US Stealing Iranian Drones Exposes Domestic Tech Lag
This article makes it seem like a win that the US stole Iranian drone technology. But how damning is it that we were in a position where their tech was ahead of us? That we had to steal? https://t.co/xWqi7w0np8
Post‑crisis: Labor Market Still Harsher for Low‑skill Workers
The crisis is over. Can we go back to understanding the labor market as generally worse for less educated workers now?
Ukrainian Drone Operators Outsmart NATO, Destroy 17 Vehicles
"During a NATO exercise in Estonia last year, 10 Ukrainian drone operators role-playing as the enemy mock-destroyed 17 armored vehicles and disabled two allied battalions in a day. NATO forces couldn’t even locate the operators." https://t.co/z00Wo2HqeF
US Tariffs Fluctuated Over 50 Times in Months
"In the months that followed, US tariff policy changed more than 50 times, spanning rate increases, rate decreases, new product exemptions, and new product inclusions." https://t.co/qeG5V7fXwy
AI Labor Disruption Is Inevitable, Regulation Can't Stop It
There is an unavoidability to whatever disruptions AI will bring to the labor market. You can regulate domestically but not globally. In manufacturing we have some control at ports of entry. The digital economy & knowledge work have no ports...
Grant Licenses to Producers if Export Ban Looms
If an oil export ban is coming, they should grant export licenses to anyone increasing production
Supply‑Shock Focus Increases Inflation Anxiety, Drives Hawk Turns
If you think demand played a large roll in the pandemic inflation, you are a lot less worried today. If you think it was mostly supply shocks, well you are more worried about supply shocks being inflationary. This explains some...
Markets Dip; Fed Intervention Likely Needed Soon
Markets didn't like that. Going to need to trot out some fed representative and clean it up soon is my guess.
Fed Should Treat Inflation Shocks Like Oil Companies
Powell says US oil companies won't raise production unless they believe oil price shocks will be persistent and they don't believe this. Why can't the Fed say the same?
Tariff‑induced Inflation Likely Not Just a Temporary Shock
There's not really any reason why we should think that tariff driven inflation shocks need to be seen to be proven they are temporary.
Overemphasizing Supply Shocks Fuels Policymaker Fear
Don't understand why another supply shock should affect the path of rates. Excessive focus on supply shocks as an explanation for pandemic inflation is a problem. Its causing excess fear from poliymakers today.
Today's AI Is the Model T of Technology
Current state of AI like a Model T is a nice way to think about it.
Falling Labor Supply Likely Slashes Future Startup Rates
There's no sign of it yet, but I believe the slowdown in labor supply will eventually bring down the startup rate substantially. The path from demographics -> dynamism is what a growing body of evidence shows. https://t.co/dcSXlkwVXt
Use Grok to Clarify Arguments Without Full Context
When someone is making an argument and I don't really get the full context, Grok is usually very helpful in explaining that the argument is about.
Twitter Adds Unlabeled Sponsored Posts to Following Feed
Twitter has switched to showing people you don’t follow in your following feed, without saying it’s an ad
AI Still Falls Short of Becoming Daily Blogging Star
Why hasn’t AI become a leader at blogging yet? How long (if ever) until there’s an AI thinker you like to read every day? Color me skeptical on that
Calls for H‑1B Reform Amid Baseless Competition Claims
This is where he started. "Those who compete with H-1Bs don't have jobs.....Ok they have doordash jobs". When confronted by data he runs from his words. Evidence free exaggeration We make the case for reforming H-1Bs without such disreputable behavior https://t.co/bKhl2nfJ1g
Seeing AI Risks Implies Belief in Prevention
You don’t hear a lot of “AI will do a lot of good, but also a lot of bad things. But there’s really nothing we can do about it”. Identifying bads seems correlated with a belief they can be prevented...
Narrator’s Bias Skews AI Research Amid Job Threats
Wisdom from @JedKolko on AI: "Today, when researchers, journalists, consultants, and content producers can easily see how their own jobs are exposed to AI, this "narrator's bias" could color the interpretation and tone of research findings." https://t.co/oU8obAdw1L
Atomic Bomb Might Have Rendered WWII Mobilization Unnecessary
Please humor me if this is a naive question. You often hear a defense of industrialization that appeals to WW2 level mobilization: we should be able to do that again. But would that have been necessary back then had we...
Significant Break Identified in Time Series Data
We will of course need careful empirical analysis to be sure, but this is a very strong and telling break in the time series. https://t.co/r6avYSPdM6
Weak Job Market Affects All Young Workers, Not Just Grads
Everyone is trying to explain the mystery of why the job market is weak for college grads, most blaming AI. But that IS NOT THE MYSTERY. The mystery is why is it weak for young workers of ALL EDUCATION LEVELS...
Revive US Manufacturing to Secure National Defense
Re: concerns about how loss of manufacturing capacity in the US has put national security at risk in the case of a war. It seems like looking how to address shortages we observe now, with so much US-armed global conflict...
Choose: AI Panic or US Debt Concern, Not Both
It seems difficult to say we should worry about AI and the US debt. Seems like its going to be one or the other.
Populism's Anti‑competition Myth Fuels Immigration Misunderstanding
There is a core idea underlying a lot of populism: nobody should have to compete anymore. The problem is, reducing competition is a zero (or even negative) sum game. This misunderstanding drives a lot of confusion about high skilled immigration. https://t.co/sYvbZRJAXJ
Higher Real Wages Benefit Workers as Consumers
People seem to have forgotten that workers are consumers. Rising real wages is pro worker too, even if some tasks get replaced.
Effective High‑skill Immigration Policy Requires
One of my most important messages about high skilled immigration is that you have to do the policy right. And to do that, you have to accurately understand the economics of high skilled immigration and the practical realities and mechanism...
Redistribution Has Actually Grown, Contrary to Stingy Myths
One of the responses I got to my AI and the human touch piece was to claim it was absurd to imagine the government would redistribute more in the event of worse outcomes for some because the US is so...
Third-Generation Auto Bailouts: How Long Until They're Considered?
How many years away are we from the third generation of auto bailouts being on the table?
Mistaking Short‑Term Labor Shortage for Full Employment Undermines Jobs
I disagree, but I don't think David is alone in this. To me, the biggest risk of confusing a temporary labor supply shortage that drives up inflation with full employment was that it would undermine actual full employment. We are...
Explore 100+ Years of Industry Economic Geography Data
If you are interested in over 100 years of economic history and data on these geographic trends for this industry, I have some here for you: https://t.co/kayw0VoAML
AI’s Growth Hinges on How Hard New Ideas Become to Discover
How much economic growth will get from AI? This is massively speculative. However, in a new piece today @ngoldschlag and myself make the case we can learn something about this from an academic economics debate about whether "ideas are getting...
Political Gridlock Stalls $22B US EV Investment
"Last year companies canceled $22 billion in planned investments in electric vehicle manufacturing, batteries or critical minerals in the United States...." Political sustainability limits industrial policy efficacy. https://t.co/RROrBFwACq
Tariffs Won’t Drive Reindustrialization Without Consistent Policy
Its a warning shot to people who think tariffs are going to secure reindustrialization. Is it sustainable? Industrial policy can't be on and off and work.
Ford Repurposes Idle Plant for Batteries Amid Market Growth
Ford is going to try to make a go at batteries in its idled plant. I find it hard to be optimistic about that, but it's at least a growing market https://t.co/37Ns45bbLE
Tariffs Fail Without Consensus, Chaos Undermines Industrial Policy
The problem with "give tariffs time" as a plan is that they have been implemented in a way that won't stand up to courts, there is not a bipartisan consensus supporting them, and voters hate them now because they have...