Xeneta Schedule Reliability Scorecard - January 2026 - Monthly Update

Why It Matters

The sharp reliability decline raises freight costs and inventory risks, forcing shippers to prioritize carriers with better on‑time performance and to hedge against capacity squeezes in early 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Global on‑time arrivals fell to 29% in January
• Africa trade on‑time rate dropped to 20%
• Europe‑North America on‑time arrivals fell to 32%
• Gemini Cooperation remains highest at 68% on‑time
• Red Sea rerouting fuels congestion at West African ports

Pulse Analysis

January’s reliability numbers signal a systemic slowdown in ocean freight. Global on‑time arrivals fell to 29%, a full eight points below the 2025 average, while the average berth delay stretched to between 3.7 and 4.2 days. The deterioration reflects a confluence of factors: persistent Red Sea disruptions that force longer reroutes, severe weather events that shut ports across the North Atlantic, and growing congestion at key African gateways such as Conakry. Together these pressures compress transit windows and erode the predictability that shippers have relied on for inventory planning.

The trade‑level breakdown underscores where the pain is most acute. Africa’s on‑time performance plunged to 20%, driven by a 42% surge in activity at Conakry and sustained port congestion above 75% for seven months. Europe‑North America slipped to 32% after a string of storms closed U.S. East Coast terminals, adding more than a week of delay to multiple services. The Far East‑North America corridor, once a reliability benchmark, now matches its worst 2025 level at 29% on‑time, compounded by a February‑March cancellation spike of 687,000 TEU and 93 sailings. Shippers targeting these lanes must factor higher buffer times and consider alternative routing or carrier diversification to protect service levels.

Alliance performance offers a mixed picture. Gemini Cooperation remains the outlier with 68% on‑time arrivals, but Ocean Alliance, MSC and Premier Alliance fell to the low‑teens, indicating that even top‑tier networks are vulnerable to the current headwinds. Non‑alliance services held steady at 28%, suggesting that independent operators may provide a modest reliability edge in a turbulent market. For forwarders and importers, the data recommends a granular carrier‑by‑carrier review, especially ahead of the tender season, and proactive engagement with carriers to secure capacity commitments before the post‑Lunar New Year surge or potential market tightening takes effect.