High Inflation, Oil, Strong GDP: Bonds Remain Unattractive
Inflation running above expectations, oil holding above $90, Atlanta Fed GDPNow pointing to +3.7% GDP for 2Q'26 (thanks data center buildout)...difficult to make a bull case for bonds (or rate cuts) for the foreseeable future.
US, Iran Avoid War While Proxies Bait Conflict
A few notes given recent news: - US doesn’t want to go back to war - Iran govt doesn’t want to go back to war - IRGC action in SoH are to bait US back into war - Israel actions in Lebanon are...
Option Volume Jumps
From @Cboe: Friday's option volume of 78.2M contracts was 14% above recent average levels, with calls leading puts 3 to 2. Among the 500 most liquid single stocks, 30D IV was higher for 98 and lower for 354. @tastyliveshow
Bitcoin Appears to Break April 2025 Low, EMA Trend Reversal
Bitcoin $BTC looking like it's turning a corner off the April 2025 low & 1-month+50-day EMAs https://t.co/wjnQFDfPZv
Fed Insiders Signal No Immediate
I don’t read this isn’t a dissent against Powell per se. Hammack, Kashkari, Logan are giving Warsh a heads up that the FOMC isn’t going to fall in line with any sort of immediate push towards easing
Higher Rates, Energy Costs Spell Trouble for Import‑dependent Currencies
Rising rates and high energy costs are going to be bad for any currency whose country is a net importer of energy Going long JPY (or EM FX for that matter) right now is effectively calling the top on global bond...
Markets Rebound Monday While Hormuz Closes Weekends
Sunday night gap open lower, green on Monday…how many weeks now? Not my joke but what’s the deal with the Strait of Hormuz being open Monday-Friday and definitely still closed on weekends
S&P Rally Sparks Debate Over Renewed Irrational Exuberance
From near panic a few weeks ago to pigs flying today, it was good to talk with @Chartfest1 again about the S&P 500's rally and whether or not there's still room for stocks to run. Are we already back to...
Option Volume Jumps 17% as Calls Outpace Puts
From @Cboe: Wednesday's option volume of 79.1M contracts was 17% above recent average levels, with calls leading puts 13 to 8. Among the 500 most liquid single stocks, 30-day IV was higher for 298 and lower for 157.
S&P 500 Posts 99.7th Percentile Surge in Two Weeks
Incredible. At least a 99.7th percentile move (per @WarrenPies earlier today) in the S&P 500 over the past 2 weeks.
Key Political & Fed Events Set to Move Markets
Some catalysts over the next hour or so... 1pm ET - WH Press conference re: difference between Iran 10 and American 15 point plans 1:15pm - Netanyahu press conference re ceasefire 2pm - March FOMC minutes
Crude Oil Gaps Higher, Outpaces Falling Futures
/CLK6 gaps open to 112.96, trades up to 114.83 (Friday close of 111.89)...now +1.7%ish /ESM6 -0.6% /NQM6 -0.7% /ZNM6 -0.03% DXY +0.02%
US‑Iran Talks Show Positive Momentum After Holiday Pause
catching up on the news after the holiday week, seems like the US-Iran negotiations are going well
Oil Prompt Spread Hits Record Backwardation
Look at that backwardation...prompt spread (difference between the front-month oil futures contract and the subsequent contract) blowing out to records https://t.co/KBfkkpr9IC
Iranian Runway Built in a Day, NYC Subway Stalls
We can build a runway in Iran in a day but we still can’t finish the Second Avenue subway after 106 years and counting https://t.co/Pc0v0YFu9r