China to Continue Dominance of Global Ammonia Supply
•February 14, 2026
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Companies Mentioned
Why It Matters
China’s ammonia supremacy shapes global fertilizer pricing and supply security, influencing food production and downstream chemical industries worldwide.
Key Takeaways
- •China to produce ~33% of global ammonia by 2030
- •Fertilizer demand fuels sustained ammonia consumption
- •Low‑cost coal feedstock keeps production expenses low
- •Ammonia supports Chinese steel, plastics, and emissions control
- •Global buyers watch Chinese pricing amid energy volatility
Pulse Analysis
China’s ammonia market is more than a domestic commodity story; it is a linchpin of the global nitrogen cycle that underwrites food security and countless downstream chemicals. As the world’s largest consumer of nitrogen fertilizers, China’s agricultural sector relies on ammonia‑derived products such as urea and ammonium phosphate to sustain yields on limited arable land. This demand creates a stable, high‑volume consumption base that fuels continuous production, ensuring the country’s share of global output remains near a third through 2030.
Beyond the fields, ammonia powers a diverse industrial ecosystem. It serves as a precursor for nitric acid, a critical input for plastics, dyes, and synthetic fibers, while also playing a role in emissions‑control technologies that curb NOx output at power plants and factories. The cost structure of Chinese ammonia plants is heavily influenced by the availability of low‑cost coal, which supplies both feedstock and energy. This domestic advantage allows producers to maintain competitive margins even when international energy markets fluctuate, reinforcing China’s capacity to meet both internal and export demand.
The ramifications extend to global trade dynamics and pricing benchmarks. International buyers monitor Chinese ammonia prices closely, as shifts can ripple through fertilizer markets, affecting crop costs from the Americas to Africa. Competitors in Europe and the Middle East face pressure to improve efficiency or secure alternative feedstocks to stay viable. Moreover, China’s emphasis on ammonia for emission‑reduction aligns with broader sustainability goals, positioning the chemical as a bridge between industrial growth and environmental regulation. Stakeholders across agriculture, manufacturing, and energy sectors must therefore track China’s production trends to anticipate market movements and strategic opportunities.
China to continue dominance of global ammonia supply
13 February 2026 – By Mark Dowdall
The country is forecast to account for about one‑third of global ammonia production by 2030.
China is set to maintain its dominance in global ammonia supply through 2030, supported by strong agricultural and industrial demand.
The country’s extensive fertiliser requirements, broad manufacturing base and access to relatively low‑cost feedstock are expected to reinforce its position as both the world’s largest producer and consumer of ammonia, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s latest report, “Global Ammonia Market: Key Projects and Capacity Additions, 2026”, reveals that China is expected to account for about one‑third of global ammonia production by 2030.
Nivedita Roy, oil and gas analyst at GlobalData, comments:
“As the world’s largest consumer of nitrogen fertilisers, China relies heavily on ammonia as the key building block for products such as urea and ammonium phosphate, which support crop yields and national food security. With rising pressure to maintain stable harvests amid limited arable land in the country, demand for ammonia‑based fertilisers is expected to remain robust through the end of the decade.”
Beyond agriculture, ammonia demand in China is also supported by a wide range of industrial uses. It is an essential input for producing chemicals such as nitric acid, which is used in making plastics, dyes and other manufacturing materials. Ammonia is also used in emissions‑control systems at power plants and factories, helping reduce nitrogen‑oxide (NOx) pollution.
China’s large industrial base strengthens the case for continued high ammonia output. With major sectors such as steel, textiles, electronics and construction relying on chemical intermediates, steady ammonia supply supports broader manufacturing activity.
Roy concludes:
“Cost competitiveness further strengthens China’s supply outlook. Access to relatively low‑cost, domestically available feedstock – especially coal in many regions – helps keep production costs down in a process where energy and raw materials make up a large share of expenses. This advantage allows Chinese producers to sustain high output even when global energy prices fluctuate.”
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