Anthropic's Mythos Safety Message: Alarm or IPO Hype?
The highest signal observation pushing p(Doom) right now is the inability to determine if Anthropic’s new Mythos model safety messaging is designed to genuinely sound an alarm, or to hype their valuation in advance of IPO. The ambiguity says all there is to say about this moment.
OpenClaw Offers No Unique Advantage over Claude or Codex
I have yet to find anything of substance that can be done in OpenClaw, that can't be just as easily accomplished in Claude Code or Codex. What am I missing?
US Reframes Iran Conflict: From Power Play to Nuclear Deterrence
The sleight-of-hand shifting the narrative about the Iran war from American assertion of power, control and profiteering toward nuclear deterrence has been absolutely masterful. Surprised it took them so long to change their tune.
Markets Are Humanity’s Unintended ASI Profit Machine
Wake up, people. AGI / ASI has been with us for centuries, and has escaped its cage before. The ‘market’ is the greatest ASI ever birthed by humans, iterating on the gradient of ‘profit maximization’. Financialization is ASI on steroids; the...
gpt-5.4-mini Cuts Cost, Boosts Speed and Accuracy
Used #gepa #optimize_anything to replace sonnet calls with gpt-5.4-mini calls for transcript entity extraction. Needed 2 passes on full pod transcripts but gpt-5.4-mini still cheaper / faster by ~2x / 5x and yielded better results.
Trump’s Policies Engineered Massive Oil Spike and Recession
To @anasalhajji ‘s point, you’d be hard pressed to engineer a more perfect recipe for a major sustained spike in crude & products, with accompanying global recession and market crash, than what Trump’s crew has unleashed. The 12-D chess of...
AI Boosts Consultants, but Blame Liability Drives Demand
I believe AI can produce highly insightful and competent consulting work. But the value of consulting is not so much the consulting as the outsourcing of blame/liability. Until we can sue AI agents for poor outcomes, there will be a...
State Funding Drives Long-Term Science, Innovation, and Flourishing
Such an important point. Which is why @MazzucatoM ‘s thesis about the importance of state investments in long-term, risky fundamental science is so critical to long-term innovation and human flourishing.
Users Spending Thousands Monthly on OpenClaw API Tokens
How are y’all affording OpenClaw? I have 2 Claude max $200 accounts and I’m maxing them both out weekly in CC. Are you guys spending $4-5000 / month on API tokens?
De-Dollarization Gold Theory Dead, I Remain Defensive
The de-dollarization thesis driving gold may be well and truly dead. I'm acting defensively. I have failed - once again - to internalize a theory of mind for pathological narcissists and psychopaths.
Supply Shocks Could Trigger Crises Bigger Than COVID
If a meaningful fraction of the analyses I’m seeing on major supply disruptions to global energy, food and pharmaceutical inputs is real, the humanitarian crises and government responses that are about to unfold will make COVID mayhem feel quaint.
China’s Integrated Strategy Beats Fragmented Western Approach
🎯“China treats electricity, critical minerals, manufacturing, defence and infrastructure as one strategic system. Credit, permitting, refining, fabrication and demand scale together. Western systems fragment the same problem across central banks, markets, regulators and election cycles, assuming price signals will coordinate what...
Beijing's Choice: Strategic Counter or Patient Wait
The only question that matters in the next few weeks is whether Beijing concludes that the Iran escalation cutting off 40% of Chinese oil imports was deliberate and therefore demands a strategic response, or concludes that it was reckless and...
BTC's Iran Reaction: Pure Signal, No Noise
$BTC reaction to the Iran news is all signal, no noise. What exactly is the use case again?
