Swap Lines Are Loans, Not Gifts, Fueling Dollar Demand
For those new to swap lines due to recent headlines, swap lines are not USD “gifts”, they are USD “loans”. The difference? Loans need to be paid back. And as such create dollar demand. Swap lines dollarize the world…they don’t dedollarize the world.
Criticizing Central Bankers Is Pointless if You Oppose Them
It’s tough to take criticisms of how well a central banker is performing their duties if the criticism is coming from someone who doesn’t think central bankers should exist in the first place.
Savoring Espresso Abroad, People‑watching Becomes Art
What is better than drinking espresso in a cafe in a foreign capital watching the locals go about their day…?🤔 https://t.co/arrrFWV1Os
Helium Powers Chips, Not Just Party Balloons
How many people know that Helium is more important to the semiconductor industry than it is to birthday balloons…? 🤔
Athens Handles 500 Sunday Arrivals with Two Officers
The great thing about Athens is that they have 2 customs officers working to process 500 arrivals on a Sunday morning https://t.co/JWeY7qLVt6
Europeans Face Extended Home Stays Amid Restrictions
There’s going to be a lot of Europeans staying at home…one way or the other
Iran's Decentralized Leadership Fuels Mixed Signals, Byzantine Problem
One of the reasons we keep getting mixed messages regarding Iran is bc Iran’s leadership was decentralized as a strategic defense. It’s worked to some extent. But it also means they don’t have a unified message and are arguing internally....
True Debate Survives Only Over Dinner With Friends
Sharing the "Think" section from this weeks release of "Think, Laugh, Cry" below... THINK Once a month, three of us sit down to dinner. We eat well. We drink a little. And then we argue. Not argue the way social media argues. Not...
Missing Protection at Market Peaks Leads to Regret
Remember 3 weeks ago when you were mad at yourself for not buying protection/insurance when markets were at their all time highs and the vix was in the teens...? https://t.co/xBbSHvbDuL
Retail Adoption of Dollar Stablecoins Fuels Hyper‑Dollarization
It will be foreign sovereigns seeking to de-dollarize while their citizens seek to dollarize. place your bets...
US Might Use Goldfinger‑Style Tactics on Iranian Energy
How many have considered the US could employ a modified Goldfinger strategy as it relates Iranian energy…?
Broaden View: Compare Foreign Holdings Across All Sovereigns
If you routinely post a chart of the foreign holdings of US Treasuries but never post a chart of the foreign holdings of other global Sovereigns, you are missing the forest for the trees. https://t.co/GMjr60j0dV
Trump, Rutte May Bring Up Greenland in Talks
In addition to US bases in Europe...You think maybe...just maybe...Greenland might be on the list of topics for Trump and Rutte to discuss today?
Future Impacts Already Set Despite Strait Reopening
Even if the Strait fully opens and stays open…the ramifications 6-9 months down the road are already baked in. https://t.co/wlXmGv0rls
NYC’s Financial Hub Likely to Relocate to Texas
If and when the end of this Fourth Turning comes, and the Financial Capital of the World leaves NYC, it is more likely to end up moving to Texas than somewhere in Asia. https://t.co/CrIB1ON3YH
Excited for Lyn Alden's Sci‑Fi Take on Imperial Credits
Looking forward to reading this Sci Fi release by @LynAldenContact Especially the parts related to Imperial Credits…😅 https://t.co/DV7HOaIKLB
Debt to Ourselves Just Excuses Unlimited Money Printing
When an argument is made that "Our debt doesn't matter because we owe it to ourselves"...that is code for "we can print the money and just debase the currency"...
Stop Overthinking; Your Long Twitter Rant Isn’t Unique
If u are 5 pages deep into a piece you are planning to post on twitter detailing why the US & USD are about to fail bc the Pentagon doesn't realize Iran has mountains & air craft carriers are obsolete,...
Double Standards: Putin's Pretext vs US Invasion Claims
Apparently Putin was justified in invading Ukraine bc of something “NATO might some day do” even though NATO never threatened to do it… But the U.S. was not justified in invading Iran bc of something “they might some day do” even...
NFP Never Released When Markets Are Closed
When is the last time they released NFP on a day the market was closed?
Focus on Ships that Departed a Month Earlier
This is not in reference to ships arriving in the Strait of Hormuz. This is in reference to the ones that left a month ago…
Final Ships Arrive, Forcing Forgotten Truths to Resurface
The last ships arrive this weekend. Then a lot of hard forgotten truths get relearned. https://t.co/XWTqCzutYT
AI Race: Karp Warns Second Place Means Extinction
‘Second place is extinction’: This is how Palantir Tech CEO Alex Karp frames the artificial intelligence race between the US & China. Do you agree?
Reserve Currency Advantage No Longer Erodes Domestic Industry
the idea that the privilege of the reserve currency automatically guts the domestic industrial base was true when the world was globalizing, there was one supply chain, and the law of one price was intact. Those days are over....
IRGC Supporters Misunderstand Their Own Motives
The point is that those claiming the IRGC is fighting for the country and it’s Poe people and not themselves have no idea what they are talking about
Military Secrecy: War Plans Aren't Public
Imagine being confused as to why a military doesn't publicly disclose their war plans to you...
US Elite Motives Vs. Iran’s Ruling Clergy and Masses
For those who think the US involvement in Iran is being driven by a minority elite who benefit from the current conflict while the larger American populace suffers...how exactly would you classify the Theocracy and IRGC in Iran...as it compares...
Iran's 40-Year Prep Reveals U.S. Strategic Plan
For those who think the U.S. does not have a plan with regards to Iran, pls answer this one question: If the U.S. has no plan, then why did Iran spend the last 40 years preparing to counter the U.S.'s plan...?
Floating Storage Delays Iranian Oil Sales, Relief Unlikely.
Despite some accounts on this app implying that all oil that Iran has shipped is already sold…that is not the case. Some oil is shipped and is floating storage…to then be sold later. This does not mean the USTs...
US Troops to Guard Iran's Energy Assets—Stay Informed
If the possible deployment of US boots on the ground to Iran in an effort to manage/control the energy assets come as a surprise to you…you have not been paying attention
Life Mirrors Camino: Simple Steps, Daily Journey
The beauty of the Camino is its simplicity. All you do is wake up in the morning and start walking. Kind of like Life...
Oil Price Gap Sparks Sarcastic Optimism for China
Oil is $100 in the U.S. and $150 in Asia. I’m looking forward to the all the reports by the usual suspects this weekend explaining how this is a positive development for China.
Now's the Perfect Time to Read This Book
If you have not yet read this book now would be a good time to do so https://t.co/MFmozbXFQz
Prefer Energy Supplies That Bypass Religious Conflict Zones
1. Buy your needed energy inputs from a region that needs to traverse a religious war zone 2. Buy your needed energy inputs from a region that does not need to traverse a religious war zone
Inflation‑adjusted Loans only Default if Contract Mandates Parity
A default “via inflation” is not a default. For it to be a default the underlying contract would have to stipulate that the money received in the future has the same purchasing power and the money lent today. ...
Fiat Currency Levels Dominate Markets; Gold Is Niche
It actually doesn’t make it a moot point. Bc single most important variable in global markets is relative level of fiat currencies. If you only care about gold, consider yourself fortunate to be in the .0001% of people on the...
Can Gold Reach $5,000 While DXY Stays Above 100?
Anyone know how we could possibly have gold over $5,000 with the DXY over $100? https://t.co/S8n1xWP4PR
Strait of Hormuz Ship Insurance: Power Shift Looms
Who will control/dominate the insurance business of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz once energy is consistently flowing again?
US Risks Strait Closure, Pays Empty-Print Cost
- the US will not risk shutting the strait - US actions lead to strait being shut - the US cannot reopen the strait - the US Navy escorts ship through the strait - yes the US Navy escorted a ship through the strait...
2022: Long Energy, Bet on Russia Amid U.S. Missteps
I’m old enough to remember when the most obvious trade in the world was going long Energy and Russia in Q1 of 2022 bc they held all the cards and the U.S. had a idiot in the White House
Dollar Index May Hit Record as Other Currencies Collapse
This paints a potential scenario for how the dollar index could return to its all time high. Not bc it is great. But bc all other fiat will fail first.
Global USD Demand Fuels Stablecoin Profits, Threatens Banks
One of reasons banks are freaking out about stablecoins, even though stablecoins don't pay yield, is bc there is more demand for USD outside the US than there is inside the US. And that means billions (no...trillions) of profits going...
Early Months May Launch the Monsoon Framework
It’s early. VERY early. But the months ahead could set the stage for the early beginnings of the Monsoon thesis/framework. Time to start thinking about it. IYKYK @RaoulGMI
Factor National Interests, Avoid Becoming Market Victim
You can begin factoring national interests and power factors into your preferred free market analysis or you can be a victim of it. https://t.co/bDXsO4Jd8A
USD Stays Strong; “Global Reserve Asset” Rebrands Failure
For what its worth, the reason the term “Global Reserve Asset” has gained traction over last 5 yrs is bc those who previously said USD would lose “Global Reserve Currency” status had to pivot after getting everything they ever dreamed...
Stablecoin Wars: Factions Battle for USD Dominance
Four months ago we released "Empire by Code" which laid out a thesis for the rise of USD Stablecoins. We have now released “Stablecoin Wars" which deals with the various factions vying for control of this new system. Both can be found...
Debt-Based Money Ensures Perpetual Debt, Devalues Assets
Bc of the interest component & exponential function of a debt based monetary system, there is never enough money to pay off the debt. And bc debts are always paid (either by lender or borrower), if they didn’t debase the...
Global Fiat Fears Boost Gold and USD Stablecoins
Wrong. Vast majority of gold buyers have been non Americans that are more worried that their own fiat currencies will lose value than they are about the USD losing value. And while foreign CBs purchased around $100B of gold...
Assume BRICS' USD‑bypass Plans Are Real; Doubt USD Stability
Remember, every utterance from BRICS & Global South regarding potential new system to bypass USD is to be treated as if already operational & making material difference. And every piece of evidence that USD system isnt going anywhere is to be...
ECB Staff Push for Tighter Oversight and Regulation
ECB staff comes up with the revolutionary idea of adding even more oversight and regulation