a16z Podcast
Is AI Slowing Down? Nathan Labenz Says We're Asking the Wrong Question
a16z Podcast
•October 14, 2025•1h 31m
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a16z Podcast•Oct 14, 2025
Key Takeaways
- •AI progress continues despite perceived slowdown, new reasoning breakthroughs.
- •GPT-4.5 and GPT-5 show significant factual and reasoning gains.
- •Extended context windows let models analyze full papers efficiently.
- •Scaling laws persist, yet post‑training now drives major improvements.
- •Models now solve IMO‑level math and generate novel scientific hypotheses.
Pulse Analysis
The episode opens by challenging the popular narrative that AI development has stalled. Host Nathan LeBenz and the A&Z team dissect Cal Newport’s claim that AI makes students lazy, separating short‑term cognitive effects from long‑term capability growth. They argue that perceived plateau stems from mismatched expectations rather than actual slowdown, emphasizing that AI’s impact on productivity and learning is still accelerating.
Technical evidence backs this view: GPT‑4.5’s jump to 65% on the Simple QA benchmark, longer token windows, and sophisticated post‑training techniques illustrate real progress beyond raw scaling. While classic scaling laws still describe performance gains, the industry is now extracting more value from architectural tweaks, extended context handling, and multimodal reasoning. These advances make models more fact‑rich and better at complex tasks without simply inflating parameter counts.
The practical implications are profound. Recent models have earned IMO gold‑medal‑level math scores and generated viable scientific hypotheses, rivaling months of human research at a fraction of the cost. Google’s AI co‑scientist, for example, structured the scientific method into modular prompts, solving problems that eluded experts for years. This shift from incremental chatbot improvements to frontier‑pushing capabilities suggests that AI is not slowing; it is redefining how knowledge is created and applied. Recognizing this trajectory is essential for businesses and policymakers shaping the future of AI.
Episode Description
Nathan Labenz is one of the clearest voices analyzing where AI is headed, pairing sharp technical analysis with his years of work on The Cognitive Revolution.
In this episode, Nathan joins a16z’s Erik Torenberg to ask a pressing question: is AI progress actually slowing down, or are we just getting used to the breakthroughs? They discuss the debate over GPT-5, the state of reasoning and automation, the future of agents and engineering work, and how we can build a positive vision for where AI goes next.
Resources:
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Listen to the Cognitive Revolution: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk
Watch Cognitive Revolution: https://www.youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Stay Updated:
Find a16z on X
Find a16z on LinkedIn
Listen to the a16z Podcast on Spotify
Listen to the a16z Podcast on Apple Podcasts
Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
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