Overview

From the AI boom to capital rotation, Harry Stebbings breaks down what’s driving venture right now.

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Monday – Episode with Maor Shlomo, Founder @ Base44

Key Takeaways

1. Why SaaS Companies Are Going to Die in a World of Vibe Coding

   • As vibe‑coding matures, companies will build and customise their own tools. Owning data and code eliminates feature bloat. SaaS firms that rely on implementers are unlikely to survive the next decade.

2. I Am Not Worried About Replit and Lovable, I Am Worried About Google

   • Google moves extremely fast and controls the entire stack (Compute, Cloud, Suite). That breadth is the real competitive threat.

3. It Is Total BS That Vibe Coding Has Shit Margins – We Can Change Them Whenever We Want

   • Margins depend on the service delivered to users. By switching models per prompt and leveraging cheaper open‑source models, margins can improve dramatically.

4. Do Vibe‑Coding Platforms Have No Defensibility?

   • Building a functional vibe‑coding platform is easy, but creating one with real‑world use cases is hard. The moat lies in a “mini‑cloud” of vertical integrations, infrastructure, and persistent workflows.

5. How Does Base44 Beat Cursor in the End?

   • Base44 targets non‑technical users (no API keys, no Supabase links). As models improve, even developers care less about editing files. When an entire product can be built inside Base44, users tend to prefer it over tools like Cursor.

6. Why Base44 Is Helped & Not Hurt by Not Being in Silicon Valley

   • Silicon Valley is no longer required for building important companies or accessing opportunity. The “war on talent” there means firms without deep pockets will lose, while the broader world offers more favorable conditions.

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Thursday – Episode with Rory O’Driscoll, GP @ Scale, and Jason Lemkin, Founder @ SaaStr

Key Takeaways

1. The Signal That a Company Is in War Mode

   • A true “war mode” shows when a CEO pushes extremely hard. At top companies, this relentless drive can motivate thousands toward a common goal.

2. How to Justify a $10 BN Price for Sierra

   • Sierra grew from $10 M to $100 M in one year. Assuming 5× growth next year, then 3×, then 2×, it could reach $5 B in five years. To hit a $10 BN valuation, Sierra must capture a sizable slice of the $200 B/year services market (e.g., Service Cloud’s $8 B revenue today).

3. The Rate Limiter for Sierra and Enterprise Companies

   • Growth isn’t limited by demand but by enterprise change‑management. Each $10 M rollout requires complex integrations, training, and internal process overhauls—the physics of enterprise adoption.

4. Either Wix Is Dramatically Undervalued, or Lovable Is Dramatically Overvalued

   • If Wix executes its strategy, its valuation will reflect that. If it merely checks the “AI box” without making it core, Lovable will dominate the space.

5. If an AI Product Needs Your Credit Card Before You Start, It Is a Scam

   • The best AI companies let users try for free before payment is required (e.g., Lovable, Suno, ChatGPT). Immediate credit‑card requests are a red flag.

6. Why You Can Never Push Your Team Too Hard

   • Advice: don’t go easy on your team. Support them where they’re strong, but also push them harder. The most capable people will rise to the challenge.

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Friday – Behind‑the‑Scenes Episode with John McMahon, Author

No specific takeaways were listed in the newsletter.

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Looking Ahead

• Monday: Jonathan Siddharth, Founder & CEO @ Turing

• Thursday: Jason Lemkin & Rory O’Driscoll (again)

• Friday: Federico Simionato, Product Lead @ Bending Spoons

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