5 in 5 with ANZ
Monday: Silver Slides as Iran Tensions Ease
5 in 5 with ANZ
•January 18, 2026•8 min
0
5 in 5 with ANZ•Jan 18, 2026
Why It Matters
Understanding the drivers behind silver’s movement helps investors gauge the interplay between geopolitics and commodity markets, especially for those using precious metals as a hedge. As tensions ease, the shift away from safe‑haven assets could signal broader risk‑on sentiment, making this episode timely for portfolio risk management.
Key Takeaways
- •Silver dropped 4.1% as Middle East tensions eased
- •Central banks now buy 20% of global gold demand
- •China’s Q4 data shows two‑speed recovery, weaker retail
- •Malaysia forecasts 4.5% growth, despite US semiconductor tariff risk
- •New Zealand inflation hotter; CPI forecast raised to 0.5% Q4
Pulse Analysis
The episode opened with a sharp 4.1% slide in silver after Middle‑East tensions eased, while gold held steadier despite a CME margin hike. ANZ strategist Sunny Kamari noted that the margin increase has far less impact than in 1979 or 2011 because investment demand has deepened. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields nudged higher after political chatter around the Fed chair, and the dollar index rose modestly. These moves underscore how geopolitical calm and market structure can temper metal volatility even as central banks now account for roughly one‑fifth of global gold demand.
Turning to Asia, China’s fourth‑quarter GDP, retail sales and industrial production data painted a two‑speed recovery, with robust manufacturing offset by soft consumer spending. Analysts expect the government to lean on consumption‑boosting policies such as loan subsidies. In contrast, Malaysia posted a 5.7% year‑on‑year GDP rise, driven by diversified investment and a tight labour market, though exposure to US semiconductor tariffs remains a cautionary note. New Zealand’s latest CPI and PMI figures signaled hotter‑than‑expected inflation, prompting a modest upward revision to the Q4 inflation forecast, highlighting lingering price pressures in the Pacific region.
The deep‑dive segment reinforced a bullish outlook for gold and silver through 2026. Kamari argued that persistent geopolitical risk, doubts over Fed independence and structural US debt keep gold positioned as a safe‑haven asset, while silver benefits from its dual role as a monetary and industrial metal. Central‑bank purchases have doubled since 2022, stabilising demand at roughly 900‑950 tons annually, independent of price swings. Even a potential equity or AI‑driven market correction would likely boost gold allocations as investors seek diversification, suggesting that metal prices may remain resilient amid broader financial turbulence.
Episode Description
Silver prices fall sharply as tensions ease around Iran. China’s GDP figures today are expected to show a two-speed economy. Malaysia reports strong economic growth, and there’s more signs of economic heat in New Zealand.
In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari says central banks are now buying 20% of all gold, double the demand seen in 2022.
Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Show Notes
View our full set of relevant disclosures.
For the latest forms, rates and terms for our banking solutions, please visit Important resources and forms.
The Five in Five with ANZ podcast accessible via www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/ or your media player (“communication”) has been prepared on behalf of Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited ABN 11 005 357 522 (“ANZ”) or (if otherwise stated), by its subsidiary or branch (herein collectively referred to as ANZ Group).
The communication is a collaboration of expertise provided by an external independent contractor engaged by ANZ (“Host”) and analysts of ANZ Research (an ANZ Group independent research team) and/or other ANZ experts. While the Host has taken care to represent views consistent with ANZ Research in the creation of this podcast, the Host is independent to ANZ Group and any differing interpretations the Host may have are strictly those of the Host and not of ANZ Group.
The opinions and research contained in this communication are (a) not personal financial advice nor financial advice about any product or service; (b) provided for information only; and (c) intended to be general in nature and do not take into account your financial situation or goals.
This communication may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. Persons who receive this communication must inform themselves about and observe all relevant restrictions.
This communication is solely for informational purposes and nothing contained within is intended to be an invitation, solicitation or offer by ANZ Group to sell, or buy, receive or provide any product or service, or to participate in a particular trading strategy.
Distribution of this communication to you is only as may be permissible by the laws of your jurisdiction and is not directed to or intended for distribution or use by recipients resident or located in jurisdictions where its use or distribution would be contrary to those laws or regulations, or in jurisdictions where ANZ Group would be subject to additional licensing or registration requirements. Further, any products and services mentioned in this communication may not be available in all countries.
ANZ Group in no way provides any personal financial, legal, taxation or investment advice to you in connection with any product or service discussed in this communication. Before making any investment decision, recipients should seek independent financial, legal, tax and other relevant advice having regard to their particular circumstances.
Whilst care has been taken in the preparation of this communication and the information contained within is believed to be accurate, ANZ Group does not represent or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, except with respect to information concerning ANZ Group. Further, ANZ Group does not accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect the accuracy of the information in this communication.
Preparation of this communication and the opinions expressed in it may involve material elements of subjective judgement and analysis. Unless specifically stated otherwise: they are current on the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice; and all price information is indicative only. Any opinions expressed in this communication are subject to change at any time without notice.
ANZ Group does not guarantee the performance of any product mentioned in this communication. All investments entail a risk and may result in both profits and losses. Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance. Any products and services described in this communication may not be suitable for all investors and transacting in these products or services may be considered risky.
ANZ Group expressly disclaims any responsibility and shall not be liable for any loss, damage, claim, liability, proceedings, cost or expense (Liability) arising directly or indirectly and whether in tort (including negligence), contract, equity or otherwise (including infringement of any third party rights) out of or in connection with this communication and your use of it to the extent permissible under relevant law. The contents of this communication have not been reviewed by any regulatory body or authority in any jurisdiction.
ANZ Group may have an interest in the subject matter of this communication. They may receive fees from customers for dealing in any products or services described in this communication, and their staff and introducers of business may share in such fees or remuneration that may be influenced by total sales, at all times received and/or apportioned in accordance with local regulatory requirements. Further, they or their customers may have or have had interests or long or short positions in any products or services described in this communication and may at any time make purchases and/or sales in them as principal or agent, as well as act (or have acted) as a market maker in such products. This communication is published in accordance with ANZ Group’s policies on conflicts of interest and ANZ Group maintains appropriate information barriers to control the flow of information between businesses within the group.
Your ANZ Group point of contact can assist with any questions about this communication including for further information on these disclosures of interest.
ANZ holds an Australian Financial Services licence no. 234527. For a copy of ANZ's Financial Services Guide please click hereor request from your ANZ point of contact.
0
Comments
Want to join the conversation?
Loading comments...