A Former CIA Director on Whether Russians Are Losing Faith in Vladimir Putin

Why It Matters

The war’s attrition is weakening Russia’s military and economy, increasing the likelihood of elite‑driven pressure on Putin and creating a strategic opening for continued Western support to Ukraine.

Key Takeaways

• CIA had precise intel on Putin’s Ukraine invasion plans in 2021.
• Putin viewed Ukraine as essential to Russia’s great‑power status.
• Russian military assumed quick victory, but Ukrainian resistance proved stronger.
• War attrition now exceeds Russian mobilization, eroding morale and economy.
• Elite Russian sentiment shifting toward questioning Putin and seeking negotiations.

Summary

A former CIA director revisits a November 2021 call with Vladimir Putin, revealing that the agency possessed detailed intelligence on both the military and political planning for an invasion of Ukraine. The director explains that the FSB, Russia’s domestic security service, led the pre‑invasion effort, reflecting Putin’s view of Ukraine as a domestic issue essential to Russia’s great‑power identity.

The director warned President Biden of the likely consequences, but Putin remained unapologetic, asking “what are you going to do about it?” He assumed a swift victory, underestimating Ukrainian resolve. Four years later, Russian casualties now outpace monthly mobilization, and deep Ukrainian strikes have crippled Russia’s energy infrastructure, turning the conflict into a costly attrition war.

Notable moments include the director’s recollection of Putin’s dismissive tone toward Ukraine’s legitimacy and an anonymous op‑ed in The Economist citing senior Russian figures discussing a post‑Putin future. The director also highlighted that elite Russian circles are increasingly questioning the war’s viability as battlefield gains stall.

The analysis suggests that sustained economic pressure and continued military aid to Kyiv remain critical to force a negotiated settlement. Growing elite dissent could erode Putin’s grip, but his repressive apparatus still limits open opposition, making external pressure the primary lever for change.

Original Description

Former CIA director, Bill Burns,warned Vladimir Putin not to invade Ukraine in November 2021 . The Russian president ignored the warning. Bill Burns tells Shashank Joshi, The Economist’s defence editor, about what it’s like to deal with the Kremlin and why he thinks the Russian leadership is starting to feel more pressure from inside the country.

#Putin #Russia #Ukraine #CIA #America

00:00 - Inside Bill Burns’s 2021 trip to Moscow

00:40 - The intelligence that exposed Putin’s plans

01:18 - Putin’s fixation on Ukraine

04:07 - The battlefield today

05:13 - Cracks in Russia

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