Port of Los Angeles Posts Strong March as Trade and Energy Risks Build

Why It Matters

The mixed performance highlights resilient freight flows despite geopolitical risk, while rising energy costs and trade policy shifts threaten profit margins for shippers, truckers, and regional farmers.

Key Takeaways

• Port handled 752,520 TEUs in March, near five‑year average
• Imports fell 1%, exports rose 7% year‑over‑year
• Empty containers down 11%, signaling weaker consumer confidence
• Diesel prices hit $7‑$8 per gallon, squeezing small trucking firms
• China’s soybean imports bypass U.S., hurting California agriculture

Pulse Analysis

The Port of Los Angeles remains a bellwether for U.S. trade, moving more than three‑quarters of a million TEUs in March despite a post‑Lunar New Year lull that forced 17 blank sailings across Asia. While total quarterly volumes sit 5% below last year, they align with the port’s five‑year running average, indicating that the recent dip reflects a normalization after the pre‑tariff import surge rather than a structural slowdown. Import activity is modestly down, but export growth of 7% suggests that manufacturers are still finding overseas demand for U.S. goods.

Energy costs are now a dominant headwind. Diesel prices in the Los Angeles basin have climbed above $7 per gallon, edging toward $8, which disproportionately hurts the port’s small‑fleet truckers—over half of the 1,100 licensed operators run five rigs or fewer. The Trump administration’s temporary Jones Act waiver, intended to lower fuel expenses by permitting foreign‑flagged vessels to move petroleum, has yet to generate measurable traffic at the port. Consequently, logistics firms are absorbing higher fuel bills, potentially passing costs onto shippers and ultimately consumers.

The broader trade environment compounds the challenges. A new U.S.‑China trade deal promised soybean purchases that have not materialized, prompting Chinese buyers to source the crop from Brazil and Argentina instead. Coupled with prospective 15% global tariff hikes, California’s agricultural exporters—especially those in almonds, walnuts, pistachios, and fruit—face squeezed margins. As retailers begin restocking seasonal inventory for spring and summer, the port’s projected April volume of roughly 800,000 TEUs offers a hopeful uptick, but sustained uncertainty around tariffs and Middle‑East tensions could temper that momentum.