Big idea + report of the week

• AI deal activity slows, but the money keeps getting bigger.

• Flat bonuses, rising secondaries and what it means for VC careers.

• VCs pull back from China AI investment, why?

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AI deal activity slows, but the money keeps getting bigger

CB Insights’ State of AI Q3’25 report shows a clear split in the AI funding landscape: fewer deals, but dramatically larger check sizes.

• Deal volume dropped 22 % QoQ, to 1,295 deals, yet global AI funding still topped $45 billion for the fourth straight quarter.

• Average deal size hit $49.3 million YTD, up 86 % from 2024, driven by mega‑rounds above $100 million, now accounting for more than 75 % of total funding.

• Early‑stage checks are rising too, with median round size climbing to $3.4 million in 2025 (from $2.5 million last year).

• Six $1 billion‑plus rounds closed in Q3 alone, led by Anthropic ($13 B Series F), OpenAI ($8.3 B PE), and Mistral AI ($1.5 B Series C), underscoring how frontier‑model building remains capital‑intensive.

• Infrastructure startups are joining the big leagues: Nscale ($1.1 B) and Groq ($750 M) show how data‑centre and chip companies are capturing investor attention as AI’s backbone costs surge.

AI investing has gone top‑heavy. Investors are consolidating capital into fewer, “winner‑take‑most” bets to fund the immense computing, data, and engineering expenses of frontier‑model and infrastructure development.

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Flat bonuses, rising secondaries and what it means for VC careers

Johnson Associates’ latest compensation data shows secondaries fund managers will see 10 %+ higher bonuses this year, while payouts in private equity and venture capital remain flat.

• PE and VC bonuses: Flat to +5 % YoY, reflecting slow distributions and fundraising challenges.

• Secondaries: Up 10 %+ for the second straight year, buoyed by $70.9 B raised in H1 2025, a 20.4 % YoY increase.

• VC and PE fundraising: Down 35 % and 34 %, respectively, with most capital flowing to large‑cap funds, putting pressure on smaller managers.

Johnson’s advice: “Pick the one that’s not hot right now. You’ll face less competition and have a longer runway to stand out.”

While secondaries are enjoying their moment, PE and VC still offer the more durable long‑term path to deeper networks, more stable capital bases, and less exposure to short‑term market swings.

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VCs pull back from China AI investment – why?

China’s AI giants are delivering strong public‑market returns, but venture capital tells a different story. According to PitchBook, only $6 B has been invested across 574 AI deals in 2025, a steep drop from last year’s totals.

• Global contrast: US AI funding has surged 61.5 % YoY to $174.6 B, while Europe is up 19 % to nearly $22 B.

• Fewer mega‑rounds: This year’s largest China AI deals, MiniMax ($300 M) and Leju Robotics ($200 M), highlight the shrinking scale of private‑capital deployment.

• Capital constraints: Chinese VC fundraising is now less than one‑fourth of 2024’s levels, which were already the weakest in nearly a decade.

• Foreign capital pullback: Dealmaking involving international investors dropped to 112 deals worth $2.1 B in H1 2025, as geopolitical tensions intensify and the US tightens chip export controls.

• Policy response: In March, Beijing launched a 1 trillion yuan ($140 B) government‑backed tech fund to bridge the funding gap and maintain competitiveness.

Despite the funding freeze, China continues to lead globally in AI research output and patents, according to Stanford’s 2025 AI Index Report. But for now, venture dollars are flowing elsewhere, as investors weigh geopolitics, regulation, and the rising cost of AI scale.

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Frameworks & insightful posts

How to do competitor research in 10 minutes using ChatGPT (real prompts inside)

Every founder or marketer has been there, drowning in 20 tabs, trying to figure out what competitors are doing differently. Pricing pages, product screenshots, half‑baked case studies—it’s a time sink that often ends with more confusion than clarity.

From a Reddit post where one founder shared how they stopped wasting hours digging through competitor sites and started using ChatGPT to do it in minutes. They now get a full picture of pricing, features, positioning, and content strategy in under 10 minutes. Here’s how:

1. The Classic SWOT Analysis

Prompt:

Act as a market research analyst. I want to conduct a quick SWOT analysis of my competitor, [Competitor’s Name]. Based on publicly available information, generate a SWOT analysis for them. For each of the four quadrants (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats), provide at least 3 bullet points and a brief explanation. My company, [Your Company’s Name], operates in the [Your Industry] industry.



Here is the competitor’s website: [Link to competitor’s website]

2. The 4 Ps of Marketing Mix

Prompt:

I am a marketing strategist for [Your Company’s Name]. I need to understand the marketing mix of my competitor, [Competitor’s Name]. Please analyze their ‘4 Ps’ (Product, Price, Place, Promotion) based on the information on their website and general online presence.



- Product: What are their core products/services? What are the key features and benefits?

- Price: What is their pricing strategy (e.g., premium, budget, value‑based)? Provide specific price points if available.

- Place: Where do they sell their products/services (e.g., online, physical stores, through partners)?

- Promotion: How do they promote their offerings (e.g., social media, content marketing, paid ads, PR)?



Competitor’s Website: [Link to competitor’s website]

3. Unique Selling Proposition (USP) & Value Proposition

Prompt:

Act as a brand strategist. I need to understand the Unique Selling Proposition (USP) and overall value proposition of my main competitor, [Competitor’s Name]. Analyze their website, customer reviews, and social media presence to answer the following:



- What is their primary target audience?

- What is the main problem they solve for their customers?

- What is their unique promise or the key differentiator they emphasize in their messaging?

- How do they position themselves against other players in the market?

These prompts can be adapted to any industry and give you a rapid, structured view of where competitors stand and where opportunities may lie.