US Airforwarders Warn New Tariffs Will Create Disruption

Why It Matters

Higher air‑freight costs and policy volatility could slow U.S. trade flows and erode the sector’s competitive edge.

Key Takeaways

• 10% global tariff imposed for 150 days
• AfA warns of supply chain disruption
• Tariff may rise to 15% per White House
• De‑minimis exemption suspended, increasing costs
• Air cargo margins tight; planning hindered

Pulse Analysis

The United States’ decision to re‑impose a 10% global tariff under Section 122 reflects a broader strategy to address perceived payment imbalances and protect domestic industries. By invoking the 1974 Trade Act, the administration can temporarily levy duties when international payment deficits or dollar depreciation threaten economic stability. The recent Supreme Court ruling that struck down the previous tariff framework cleared the path for this new measure, but it also underscores the legal and political volatility surrounding U.S. trade policy. While the tariff is slated for a 150‑day window, the White House has already hinted at a possible increase to 15%, signaling a more aggressive stance if fiscal pressures persist.

For airforwarders, the tariff introduces a cascade of operational challenges. Air cargo carriers already juggle fluctuating volumes, tight capacity constraints, and razor‑thin margins; an abrupt cost increase forces them to renegotiate contracts, adjust pricing, and potentially defer investment in fleet expansion. The suspension of the de‑minimis exemption means even small shipments now bear the full tariff, eroding profitability for niche shippers and increasing administrative burdens for compliance. Last year, carriers benefited from tariff uncertainty as shippers rushed to move goods before potential levies, but the new, more predictable surcharge removes that strategic timing advantage, likely dampening demand for premium air services.

Looking ahead, the industry faces a dual risk environment: domestic policy uncertainty compounded by geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Middle East military buildup. If the tariff escalates to 15% and remains in place beyond the temporary period, importers may shift to sea or rail alternatives, reshaping cargo flows and pressuring air freight rates. Stakeholders are calling for a transparent, stable trade framework that balances revenue goals with the need for supply‑chain resilience. In the meantime, forwarders must refine cost‑pass‑through mechanisms, diversify routing options, and engage policymakers to mitigate the long‑term impact on U.S. economic competitiveness.