U.S. Picking Up Tariff "Tab," NVDA & CRM Earnings Center of AI Disruption
•February 19, 2026
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Why It Matters
The analysis signals that upcoming AI earnings and delayed tariff pass‑through will drive short‑term market volatility, guiding traders and portfolio managers on risk allocation.
Key Takeaways
- •U.S. will absorb tariff costs, delaying consumer price pass‑through.
- •Tariff impact still pending, trade deficit widens to $70.3 billion.
- •AI earnings from Nvidia and Salesforce set near‑term market tone.
- •Tech stocks face rotation; Nasdaq down 24% YTD versus S&P modest dip.
- •Market churn reflects short‑term attention, not fundamental crisis.
Summary
Morning Trade Live hosts Liz Ann Sonders and Nathan Peterson dissected three intertwined themes: lingering tariff effects, the looming AI earnings season, and a subtle market rotation. They noted that U.S. companies, not foreign exporters, bear the tariff burden, and that pass‑through to consumers has been minimal so far, leaving the trade deficit expanding to $70.3 billion.
Survey data suggest firms may soon re‑impose price hikes, while imports rose 3.6% and exports fell 1.7%. Meanwhile, AI‑centric stocks such as Nvidia and Salesforce are poised to shape sentiment, with Nvidia’s results expected next Wednesday and Salesforce trading at a modest forward P/E of 15.
Sonders emphasized the “gross misunderstanding” of tariff mechanics, and Dan Ives called the current AI market dislocation “the biggest of his career.” Wall Street Journal’s James McIntosh echoed the view that the market appears “weird,” swinging like a crisis despite the S&P’s proximity to its highs.
Investors should brace for a gradual consumer price pass‑through, monitor AI earnings for directional cues, and expect continued sector rotation that may temper excess valuations without triggering a sharp crash.
Original Description
Liz Ann Sonders with @CharlesSchwab offers a crash course in tariffs and why U.S. companies are the ones that "pick up the tab" on costs. She sees headwinds on the horizon for U.S. consumers as business leaders look for ways to offset those costs. Nathan Peterson turns to the tech picture and a "near-term sentiment resolution" on how disruptive AI will be. How? Nate points to two crucial earnings reports next Wednesday in Nvidia (NVDA) and Salesforce (CRM).
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