Shipping Incidents Drop but Structural Risks Intensify as Geopolitical Shocks Reshape Global Trade

Why It Matters

The juxtaposition of fewer incidents with mounting structural risks signals a volatile underwriting environment, prompting insurers and shippers to reassess pricing, coverage, and risk‑mitigation strategies across global trade routes.

Key Takeaways

• Reported incidents fell 16% to 2,818 in 2025.
• Hormuz blockade cut daily transits to 2‑4 vessels.
• Hull claim costs 33% above pre‑pandemic levels.
• Fleet average age 23 years, driving half of incidents.
• Cargo theft losses rose fivefold since 2022.

Pulse Analysis

The latest Allianz Commercial review highlights a paradox in maritime safety: while the number of reported incidents fell sharply in 2025, the underlying risk profile is deteriorating. A 16% reduction to 2,818 incidents masks deeper vulnerabilities, as insurers grapple with rising hull and cargo claim costs that now sit 33% above pre‑pandemic levels. This trend underscores the need for more granular risk analytics and dynamic pricing models that reflect not just frequency but severity and exposure concentration across vessel types.

Geopolitical shockwaves, epitomized by the unprecedented Strait of Hormuz blockade, have reshaped risk calculations for the industry. Daily transits plunged from roughly 120 vessels to a handful, trapping over 1,500 ships and 20,000 seafarers and triggering a wave of missile and drone‑related claims. Insurers maintained coverage but raised premiums, reflecting the heightened uncertainty around strategic chokepoints. The episode also raises the specter of future tolls on waterways such as Malacca or Gibraltar, potentially turning free navigation into a commodified service and further inflating insurance costs.

Compounding these challenges are structural issues within the fleet itself. The global average vessel age reached 23 years in 2025, with ships over 20 years accounting for 24% of container capacity and more than half of all safety incidents. Aging hulls, combined with the proliferation of lithium‑ion batteries on car carriers, have driven fire incidents to near decade‑high levels. Meanwhile, cargo theft has exploded fivefold since 2022, leveraging cyber fraud and falsified documentation. Together, these factors signal that the maritime sector must accelerate fleet renewal, adopt stricter fire safety standards, and invest in AI‑driven cargo verification to safeguard the future of global trade.