Monday: Silver Slides as Iran Tensions Ease

The episode opened with a sharp 4.1% slide in silver after Middle‑East tensions eased, while gold held steadier despite a CME margin hike. ANZ strategist Sunny Kamari noted that the margin increase has far less impact than in 1979 or 2011 because investment demand has deepened. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields nudged higher after political chatter around the Fed chair, and the dollar index rose modestly. These moves underscore how geopolitical calm and market structure can temper metal volatility even as central banks now account for roughly one‑fifth of global gold demand.

Turning to Asia, China’s fourth‑quarter GDP, retail sales and industrial production data painted a two‑speed recovery, with robust manufacturing offset by soft consumer spending. Analysts expect the government to lean on consumption‑boosting policies such as loan subsidies. In contrast, Malaysia posted a 5.7% year‑on‑year GDP rise, driven by diversified investment and a tight labour market, though exposure to US semiconductor tariffs remains a cautionary note. New Zealand’s latest CPI and PMI figures signaled hotter‑than‑expected inflation, prompting a modest upward revision to the Q4 inflation forecast, highlighting lingering price pressures in the Pacific region.

The deep‑dive segment reinforced a bullish outlook for gold and silver through 2026. Kamari argued that persistent geopolitical risk, doubts over Fed independence and structural US debt keep gold positioned as a safe‑haven asset, while silver benefits from its dual role as a monetary and industrial metal. Central‑bank purchases have doubled since 2022, stabilising demand at roughly 900‑950 tons annually, independent of price swings. Even a potential equity or AI‑driven market correction would likely boost gold allocations as investors seek diversification, suggesting that metal prices may remain resilient amid broader financial turbulence.