Markets Rebound Monday While Hormuz Closes Weekends
Sunday night gap open lower, green on Monday…how many weeks now? Not my joke but what’s the deal with the Strait of Hormuz being open Monday-Friday and definitely still closed on weekends
S&P Rally Sparks Debate Over Renewed Irrational Exuberance
From near panic a few weeks ago to pigs flying today, it was good to talk with @Chartfest1 again about the S&P 500's rally and whether or not there's still room for stocks to run. Are we already back to...
Option Volume Jumps 17% as Calls Outpace Puts
From @Cboe: Wednesday's option volume of 79.1M contracts was 17% above recent average levels, with calls leading puts 13 to 8. Among the 500 most liquid single stocks, 30-day IV was higher for 298 and lower for 157.
S&P 500 Posts 99.7th Percentile Surge in Two Weeks
Incredible. At least a 99.7th percentile move (per @WarrenPies earlier today) in the S&P 500 over the past 2 weeks.
Key Political & Fed Events Set to Move Markets
Some catalysts over the next hour or so... 1pm ET - WH Press conference re: difference between Iran 10 and American 15 point plans 1:15pm - Netanyahu press conference re ceasefire 2pm - March FOMC minutes
Crude Oil Gaps Higher, Outpaces Falling Futures
/CLK6 gaps open to 112.96, trades up to 114.83 (Friday close of 111.89)...now +1.7%ish /ESM6 -0.6% /NQM6 -0.7% /ZNM6 -0.03% DXY +0.02%
US‑Iran Talks Show Positive Momentum After Holiday Pause
catching up on the news after the holiday week, seems like the US-Iran negotiations are going well
Oil Prompt Spread Hits Record Backwardation
Look at that backwardation...prompt spread (difference between the front-month oil futures contract and the subsequent contract) blowing out to records https://t.co/KBfkkpr9IC
Iranian Runway Built in a Day, NYC Subway Stalls
We can build a runway in Iran in a day but we still can’t finish the Second Avenue subway after 106 years and counting https://t.co/Pc0v0YFu9r
Oil Rises While Rate‑Hike
Oil up across the curve the past week and rate hike odds contracting in the back half of that oil rise feels ominous
Iran War's End May Trigger Prolonged Global Shock
The Iran War could end today and the shock would still unfold. The only questions are how big and for how long the shock will last.
Build New Factories to Prevent Future Munitions Shortages
Do this. Much more of this. In fact, build more factories, don’t just convert existing ones. The Western world should never find itself in a munitions shortage again in our lifetimes. A gigantic mistake of the past 25+ years of...
Red Lines Emerging Around Gulf Civilian Infrastructure
Meaningful development here as red lines are trying to be drawn around civilian infrastructure in the Gulf.
Gas Prices Likely Remain High Through 2027
Gas prices staying up into 2027? It’s becoming a distinct possibility. Thanks to retired Marine Lt Col @HalKempfer for taking the time to talk supply chain issues, energy security, and the new Great Powers competition. Link below.
USDJPY Near 160; Intervention Unlikely Amid Rising Yields
$USDJPY near 160, going to be tough for an intervention to be effective with the winds pushing yields up thanks to oil (as goes the case for any major energy importer at the moment)