U.S. Missile Inventory Check: A Window of Vulnerability?

Why It Matters

The study reveals a looming shortfall in U.S. long‑range strike capacity, prompting strategic and fiscal decisions to preserve firepower in future high‑intensity wars.

Key Takeaways

• US expended roughly one‑third of pre‑war Tomahawk stock in 39 days.
• Shift from long‑range cruise missiles to cheaper JDAMs reduced war costs.
• Navy cannot reload Tomahawks at sea, limiting sustained strike capability.
• Short‑range munitions remain abundant, supporting continued air superiority.
• Conflict cost estimates range $25‑$35 billion, driven by munitions mix.

Summary

The CSIS team, led by senior adviser Mark Cany and research associate Chris Park, released a detailed assessment of U.S. missile inventories amid the 2026 Iran conflict. Using DoD budget justifications, CENTCOM updates, and partner disclosures, they estimated pre‑war stockpiles and tracked expenditures across Tomahawk, JASM, and emerging precision‑strike systems.

Their analysis shows that roughly 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles—about a third of the low‑3,000 pre‑war inventory—were launched in the first 39 days, while JASM usage left roughly 1,500 missiles in reserve. A rapid transition to lower‑cost JDAMs and other short‑range munitions curbed daily spend, dropping the cost per strike from $2.5 million to under $100,000. Overall, the war’s price tag is projected between $25 billion and $35 billion, reflecting both high‑end missile use and the later reliance on cheaper ordnance.

Cany highlighted that U.S. forces struck over 13,000 Iranian targets, averaging 330 daily strikes, with Tomahawks launched from the eastern Mediterranean and Arabian Sea. He noted the Navy’s inability to reload Tomahawks at sea, meaning current carrier groups may soon exhaust their long‑range payloads. Conversely, short‑range missiles and artillery rockets remain plentiful, ensuring continued air superiority.

The findings expose a potential vulnerability: without sea‑based reload capability, sustained long‑range pressure could falter, forcing greater dependence on cost‑effective munitions. Policymakers must weigh inventory replenishment, platform flexibility, and budget allocations to maintain deterrence in protracted conflicts.

Original Description

Mark F. Cancian, CSIS senior adviser, and research associate Chris H. Park assess whether the U.S. military nears the point of going “Winchester”— or running out of ammunition. They discuss inventories of Tomahawks, Patriots, and other key munitions used during the Iran War that would also be needed for a potential war against China. Their full report, Last Rounds? Status of Key Munitions at the Iran War Ceasefire, is available at https://www.csis.org/analysis/last-rounds-status-key-munitions-iran-war-ceasefire.

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