Power Law Holds Even for Billion‑Dollar Venture Funds
Power law still holds at scale - just at a completely different magnitude. David Clark is an LP who would know, and in the latest episode of Origins, he brought the math to back it up. This is what I always appreciate about him. He puts real data behind how power law can still work - even in large, multi-stage funds - and what LPs have to believe to underwrite them. If you’re going to allocate to billion-dollar vehicles, the assumptions matter. What stood out to me in this conversation: → What exit markets have to look like for these funds to work → How a $6B growth fund can still produce fund returners → And why a return-driven mindset forces a very different lens than IRR alone It’s a level of detail we don’t often see—and a useful blueprint, whether or not you agree with it. Zooming out, Nicholas Chirls and I also get into: 👉 Why 2025 marks the first meaningful industry-wide contraction in modern venture—and what comes next 👉 The fund survival gauntlet: only 1/2 of Fund Is make it to Fund II, and ~17% make it to Fund IV 👉 What separates managers who go the distance from those who quietly wind down The pyramid is narrowing. The question is where your fund sits in it. 🎧 ~15 min listen linked in comments.
Post‑Correction Venture: Fewer Managers, Bigger Funds, Cycle Rebounds
What happens to venture after a major correction? "Fewer managers, but bigger." — David Clark (CIO, VenCap International plc ) called this back in 2023, and the data is proving out. As an LP in top franchise firms like Andreessen...
Decode the LP‑GP Language Gap: Survival vs Longevity
LPs & GPs are often having the same conversation, but not speaking the same language. In my convo w/ @chudson & @miafarnham, we talked about the LP/GP “language gap.” As Charles put it: “Once you learn to decode it, it’s actually quite...
Venture Splits: Platform Funds vs Early‑Stage Specialists
“I don’t understand why we call both things venture capital.” — Dan G. on multi-stage mega funds (or the “big banks” as Nicholas Chirls calls them) vs smaller managers dedicated to the craft of early-stage venture. We had a super...
Navigating the ‘Second Desert’ Between Emerging and Established VCs
I wish I could write as well as Charles Hudson - 🙏 for talking about the 'second desert in venture capital'. It is much harder than people think to go from Fund IV - VIII or as Charles says... "no...
Vast VC‑LP Matching Opportunities Revealed in New List
Wow - that's a lot of opportunities for VCs and LPs to find each other...👇 🙏 Pavel Prata for collecting this list
Venture Funding Hits Decade Low Amid AI Optimism
For decades, venture capital has expanded practically by default. More funds, more managers, more capital. Today, fundraising, firm formation, and LP participation are all moving in the same direction: down. After 20+ years, we are now facing the first meaningful...
LPs Concentrate, Co‑invest Rises; Small Funds Must Differentiate
ICYMI: Re-sharing Dan Gray's badass survey on the state of fundraising👇. He puts data behind how the current fundraising low wasn't just a "hard year" for smaller funds, but a structural shift in LPs changing behavior. Key takeaways from 48...
Small Funds, Big Impact: Strategy Beats Size
Fund size is your strategy. @micahjay1 + team at @fcollective demonstrate the art & super power of this. 5 funds & 20 $B+ outcomes, yet every fund <$100M. Today, that’s practically rebellious. All this + what 'unsexy' sectors are quietly delivering...
Small Seed Funds Punch Above Their $100M Weight
Fund size is your strategy. You hear it all the time because it's true, and Micah Rosenbloom and the team at Founder Collective demonstrate the art and the super power of this. Five funds and twenty $B+ outcomes, yet every...
Venture Opportunities Are Bigger Than Ever, Despite Competition
Check out the full early-stage analysis in my LinkedIn article here + convo w @kirstenagreen (@ForerunnerVC) on how despite the competition, the opportunity in venture has never been greater. https://t.co/X5nmVC8dQU
Megas Dominate Series A Deals over $20M
Series A: Most priced A rounds cluster around $20M. Below this, dedicated A funds lead the majority of rounds. ~40% of priced A rounds land in the $20M+ bucket & this is where the megas come flooding, leading or co-leading more...
Mega-Funds Dominate Rare $20M+ Seed Rounds
New data on Seed & Series A: how many deals are getting done & at what check size👇 Seed: ~90% of priced Seed rounds are $20M: Though just a tiny fraction of the mkt, 70% of priced Seed rounds include mega-fund lead...
A16z Leads, Top Four Funds Dominate Seed and Series A
Top 10 Most Active Investors at Series A: Out of the 90 mega-funds we looked at, @a16z, @generalcatalyst, @lightspeedvp & @sequoia all remain in the top 5 across both Seed and A - with a16z far outrunning the pack at...
Who’s Driving Seed Deals: Top 10 Active Investors
Top 10 Most Active Investors at Seed: https://t.co/2pB2bbv0yP