Ports: Examining the Shift

Why It Matters

The realignment reshapes U.S. supply chains, boosts Southern California’s logistics economy, and signals a lasting diversification away from reliance on Chinese imports.

Key Takeaways

• China share fell to 53.4% in 2023, down from 61% in 2020
• Vietnam's port share rose to 10.1%, a 292% increase since 2015
• Port of Long Beach invests $1.8 B in Pier B rail to boost capacity
• Southern California industrial leasing nears 85 M sq ft, supporting cargo growth
• “China plus one” strategy drives diversification toward Southeast Asian suppliers

Pulse Analysis

The Pacific gateway of Los Angeles and Long Beach is witnessing a pronounced pivot in its cargo origins. While total TEU volumes have risen steadily, China’s dominance has eroded, dropping to just over half of all imports. This trend is driven by a combination of tariff pressures, strategic trade agreements, and manufacturers’ desire to mitigate geopolitical risk. Southeast Asian exporters, especially Vietnam, have seized the opportunity, delivering a near‑tripling of their share since 2015 and reshaping the regional supply‑chain map.

Port authorities are translating these market signals into capital projects aimed at preserving competitiveness. Long Beach’s $1.8 billion Pier B on‑dock rail facility will triple rail throughput by 2032, cutting dwell times for ships arriving from farther‑east Asian ports. Simultaneously, terminal upgrades and deeper channel dredging are expanding berth capacity to handle larger vessels. The surge in industrial leasing—approaching 85 million square feet in Southern California—underscores the symbiotic growth of warehousing, distribution, and port operations, creating a logistics hub that can absorb higher volumes from a diversified trade basket.

For U.S. businesses, the shift underscores the durability of a “China‑plus‑one” model, balancing cost efficiencies with supply‑chain resilience. Policymakers see the diversification as a lever to reduce strategic dependence while still leveraging China’s manufacturing scale for critical inputs. As Southeast Asian trade continues to rise, the region’s ports are positioned to capture higher-value cargo, prompting further private and public investment. Over the next decade, the San Pedro Bay ports will likely cement their role as the linchpin of a more balanced, globally integrated trade network.