Semis Surge, Stocks Pricey, yet Indices Stay Calm
Semis are up 30%+ in a month, single stock IVs are quite rich, with the Iran conflict lingering in the background…yet major indices are seeing the lowest vol in months. Read our weekly analysis at: https://t.co/jhbxoVyE7x
Single-Stock Delta Triggers $2B
Single stock delta is the downside driver this AM. -$2bn is size... 30-day low is -$4bn for day https://t.co/HMMDWVmMUC
1‑Day Straddle at 105 Bps Signals FOMC
My snark aside, this person has a clear point. The 1DTE straddle is 105bps, implying that its Mags that matter, with some FOMC flavor. https://t.co/x8AGRKoHAf
AMD Needs
You need a ~20% move in $AMD for the calls to pay off The stock is up 50% this month Oil is >100 but you are betting that the rate of change of semis continues as unhinged upside GL https://t.co/smohuP8jKm
Reason
ok. why is this guy wrong? honest question. the split between reasonable people being doomers and SPX ATH is odd.
Options Surge Signals Intel’s 19% Earnings Jump
Heavy options activity + elevated call premiums preceded Intel's +19% post-earnings surge, as discussed earlier today with CNBC's Oliver Renick: https://t.co/HlZyHlUzwM
Massive 0‑DTE Put Profit Reveals Insider Timing
649P was the 6th largest volume 0DTE strike from 11:45 to 12:02 Question: who misinformed the call buyers? or its only the put buyer that knew something? https://t.co/WyGoxG0Le1
SpotGamma’s Early Alerts Navigated Q1 2026 Market Turbulence
Q1 2026 was turbulent. How did SpotGamma support subscribers through the craziness? ✓ Jan: Flagged a "window of weakness" post-OPEX — S&P dropped 2% the next session ✓ Feb: Called SPX 6,900 as key risk pivot — vol spiked for 3 days...
SMH Rides 24% Surge, Yet Stretched on Bullish Hope
The market bullish thesis is predicated on this outperformance continuing $SMH Its up 24% since 3/31 Fresh off of 2nd longest winning streak in history (13 days) So stretched. https://t.co/46KPSsraIH
Buyside Gamma Positive Below $650, Negative Above; Deep‑ITM Calls Persist
$CAR Our data shows positive gamma for buyside <~$650 and negative gamma above that due (retail?) short calls. Pentwaters Deep-ITM calls ($85 risk reversal): +$355M ~600K share-eq at Δ≈1 seems to still be on From my understanding there can't be ATM offering...
AI Fuels Rally; VRP Vanished, Options Now Pricey
@WarrenPies on debasement, AI = stock tailwind + VRP gone, single stock options rich after the recent record rally https://t.co/HQ57lAcHbm
SPX Surges 12% as VIX Plunges 40%
SPX is up 12% in under 3 weeks, and VIX is down 40% since March. What actually drove this rally? Read the full breakdown, and discover how to position for the week ahead: https://t.co/pjlGkluggt
Markets Surge, Volatility Crush, Record Low Put‑call Ratio
SPX +12% in 2 weeks NDX +13 days in a row of pos returns - longest since '13 Vol crush: VIX,VVIX,SDEX, post Iran lows at OPEX Record PC ratio lows driven by big mecacap call volume while no one wanted puts... https://t.co/4BRBOUbPjR
Firm Takes Massive 30k Call/Put Risk Reversal Exposure
2nd day in a row that a Firm (i.e. bank) has had on a massive 7k strike combo/risk reversal Short ~30k calls, and long ~30k puts. So MM has the other side. That is a lot of deltas... to put 30k into context...
Record $15bn Day, $4bn Delta in 15 Minutes
$4bn of +delta in 15 mins is, again, insane. This after a record of *$15bn for the whole day* https://t.co/LOJZGH9F5U
High Call Volume Signals Imminent Market Correction
Im looking for a correction now based on the extreme call volumes & stock up + vol up into an OPEX. GL.
Tesla Call Volume Hits 5th‑Highest Ever at 3.95M
yesterday was the 5th highest TSLA call volume ever. 3.95mm contracts #1 was 4.86mm on election night 11/8/24
S&P 500 Options Hit Record $15B Positive Delta
S&P500 options registered +$15 billion positive delta today. Highest I've ever seen. That is nuts. https://t.co/gAFHpty8kz
Friday OPEX May Disrupt Options Amid Market Rebound
While the market has rebounded from recent lows, Friday's monthly OPEX could shake up options positioning — delivering a meaningful impact to the broader market. Get the full breakdown with SpotGamma, live at 1pm ET today: https://t.co/nDCjAQLXcO
SPX Holds Positive Gamma; 7025 OI Leads Upside
SPX overall positive gamma still holding. -7,025 is the biggest 0DTE OI right to upside. -Downside eyes on 6,965 Now trial it in BLOOMBERG: APPS SPOTGAMMA Updating every minute of every day - not that stale bank stuff + see SPX gamma map +5...
SPX Straddle Cheap Despite Recent
Tomorrows SPX straddle is $41/58bps SPX last 2 days: +111bps +100bps also VIX EXP tomorrow
TRACE Predicts S&P Resistance, Confirms Flat Close
Two hours before Thursday's close, TRACE showed a massive call position that formed overhead resistance at SPX 6,830. Sure enough, the S&P 500 hit that level and flatlined into the close. TRACE unlocks that same edge for S&P 500 traders every day...
Second‑largest VIX Expiry Since 2020, 1.
Tomorrow AM appears to be the 2nd largest VIX exp since 2020, including ~1.9mm puts which are concentrated in the 20-17 strike range. This, as VIX is 18... 1-month lows https://t.co/zBsYODY5nH
Futures Slip 1% While Straddle Expects 0.81% Move
futures open down 1% and the straddle is currently pricing in a move of 0.81% no one cares about your middle east doom
Volatility Crush Fuels 3% S&P Rally, Hints Ahead
Last week's vol crush sent the S&P 500 surging 3%. Read up on the mechanics behind the rally — and what they could mean moving forward: https://t.co/Lv07xyrLge
Investors Misread VIX: Fear Indicator vs Trade Asset
i think there are a lot of people now conflating VIX as a fear indicator vs VIX/volatility as an asset class and the idea that "don't people get whats going on?" im sure they do its just not today's problem...
6830 Emits Billions of Gamma Rays—Few Knew
There are those that knew that 6830 had billions of gamma and those that did not https://t.co/lMQgrq5vbK
Live in 45 Minutes: TRACE Reloaded Reveals Market Truth
We are going live for TRACE Reloaded in 45 minutes. Don’t miss your chance to see what’s truly behind today’s market: https://t.co/hA4hvasgi0 https://t.co/vHA7nAA2q6
SPX Above 6800 Triggers Heavy Selling, Below Supports Buying
In terms of SPX buying/selling pressure the key thing is that >6,800 the pressure gets heavy (darker red) which builds up into the billions of delta notional selling. Its light buying support below ~$500mm of delta buying below, selling above =...
NVDA Call Implied Volatility Still Low vs Rich Index Options
Index options are relatively rich single stocks seem cheap this is the ~90DTE NVDA ~5 delta call IV since 2024 https://t.co/LKZoIvKcjG
Deal Announcements Thrive on Market Dips, Not Peaks
see you don’t announce deals at the market high or else no money to be made. market tanking is a sign they’re about to sign https://t.co/wrLPTeHTYd
TRACE Flags Ceiling as S&P Rally Stalls at 6,650
Market rips, TRACE flags the ceiling. On March 23, the S&P’s sharp rally in the morning stalled out at heavy resistance near SPX 6,650. TRACE + HIRO showed dealer selling taking hold, and the market faded lower. Join us April 9th...
S&P Flat as Oil Jumps 10%—Unexpected Loss
SPX flat with Oil +10% wasn't not on my bingo card. An L for me.
Travelers Tolerate Long Lounge Waits for Free Perks
LGA TSA is waiting <5 mins delta lounge 45 mins people will put up with a lot of pain for free stuff
TRACE Reloaded Reveals Hidden Pressure Behind S&P 500 Moves
There’s a code behind today’s market, and you’re ready to see it. The TRACE Reloaded event on April 9th uncovers the hidden pressure driving support, resistance, and volatility in the S&P 500, with more precision than ever before: https://t.co/hA4hvasgi0
Equity Volatility Undervalued as Futures Slide 1.5%
The equity vol is still asleep relative to the oil move. The 0DTE SPX straddle is just $55 (85 bps). Futures are down 1.5% overnight. Something ain't right. https://t.co/kmBuM66ebE
SPX Targets 6,650 Upside, 6,400 Downside Tomorrow
Based on closing SPX positions, it looks like 6,650 is best case upside for tomorrow. Downside open to 6,400. GL https://t.co/o3MdAytDAn
Markets Already Factored In Trump’s 9 PM Speech
Trump speaks at 9PM. SPX +3%, VIX near lows, oil <100… What’s already priced in?
SPX Slides, JPM Put Gains as Political Tension Spikes
This is downright freaky. From Feb '25 - Mar 31, the SPX was down 9%, & closed on the JPM 5,565 Put on 3/31 Then came April 2nd "Liberation Day". The SPX subsequently dropped 10% 2026: SPX -6% from Feb, rallying to...
0DTE SPX Straddle Slides to $32, Echoing FOM
to put this into context, i mark the average open px for the 0DTE SPX straddle at $44 2 hours left $32 is like an FOMC day https://t.co/nvzRnpkt0F
6,600 Resistance Threshold; CL Under 100 Signals Go
Update. 6,600 is resistance *if* this Iran thing is real. I think CL <100 is the green light. PS: I'm not saying Andy endorsed this map...although he didn't explicitly not endorse it... https://t.co/u0zeKHrpcJ
TRACE Reveals Massive Negative Gamma, Expect Intraday Volatility
This is TRACE, the most accurate SPX GEX map you can get. It also updates faster than any GEX map 😏. Remember: +50% of SPX flow is 0DTE and so if you are tracking gamma, you need to see that...
Equity Volatility Mirrors Oil Volatility Post‑Iran Crisis
Equity vol is just oil vol as you see by how the relationship changed after the Iran debacle started. CL now +104... I think VIX "outperforms" at some point. Good luck. https://t.co/DX8MdVrYpP
Trump Exploits Market Mechanics for Staged Rally Narrative
trump knows that if he gets the gamma going to the upside jpm collar kicks in and gives him another 1% intraday rally and then people will read that rally as “success is happening in iran”
Conflict Risk and Negative Gamma Threaten Market Stability
Conflict risk combined with deeply negative gamma has destabilized markets. With a massive vol premium still embedded, the risk is that realized volatility catches up to meet implied vols. Read our full breakdown: https://t.co/n0KqLMYeDl
2026 Could Mirror 1970s Oil Shock, Stocks Crash
Per @grok If 2026 plays out like the 1970s oil shock (Nixon Pres): Stocks: S&P crashes another 40%+ (total ~45-50% drawdown) Oil: $150–$200+/bbl as Hormuz pain drags Rates: Fed funds rips to double digits (teens possible)
VIX +60 Spikes Signal Rare Market Crises Ahead
I'm quite nervous, and I spent 2 hours writing why you should be too. Consider: VIX has gone +60 twice in the last ~1.5 years. Once on a positioning debacle (Aug '24) and then again on the self-inflicted wound of April '25...
Premarket VIX Spikes Far Beyond Oil Movement
Using premarket marks, this is Crude (USO) vs VIX. You can see the AM VIX move is high relative to the move in oil (red dot). Black dots are last 5 days. https://t.co/ZgBEOTzNOF
SPX Volatility Appears Unusually Bid This Morning
SPX vols look quite oddly bid this morning? @NoelSmith lemme know if I'm just being dumb (please)
Single Stock Calls Appear Undervalued Compared to Index Options
Single stock calls are looking cheap, with stock IV seemingly cheap relative to Index calls. I think that could be an interesting trade setup here. https://t.co/kZqM2eCdlo