Market Valuations Shifting: Nvidia and Big‑tech Multiples Puzzling
The re-rating of Nvidia makes no sense quite honestly. Separately, moving the FCF multiple of Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet also doesn't make sense to me. That said, the pricing model for public markets are changing rapidly... https://t.co/bOnVWE3STO
China's AI Ecosystem: Nuanced Beyond Open‑source Hype
The China AI Complex is much more nuanced than what it appears on the surface (open source/open weights, cheaper/faster/better value props) when you factor in the CCP and their long term objectives. Also, I mostly stopped hearing about Manus after...
China’s Global Ocean Mapping Boosts Submarine Warfare Capability
“China is conducting a vast undersea mapping and monitoring operation across the Pacific, Indian and Arctic oceans, building detailed knowledge of marine conditions that naval experts say would be crucial for waging submarine warfare against the United States and its...
Reimagining Software Factories with AI: 8090 Leads
I think the concept of building a Software Factory is now a commonplace expectation. Yay. The winner still isn’t clear but whoever does the best job reimagining the software development lifecycle in a world of agents, AI, expert knowledge, tribal...
VCs Chase Hype, Not Diligence, Fueling AI Boom‑bust
I don’t know if there is anything shady going on here or not, but I will say, more generally, that VCs prefer social proof than actual diligence: “XYZ did the A, we must get into the B” or “ARR is...
EY Adopts 8090’s AI‑Native Software Factory for Enterprise Transformation
Today I’m very excited to announce a global partnership between 8090 and EY. EY will adopt 8090’s Software Factory and use it to help their customers break free from slow, costly and failure-prone legacy enterprise software using our AI-native software...
AI as Cover for Massive Workforce Cuts
What if AI doesn’t need to show an immediate ROI but instead is the plausible deniability companies use to RIF 50% of the workforce they already knew did nothing??
Newsom's Refinery Closures Drive Sky‑high Gas Prices
Newsom drove one refinery to shut down last year and one that will shut down in another month. Our gas prices were already sky high because of these actual and forecasted closures - it forced us to import gas and...
Software Factory Replaces Jira in One Month
Our cracked team just used Software Factory to rebuild and replace Jira in a little more than a month. We first spent 3.5 weeks planning. This is Software Factory’s superpower. It allowed our lead PM, Designer and Architect to thoughtfully...
AI Boosts Individuals, but Firms Still Need Redesign
“In 2026, AI is driving a 10x increase in the productivity of the individuals who know how to leverage it. But that’s not enough. We’ve swapped the motor; we have not yet redesigned the factory. Because of a simple fact: productive...
Avoid Overfitting Evaluations: Blend LLMs and Human Judgment
I think there is something important going on here that is worth figuring out: 1) most models overfit to evals. that said, we need some evals to tell a model if they are good bullshit detectors before we go off and...
California's Billionaire Tax Would Cost Middle Class $2,500
A new @HooverInstitution study confirms what I’ve been saying for months. The CA Billionaire Tax has a negative NPV of -$24.7B. Meaning if this gets on the ballot and is approved in November, California doesn’t just collect less than promised,...
Agent-Powered
As coding agents start compiling English into code, the definition of WHAT to build becomes the highest leverage work. That means teams need to collaborate deeply on requirements. Some people write specs as markdown in Git repositories. But that isn’t a collaborative...
Ledger+ Cuts Family Office Costs From $2M to $200K
Most usage of Software Factory are by companies solving their own problems. They aren’t looking to create public demos. That said, if you’re a fund or family office and need a lightweight but robust way to manage your schedule of...
Software Factory: Human‑guarded, Synchronized Workflow Replaces Agile
This is why we built Software Factory. Human guardrails that are built thoughtfully and maintained accurately prevent drift and are crucial for production software to work over long time horizons. Otherwise it’s just vibe theater. Software Factory has replaced Agile,...
Escaped Social Capital Politics, Now Investing My Own Capital
What happened at Social Capital was several things: 1) Personally, I was going through a divorce. It was a very hard time. 2) My ostensible “cofounders” spent more time jostling for board seats and credit for deals with outsiders vs doing...
AI Power, Compute, Algorithms Multiply to Shift Leverage
I have a simplified conjecture about AI progress. Your mileage may vary but here it is. f(i) = p × c × a where i=intelligence, p=power, c=compute, a=algorithms, multiplied together. This means neglecting any variable creates a ceiling and any breakthrough compounds...
ISL Replaces ETL: Intelligence Beats Raw Data Ingestion
Ingest Structure Learn (ISL) is the new ETL. It used to be the case that a company would try to license this kind of data as an “edge”. I’ve seen many companies in SV try to make this claim. That...
Learn With Me: $2M Insight, Fractional Cost
In 2020, I hired McKinsey to teach me about the global energy transition. I learned a lot, but it cost me more than $2M. After that experience, I decided to build my own internal research project at Social Capital called Learn...
Billionaire Tax Drives $500B Out, Burdens Californians
People I know, with a collective net worth of $500B, scrambled and left California for good yesterday. They took no risk because of the proposed asset seizure tax - introduced as a “Billionaire Tax”. Without these people, the California budget deficit...
Bernie Right About
A couple of important thoughts and clarifications: Where is Bernie right? He is right that a handful of the Tech Billionaire class are completely and totally loathsome. Monopolists who’ve flouted privacy, dampened free speech, enabled debanking and sewed societal chaos with...
From TPU Founder to Nvidia: A Decade of Gratitude
Taken Sep 1, 2016 when @JonathanRoss321 convinced me we could take on the giants, build new silicon and that AI was coming. In typical SV fashion, we didn’t even have a company yet - just a term sheet from me...
Show the Incentive, See the Outcome.
“Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome…” https://t.co/QJAbUuo9bc
White House Pushes Unified National AI Regulation, Blocks States
What I read this week... 1) On 12/11, The White House issued a new Executive Order declaring that the United States must adopt a single national AI regulatory standard rather than a mosaic of state-level rules. The EO does not define...
Kalshi Secures $1 B Funding, Valuation Hits $11 B
What I read this week... 1) Kalshi Raises $1B at $11B Valuation Kalshi has closed a stunning $1 billion Series E funding round at an $11 billion valuation, more than doubling its worth in under two months. The round, led by crypto-focused...
Gemini AI Solves Complex Business Problem Effortlessly
i just used geminiii on what i felt was a complicated business problem and it blew me away with its answer
Forge Slowly, Thrive as AI Automates Speed
“Move Fast and Break Things” vs “Move Slow and Forge Things” “Move fast and break things” was a something we invented at Facebook to get a bunch of entitled Ivy League kids to grind for us. It worked. Then, all of...
AI‑Powered Azure Fuels Predictable Microsoft Growth
Azure drives a meaningful share of Microsoft’s revenue growth. The company reports the specific impact of AI on Azure’s expansion each quarter, and the contribution has grown steadily over the past year. This gives a concrete view into how AI...
Microsoft’s Platform Play: Azure Powers the AI Era
Deep Dive: A Primer on Mag7 (Part 7 - Microsoft) Microsoft has spent fifty years building platforms that sit underneath the modern economy. BASIC made early computers usable. MS DOS and Windows standardized personal computing. Office became the core productivity layer for...
US Needs Indian‑Advantaged Oxide Refining to Counter China
Think of rare earths as a three step process. Step 1: mining and extraction Step 2: refine into oxides Step 3: manufacture value added products (like magnets) Steps 1 and 3 are being done in the US now. Step 2 is our Achilles...
Domestic Battery Supply Chain Essential for National Security
Why are batteries a national security issue? It is THE energy source for critical applications today and, even more importantly, tomorrow: Cars Data Center Batteries (ESS) Military and defense drones Robots If we are to be a resilient nation that is in control of our...
OpenAI Turns For‑Profit, Microsoft Takes 27% Stake
What I Read This Week... 1) OpenAI’s Corporate Evolution After months of speculation, the company has formalized its transition into OpenAI Group PBC, a for-profit public benefit corporation currently valued at $500 billion, controlled by the original nonprofit foundation. The shift ends its...
Incumbents Erode OpenAI Share; Coding Tools Decline
Here are two very important charts about the current AI boom. Chart 1: Distribution Matters Open AI is still the clear leader but, interestingly, they are loosing percentage share as the market grows. This is normal for a category leader but...
