.4% overall—highlights the fragility of intermodal growth. While trailers fell 3.4%, domestic containers rose 4.0%, suggesting a shift toward domestically sourced freight. Analysts point to two macro‑level headwinds: the Supreme Court’s partial overturning of White House reciprocal tariffs and the escalating Iran‑related fuel price shock. Both factors tighten trucking capacity—particularly as federal policy curtails non‑domiciled CDL holders—creating an opening for intermodal to capture a larger share of freight movement.

Looking ahead, IANA’s Director of Economics, Andrew Sibold, projects a modest 1.25% annual volume increase for 2026. The forecast hinges on the interplay between tariff policy, fuel costs, and industrial demand. If freight demand spikes, intermodal’s efficient network could absorb excess volume without straining capacity. For shippers and investors, the takeaway is clear: intermodal is positioned to benefit from trucking’s capacity constraints and rising fuel expenses, making it a strategic hedge against supply‑chain disruptions in a geopolitically uncertain environment.