Final Thoughts on 2026 Crop Insurance Decisions

Why It Matters

Higher subsidies reshape risk‑management economics, making optimal insurance mix critical for farm profitability. Understanding these changes helps producers protect revenue while minimizing unnecessary premium costs.

Key Takeaways

• 2026 corn price forecast $4.62 per bushel
• Soybean price forecast $11.09 per bushel
• Subsidies increased for COMBO, SCO, and ECO products
• ECO-95% recommended as primary coverage option
• Consider replacing RP with SCO/ECO to reduce regret

Pulse Analysis

The 2026 crop insurance landscape has shifted dramatically due to unprecedented subsidy boosts for COMBO, SCO and ECO policies. Farmers now face a more attractive premium structure, but the decision matrix is more complex. Accurate price discovery—corn projected at $4.62 and soybeans at $11.09 per bushel—provides a baseline for evaluating coverage levels. By integrating these forecasts with the new subsidy schedule, producers can model net benefits more precisely, ensuring that premium outlays align with expected market conditions.

Farmdoc’s economists argue that the ECO‑95% policy offers the most efficient blend of downside protection and cost efficiency for 2026. Their "probability of regret" analysis quantifies the risk of under‑insuring when traditional Revenue Protection (RP) is reduced in favor of SCO or ECO options. The study shows that, given the higher subsidies, the net benefit of an ECO‑centric strategy often outweighs the modest basis risk associated with SCO. This insight empowers growers to tailor coverage that maximizes payout potential while preserving cash flow during volatile price periods.

For the broader agricultural sector, these recommendations signal a pivot toward more sophisticated, data‑driven risk management. Extension services and agribusiness lenders are likely to incorporate the updated insurance models into their advisory portfolios, influencing loan terms and farm budgeting. As the March 15 deadline approaches, stakeholders should leverage Farmdoc’s payment evaluator and premium calculator tools to run scenario analyses. Early adoption of the recommended strategies can lock in superior protection, positioning farms for resilience amid the evolving commodity market.

Original Description

Join University of Illinois agricultural economists Nick Paulson and Gary Schnitkey, along with host Todd Gleason, for their final thoughts and recommendations on 2026 crop insurance decisions ahead of the March 15th deadline.

With significant subsidy increases changing the landscape of crop insurance this year, the farmdoc team breaks down the numbers to help you maximize your risk protection and net benefits.

In this webinar, we cover:

• 2026 Price Discovery Results: Final projected prices (Corn: $4.62, Soybeans: $11.09) and volatility factors.

• Crop Insurance Changes: Higher subsidies for COMBO products, SCO, and ECO.

• SCO & ECO Strategies: Why the farmdoc team strongly recommends considering ECO-95% for 2026.

• The "Probability of Regret": Does it make sense to lower your underlying Revenue Protection (RP) coverage and replace it with SCO and ECO? We look at the net benefits, downside risk, and basis risk of this strategy.

• Viewer Q&A: Answering common questions about APH yields versus county yields, optional units, and more.

🔗 Resources Mentioned in this Video:

• Access the farmdoc Crop Insurance Payment Evaluator and Premium Calculator: https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/crop-insurance

• Read the latest agricultural analysis: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/

Projected Prices and Volatility Factors for 2026: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/03/projected-prices-and-volatility-factors-for-2026.html

👥 Presenters:

• Nick Paulson, Agricultural Economist, University of Illinois

• Gary Schnitkey, Agricultural Economist, University of Illinois

• Todd Gleason, Farm Broadcaster, University of Illinois Extension

🤝 Thank You to Our Sponsors:

TIAA Center for Farmland Research, CoBank, Compeer Financial, Farm Credit Illinois, FS GROWMARK, Illinois Corn Growers Association, Illinois Soybean Association, and John Deere.

📚 Educational Partners:

Illinois FBFM, University of Illinois Extension, Department of Agricultural & Consumer Economics (ACE), College of ACES, and the Gardner Agriculture Policy Program.

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