Iran Will Continue to Use the Strait of Hormuz as an ‘Insurance Policy’

Why It Matters

Control over Hormuz gives Iran a lasting lever in negotiations with the United States and energy‑dependent markets, potentially reshaping global oil flows and regional power dynamics.

Key Takeaways

• Iran will treat Hormuz as strategic insurance against U.S. policy shifts.
• Tehran proposes voluntary services, not tolls, for transiting vessels.
• GCC and most European nations reject Iran’s toll demand outright.
• Suggested revenue fund could rebuild war‑damaged regional energy infrastructure.
• Iran aims to leverage Hormuz to secure economic concessions and influence.

Summary

Iran’s leadership announced that the Strait of Hormuz will become a permanent geopolitical "insurance policy" against any future U.S. administration reversing the Trump‑era nuclear deal. Tehran is positioning the narrow waterway as a bargaining chip, insisting that any future arrangement must include a mechanism that prevents the deal’s renewal without Iranian consent.

The proposal rejects a traditional toll, which Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members and most European states have already dismissed. Instead, Iran suggests a voluntary service model—similar to Turkey’s management of the Bosphorus—whereby ships receive safety or navigation assistance in exchange for contributions to a regional reconstruction fund. The fund would target the most war‑scarred energy assets across the Persian Gulf, with Iran poised to oversee its distribution.

In the interview, officials emphasized the “hard‑nosed militarized security establishment” that will enforce this new strategy, noting that Iran could also demand direct economic concessions if any toll‑like scheme is rejected. The rhetoric frames the strait not merely as a shipping lane but as a lever to extract concessions and cement Tehran’s influence in regional de‑escalation talks.

If realized, the move could reshape global oil logistics, introduce new costs or delays for carriers, and give Iran a durable diplomatic tool. It also raises the stakes for U.S. and European policymakers who must balance energy security with the risk of empowering Tehran’s leverage over a critical chokepoint.

Original Description

“This very hardened, militarized security establishment that has come up to the fore in the Islamic Republic of Iran is going to use the strait from now on as its only real guarantee, assurance—insurance policy that, under Trump or a future U.S. administration, whatever deal is made isn’t reneged again, like they had in the past,” says Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa programme and senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “So this is going to become a new geopolitical chip for them that they didn’t have before, frankly.”

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