Adrian Day: 'Absolutely' Bullish on Gold & Why Oil Is 'Extremely Cheap'

Why It Matters

A sustained shift away from the dollar and the rise of gold‑backed digital tokens signal a structural boost to gold demand, offering investors a compelling hedge and upside in a low‑oil, high‑inflation environment.

Key Takeaways

• Central banks increasingly shift reserves from dollars to gold.
• Tether bought more gold last year than any central bank.
• Gold cycles last a decade; current bull market still early.
• Retail and generalist investors remain under‑exposed to precious metals.
• Oil prices are extremely low, boosting commodity investment appeal.

Summary

Adrian Day, founder of Adrian Day Asset Management, reiterated his unwavering bullish stance on gold, arguing that the precious metal’s long‑term cycle remains in its early phase and that the current bull market has ample room to run. He highlighted two dominant, price‑agnostic buyers—central banks diversifying away from the U.S. dollar and the stable‑coin issuer Tether, which purchased more gold last year than any sovereign reserve manager.

Day explained that central banks have been steadily reducing dollar exposure, dropping from roughly 78% of foreign‑reserve holdings in 2000 to about 65% today, driven by concerns over fiscal profligacy and the weaponisation of the dollar. Simultaneously, Tether’s launch of a gold‑backed stablecoin promises to lock additional physical gold into the market, creating a new demand catalyst. He also noted that global gold supply is expanding modestly—about 2% annually—while demand from sectors like solar‑panel‑driven silver use and sovereign reserve diversification is rising.

Illustrative examples included Saudi Arabia’s rare silver purchases, Russia’s decision to hold zero percent of reserves in dollars, and Elemental’s dividend option paid in Tether’s gold‑backed token. Day warned that retail and generalist fund participation in precious metals remains limited, meaning the market’s upside is not yet capped by broad speculative inflows.

The implications are clear: continued dollar de‑risking and the emergence of gold‑linked digital assets could push gold prices higher, while persistently low oil prices make broader commodity exposure attractive. Investors should consider increasing exposure to gold and related assets before retail demand catches up and potentially accelerates the rally.

Original Description

Recorded on: February 25, 2026

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Adrian Day to the show. Adrian Day is the CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management and Manager of the EuroPacific Gold Fund. The discussion centers on the current state of gold, silver, and global commodities markets, with Day providing deep insights into current investment trends and opportunities. Day remains bullish on gold, citing historical market cycles and key buyers like central banks and Tether. He notes that central banks are actively diversifying away from the US dollar due to concerns about government profligacy and potential asset weaponization. The trend of dollar reserve reduction has been ongoing for years, accelerated by events like the confiscation of Russian central bank assets.

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Regarding silver, Day sees potential but with more risks compared to gold. He highlights a genuine physical deficit in the silver market and increasing demand from sectors like solar panel manufacturing. However, he cautions that high prices might incentivize manufacturers to seek more efficient alternatives. In the broader commodity complex, Day finds significant value opportunities. He points out that commodities are trading near 100-year lows relative to financial assets, with underinvestment in sectors like oil, gas, and copper creating potential for price appreciation. He emphasizes the long lead times for new commodity projects and the challenges of rapidly increasing production.

Day's investment approach focuses on global markets, with a current preference for reducing US exposure and exploring opportunities in markets like Britain, Singapore, and Hong Kong. He remains particularly interested in gold mining stocks, especially mid-tier producers in stable jurisdictions.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 - Introduction

00:00:50 - Bullish Case for Gold

00:01:58 - Gold Market Cycles

00:04:04 - Central Bank Buying Reasons

00:10:27 - Tether Gold Stablecoin

00:14:10 - Dollar Reserve Decline

00:18:08 - Gold Settlement Potential

00:22:33 - Silver Market Insights

00:30:20 - Commodity Value Opportunities

00:38:20 - Gold Mining Investments

00:45:24 - Other Commodities Analysis

00:50:53 - Oil and Gas Plays

00:53:52 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Website: https://adrianday.com/

Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world. He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global and resource investing. He is frequently interviewed by the press, domestically and abroad. He is a popular speaker and is frequently invited to lecture at financial conferences and seminars around the world. His pleasures include fine dining, reading (especially history), and the opera.

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