Trump’s Withdrawal Could End Middle East Wars, Benefit All
This could be the offramp the world needs. You can think of it as the best outcome for everyone, under the circumstances. (1) From MAGA’s perspective, if Trump declares victory here and moves on, the US won’t waste yet more blood and treasure in the Middle East. It won’t invade Iran. It also won’t take all the blame for the ongoing global supply chain crisis. It just pulls out and lets everyone work out the regional security equation for themselves. Trump can say he’s fulfilled both his campaign promises: stop Iran from getting a nuke, but also no endless Middle Eastern wars. (2) From Israel’s perspective, Iran has now been shown to be quite hostile to its neighbors, and its military has been substantially degraded. Stopping now is good. Otherwise there’s a danger of overreacting to Oct 7 as Americans overreacted to Sept 11. Israel can stand back and call it a win, because after a US pullout, Iran will have much less excuse for holding the Strait hostage. (3) From the Iranian diaspora’s perspective, it’s unfortunately clear that the current war isn’t going to result in liberalization. Further attacks would push Iran further into fundamentalism, making it even harder to eventually do a liberal reformation. (4) From the long-suffering Iranian people’s perspective, ending the war now would also save countless lives. Otherwise they’ll get hit by friendly fire and drafted by the regime to fight for fundamentalism. (5) Finally, from the world’s perspective, once the US declares victory and goes home, substantial diplomatic pressure will be applied to Iran to simply open the Strait of Hormuz and allow ships through. Iran’s leadership has shown, perhaps surprisingly, that they care about global public opinion…and they would be on the hook for the suffering of billions of people if the Strait remains blocked. TLDR: if Trump declares victory and leaves, Iran no longer has any excuse for blocking the Strait and holding the global economy hostage. Let the matter be worked out diplomatically with pressure from all the 100+ affected countries on Iran. America shouldn’t have to spend a single cent more, or send a single soldier more, to the Middle East.
AI: Handy Shortcut, But Overuse Breeds Hidden Complexity
AI is a shortcut. So it’s useful. But it’s lazy. So it speeds execution. But it hides complexity. So you want to use it. But definitely not overuse it. So the user of AI often loves it. But the reader of AI often hates it.
India Gains Edge Amid Global Energy Crisis
It's a global energy crisis. But India is far better positioned than it was in 2020. https://t.co/P8A9RIuuPz
Learn Elon Musk’s Strategies From First Dedicated Book
How does Elon do it? This is the first book that studies that. It summarizes how he operates. Some is of course intrinsic to Elon. But some might be learned. By you, if you read this. Check it out: https://t.co/u9MR80sWtJ https://t.co/sLtx5WvwjI
Iran’s Victory Could Collapse Petrodollar, End US Era
If Iran wins, it's the end of five eras. 1991-2026: the unipolar era 1974-2026: the petrodollar era 1945-2026: the postwar era 1776-2026: the union era 1492-2026: the Western era Specifically, the end of the petrodollar (1974) would also be the end of the unipolar moment (1991)...
Kalanick's Resilience: Rebuilt, Returned Stronger After Loss
Travis Kalanick is one of the greatest entrepreneurs of all time. The bad guys took his company. But they never broke his spirit. He rebuilt from scratch. And now he’s back.
Inside Trust AI Thrives; Outside Requires Crypto Verification
AI inside, crypto outside. Within your tribe's trusted perimeter, you give AI all the context and let it figure it out. But outside your tribe's trusted perimeter, you hit a wall of AI spam. Now you need cryptographic verification to see what's...
Crypto's Code‑Based Order Preserves Rights Amid Failing Systems
The purpose of crypto is to build a code-based order, because the rules-based order is unfortunately collapsing. That code-based order covers some of what international law once protected. It guarantees property rights, smart contracts, rule-of-code, privacy, secure voting, and user accounts...
AI May Self‑Prompt, Yet Humans Remain Goal‑Setters
NOT YOUR KEYS, NOT YOUR BOTS The fundamental question is whether AI stays on the leash. Namely: will AI prompt itself? Obviously, in some sense it already does. Since Deepseek, consumer interfaces have been showing the internal monologues after you ask an AI...
Zero‑Knowledge: The Privacy Shield Against AI Surveillance
From AI to ZK. Artificial intelligence is the attack. Zero knowledge is the defense. AI takes advantage of the slightest slip. ZK does not let anything slip. AI decodes all the data. ZK encrypts all the data. AI is the surveillance state. ZK is the sovereign individual.
Tech Decentralizes: Unicorns Can Thrive Anywhere
Silicon Valley is a lagging indicator. Tech moved out of Delaware. Now it’s moving out of California. There are hundreds of other places. You can build a unicorn anywhere. So: cut bait on failed states. Our destiny is decentralization. That’s what the Internet means. https://t.co/9gygAEDScs
Crypto's Rise: Replacing Failing States with On‑Chain Order
I have never been more bullish on crypto. Because the rules-based order is collapsing and the code-based order is rising. So the short term price doesn’t matter. As international law breaks down, we will need not just onchain currencies, but onchain companies....
Open‑weight AI + Obsidian + Crypto Enables Personal Private Programmable Stack
PERSONAL PRIVATE PROGRAMMABLE I’ve been thinking more about the intersection of Claude Code and Obsidian. There is an upcoming tech stack here that I’m calling personal private programmable. Here’s a sketch of the idea. First, if you squint ahead a few months, we...
Farcaster Returns Investor Money, Praising Decentralized Vision
As a Farcaster investor, can confirm: money is coming back to investors. Dan and the team built something genuinely amazing, perhaps the best decentralized social protocol. He's independently wealthy from Coinbase, and could have done whatever he wanted, but he decided...
Bitcoin's Blockchain: Immutable History for the Winners
Winners write history. So: if you do not write the history, you will not win. Fortunately, the Bitcoin blockchain is the most unfalsifiable form of history ever invented. A cryptohistory.
