Projected Prices and Volatility Factors for 2026

Key Takeaways

• Corn projected price $4.62, down $0.08 YoY.
• Soybean projected price $11.09, up $0.55 YoY.
• Volatility factors fall to 0.15 (corn) and 0.13 (soy).
• Lower volatility reduces revenue‑insurance premiums.
• Higher subsidies further cut farmer premium costs.

Pulse Analysis

The Risk Management Agency’s February price‑discovery process sets the baseline for federal crop‑insurance contracts each year. For 2026 the agency released a projected corn price of $4.62 per bushel, a modest $0.08 decline from 2025, while soybean projections rose to $11.09, a $0.55 increase. These figures are derived from the average settlement of December corn and November soybean futures throughout February, providing a market‑based reference that directly determines the dollar value of insurance guarantees. When projected prices rise, guarantees expand, which, all else equal, pushes premiums higher; the opposite holds when prices fall.

Volatility factors, calculated from the implied volatility of options over the final five trading days of February, quantify expected price swings during the insurance period. The 2026 factors dropped to 0.15 for corn and 0.13 for soybeans, the lowest levels observed in the past decade. Because revenue‑insurance premiums are positively correlated with volatility, this reduction translates into measurable cost savings for producers. Moreover, lower volatility signals a more stable price environment, allowing insurers to price risk more competitively and giving farmers a clearer picture of potential revenue outcomes.

Combined with the USDA’s increased subsidy rates for Supplemental Coverage Options (SCO) and Enhanced Coverage Options (ECO), the 2026 price and volatility outlook should produce lower net premium outlays for most policy configurations. Farmers can leverage farmdoc’s suite of decision tools—such as the Crop Insurance Evaluator and Premium Calculator—to model scenarios, compare SCO/ECO stacks, and optimize coverage levels before the March 15 sales‑closing deadline. As futures markets currently trade above the projected soybean price, expected revenues may exceed guaranteed amounts, further influencing the attractiveness of revenue‑protection products. Staying informed on these metrics will be critical for risk‑management planning throughout the 2026 crop year.