The UK Needs More North Sea Gas; Imports From the US Are the Real Enemy | Nils Pratley

Why It Matters

Reliance on US LNG threatens UK energy security, raises emissions, and worsens the trade balance, while boosting domestic North Sea production can safeguard supply and lower costs.

Key Takeaways

• UK gas demand will stay near 35% of total energy through 2030s
• Wood Mackenzie projects US LNG could supply over 60% by 2035
• Pipeline gas from North Sea emits less than US shale‑derived LNG
• Expanding UK North Sea drilling could limit US LNG dependence to ~6%
• Fixed‑price long‑term contracts can secure domestic gas at lower cost

Pulse Analysis

Britain’s energy strategy still hinges on natural gas, which accounts for roughly a third of total consumption and fuels heating, industry, and power generation. While renewables and nuclear are expanding, the pace of heat‑pump rollout and the need for reliable backup generation mean gas will remain essential for at least the next two decades. This reality forces policymakers to look beyond short‑term seasonal balances and plan for a stable, low‑carbon gas supply chain that can coexist with the clean‑energy transition.

A growing body of analysis highlights the hidden costs of leaning on US liquefied natural gas. Beyond higher price volatility, US LNG originates largely from shale formations, where methane leakage during fracking inflates lifecycle emissions. The liquefaction and regasification processes add further carbon intensity, making US cargoes the most polluting option on the market. Geopolitically, heavy reliance on a single overseas supplier exposes the UK to policy shifts and supply disruptions, a risk underscored by recent global energy tensions.

To mitigate these risks, industry leaders advocate reviving North Sea drilling under a pragmatic licensing regime. By securing long‑term, fixed‑price contracts directly with domestic producers, Britain can lock in cleaner pipeline gas, support local jobs, and improve its balance of payments. Even modest new fields, such as the proposed Jackdaw development, could shave several percentage points off projected US LNG imports, keeping the UK’s gas mix more resilient and environmentally responsible as the nation moves toward a net‑zero future.