Gilead Dips as ‘Strong’ Earnings Outweighed by High Expectations for New HIV Drug
•February 11, 2026
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Why It Matters
The market’s reaction underscores how high expectations for pipeline launches can outweigh solid earnings, highlighting pressure on pharma firms to deliver rapid growth. Gilead’s shift toward in‑vivo cell therapies signals a broader industry realignment toward more scalable immuno‑oncology platforms.
Key Takeaways
- •Q4 product sales $7.9B, up 5% YoY.
- •HIV drugs Biktarvy, Descovy exceed forecasts.
- •Yeztugo forecast $800M, below $1B whisper.
- •Cell therapy sales fell 6% amid competitive pressure.
- •Gilead acquires Interius, pursues in‑vivo cell therapies.
Pulse Analysis
Gilead Sciences’ latest earnings illustrate a classic paradox in biotech: robust top‑line performance can be eclipsed by unmet expectations for next‑generation products. While Biktarvy and Descovy drove a 6% year‑over‑year rise in HIV revenues, the company’s guidance for full‑year sales and earnings remained tightly bracketed by consensus, suggesting confidence in its existing portfolio. Yet investors zeroed in on Yeztugo, the newly launched HIV‑prevention injectable, whose projected $800 million in 2026 sales fell short of the $1 billion whisper that had built a premium valuation on the drug’s potential.
The share‑price dip reflects a broader market dynamic where forward‑looking metrics often dominate short‑term sentiment. Analysts view Yeztugo’s modest outlook as a signal that Gilead may be conservative in its guidance, possibly to manage risk amid policy pressures such as most‑favored‑nation pricing agreements. Nevertheless, the shortfall raises questions about the commercial traction of HIV‑prevention therapies, especially as competitors intensify R&D pipelines. For investors, the episode highlights the importance of scrutinizing not just earnings beats but also the narrative surrounding pipeline milestones and the realism of sales forecasts.
Beyond HIV, Gilead’s declining cell‑therapy sales—down 6% in Q4—mirror an industry shift toward in‑vivo approaches that promise easier manufacturing and broader patient access. The company’s recent acquisition of Interius BioTherapeutics and its collaboration with Arcellx signal a strategic pivot to capture this emerging segment. While legacy ex‑vivo products like Yescarta and Tecartus face competitive headwinds, Gilead’s commitment to in‑vivo modalities could position it favorably as the market reallocates capital toward next‑generation immunotherapies. This dual focus on sustaining HIV revenue while reinventing its cell‑therapy portfolio will be pivotal for Gilead’s growth trajectory in the coming years.
Gilead dips as ‘strong’ earnings outweighed by high expectations for new HIV drug
Shares of Gilead Sciences slid after the stock market closed Tuesday in spite of fresh earnings report in which the company’s top products beat Wall Street forecasts.
Gilead recorded $7.9 billion in product sales over the final three months of 2025, a 5% increase from the same period a year prior. Brian Abrahams, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, called it a “strong commercial quarter” with “major beats” in Gilead’s HIV business, which was up 6% year‑over‑year.
Biktarvy, a three‑in‑one pill for HIV treatment, and Descovy, a daily tablet often used to stave off infections from the virus, respectively brought in $4 billion and $819 million during the quarter. That’s higher than the roughly $3.84 billion and $720 million the average analyst had penciled in, according to Abrahams.
For this year, Gilead expects product sales between $29.6 billion to $30 billion and non‑GAAP diluted earnings per share in the range of $8.45 to $8.85. Those figures bracket analyst estimates, Abrahams noted, and come despite “policy headwinds” like the “most‑favored‑nation” pricing agreements that Gilead and others struck with the Trump Administration. The company previously said the financial impact from such agreements should be “manageable in 2026 and beyond.”
Yet, shortly after the earnings release, Gilead’s share price fell as much as 6% before clawing back some of those losses.
Abrahams guessed the dip may be related to “high hopes” for Yeztugo, a recently launched drug for HIV prevention that notched $96 million in the fourth quarter. In a note to clients, Abrahams wrote how analysts generally had thought sales would be closer to $106 million. Gilead said it’s now also predicting around $800 million in Yeztugo sales for 2026 — which the RBC team believes “fell short of the ‘whisper’ investor expectation” of $1 billion.
Still, Abrahams suspects Gilead executives “likely left themselves room to beat” expectations, a sentiment echoed by Salim Syed of Mizuho Securities.
The company is “probably being conservative here … though some may have wanted a higher number,” Salim wrote in his own note to clients.
Elsewhere, Gilead reported that fourth‑quarter sales from its cell therapy portfolio had decreased 6%, to $458 million, “reflecting ongoing competitive headwinds.” The portfolio’s two flagship products, Yescarta and Tecartus, were down by the mid‑ to high‑single digits.
That performance comes at a time of divergent investment in the cell therapy field. Novo Nordisk, Takeda Pharmaceutical and Galapagos each decided to exit the space in the back half of last year, whereas others have recently made multibillion‑dollar bets. Of late, companies have shown a particular interest in a type of cell therapy, “in vivo,” that’s viewed as far easier for manufacturers to produce and patients to tolerate. The treatments sold by Gilead, in contrast, are engineered outside the body, or “ex vivo.”
Just last week, Eli Lilly agreed to pay as much as $2.4 billion to buy the in‑vivo cell therapy specialist Orna Therapeutics. That acquisition follows similar deals from AbbVie and Bristol Myers Squibb.
For its part, Gilead has maintained that it remains committed to cell therapy research. The company is developing a multiple myeloma treatment through a collaboration with Arcellx, and recently bought into “in vivo” therapies by acquiring startup Interius BioTherapeutics.
“[W]e believe that cell therapy, as an innovative, state‑of‑the‑art technology, has tremendous potential that’s just starting to show itself — certainly in cancer, but in other diseases as well,” CEO Daniel O’Day told reporters last month at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference.
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