Could Iran War Trigger a Hunger Crisis? | Counting the Cost

Why It Matters

Disruptions in Hormuz jeopardize fertilizer supplies, threatening food‑price spikes and millions of new hunger cases, which will strain economies and supply chains worldwide.

Key Takeaways

• Iran‑Houthi conflict threatens fertilizer flow through Strait of Hormuz
• Fertilizer prices jumped from $460 to over $720 per ton
• UN warns 45 million more could face hunger by mid‑year
• African import‑dependent nations risk severe food‑security shocks this season
• Immediate social‑protection measures needed to avert a global crisis

Summary

The video examines how the Iran‑Israel war is disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global fertilizer shipments. With roughly one‑third of the world’s nitrogen‑based fertilizers sourced from the Gulf, any prolonged closure threatens to push food prices higher and exacerbate existing inflationary pressures.

UN data show fertilizer costs soaring from $460 to more than $720 per tonne, while global food indices are already three‑year highs. The United Nations warns that if the bottleneck persists, an additional 45 million people could slip into acute hunger, especially in import‑dependent regions of Africa and South Asia. Rising oil prices also inflate fuel costs for farmers, further squeezing margins.

Panelists from the World Food Programme, the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply, and Africa Catalyst highlighted real‑world impacts: Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, India and Pakistan face fertilizer shortages; Nigeria reports soaring rice, tomato and pepper prices, eroding household food baskets. Experts stress that the price shock will reverberate through planting decisions, yields and ultimately supermarket shelves, with a lag of several months before full effects materialize.

The consensus is clear: governments must avoid export bans, accelerate social‑protection programmes, and secure humanitarian logistics to prevent a cascading food‑security crisis. Failure to act could translate into widespread market volatility, higher input costs for agribusinesses, and a new global hunger emergency.

Original Description

The next global food crisis is unfolding in a narrow stretch of water.

The United Nations warns that if fertilisers cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz within just a few weeks, the world could face mass starvation.

It says the consequences could be severe if shipping disruptions linked to the Iran conflict drag on.

Food prices are already at a three-year high, while fertiliser costs critical for agriculture have rocketed.

Aid agencies fear a prolonged disruption could push tens of millions more people into hunger.

For vulnerable economies already struggling with debt and high import costs, the risks are growing fast.

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