2025 GDP Volatile, PDFP Shows Steady Growth
Did 2025 feel like a wild ride? GDP feels your pain. The quarterly swings were big and short-lived. PDFP, which focuses on consumption and private fixed investment, showed more even, solid gains. https://t.co/LlVwQ7yna5
FOMC Minutes Reveal Split Views: Cut, Hold, or Hike
Key paragraph of the FOMC minutes from January. (I am honestly a bit confused by the 'minutes math.') The main takeaway is that there is considerable disagreement. Cut, hold, and (even possibly) hike all got a nod. https://t.co/eV9ldjldl1 https://t.co/K53g1yqKJ8
Warsh May Threaten Fed Stability Despite Doubtful Capability
Good piece. Warsh would be a fundamental break from the Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell Feds if he carried out his views. Do I think he’s capable of pulling that off? Not really. Do I think he might try to and...
Services Inflation Sticks While Housing Disinflation Persists
Closing out the week with @GregDaco and @ElizRosner talking about inflation: "On the latest episode of The Inflation Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton are joined by special guest Claudia Sahm to break down the...
No Evidence BLS Data Manipulation; Accusations Hinder Discourse
There is ZERO evidence that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is manipulating the data, not the CPI, not payrolls earlier this week. I am not being naive and people are watching carefully for signs of tampering. Such accusations now are harmful...
CPI Insights on Friday the 13th: Inflation Talk
I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.)
January Job Loss Smaller, Yields 130k Seasonal Gain
Great question. Drop in hiring happens every January. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (left), we lost 2.6 million jobs in January 2026, but that was a smaller loss than a typical January ... so we got a good print seasonally adjusted...
January CPI Likely Spikes Amid Data Gaps
Tomorrow is CPI for January. It's a month that has burned us repeatedly -- core CPI inflation (month-over-month) tends to pick up in January. Consensus forecast has a pickup *but* we do not have a clear sense of the...
White House Inflates Payrolls; Revisions Could
WH keeps 'pumping up' payrolls for tomorrow. Here's why. Revisions could wipe out all job growth last year. Zero. zip. nada. https://t.co/RILDizthdl
Pick Fed Chair by Sound Economic Reasoning, Not Politics
"Thus, the way to choose a good Federal Reserve chair is to read what candidates have said about how the economy operates and ask them about their economic beliefs. If what a candidate says is unrealistic or poorly reasoned, move...
Fed's 175‑bp Cuts Signal Looming Dovish Pivot
175 basis points in cuts since September 2024 in response to labor market weakness. That's not ignoring.