Former US Negotiator with Iran: Trump Falling Into Vietnam Trap | The Bottom Line

Why It Matters

The stalemate heightens risks of nuclear escalation and prolongs disruption to global energy markets via the Hormuz blockade, while US unpredictability reduces diplomatic leverage and raises the chance of wider regional conflict.

Summary

Former US Iran negotiator Rob Mali says current US engagement is markedly worse than during the JCPOA era, blaming the 2018 withdrawal and erratic Trump behavior for undermining prospects. Mali argues Iran will not accept humiliation or full capitulation, pressing for compensation, return of frozen assets and sovereignty claims over the Strait of Hormuz while continuing enrichment as a hedge. He warns that Trump’s shifting objectives and demand for a dramatic public victory make reliable negotiating outcomes unlikely. Both sides are instead counting on economic pain to force concessions, leaving a narrow off-ramp for a deal.

Original Description

When United States President Donald Trump measures success by counting how many Iranian leaders the US and Israel have killed or how many Iranian boats or missile launchers have been destroyed, he’s looking at the “wrong metric”, argues a former US special envoy to Iran, Rob Malley.

Malley told host Steve Clemons that the only way out of this war is “a settlement that respects our core interests, but also theirs”.

To calculate the odds of a deal, Malley said, psychologists may be more useful than experts because “it really depends on the mindset of President Trump.”

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