Trucking Earnings Surge, Record Momentum Into May
We've now bookended trucking earnings season: JBHT to RXO and universally the reports showed increasing market momentum with stronger conditions into May. Summary: One of the strongest set of earnings calls in years.
Tender Rejections to Stay Firm as Demand Returns
RXO: Tender rejections will continue to firm through the rest of the year as capacity comes out the market and demand returns https://t.co/XOl8PQM9fX
RXO at $10.50 Before Freight Recession Ends
RXO was a $10.50 stock when we first started talking about the end of the freight recession in November https://t.co/IPSD9ophPQ
Data‑Driven Shift: Industrial Economy Rebounds After November
Contrary to belief, I don't have a permanent perspective on freight markets or the economy. I follow the data. The industrial economy was a dog last year, but everything turned around in November, and we have been wide open...
RXO Gains Spot Market Share, Poised for Earnings Breakout
RXO earnings are out. Lots of momentum, setting up for a much stronger year, increasing outlook. Driven by increased spot activity, which is very different than what DAT is reporting on spot load posting volumes. It suggests that RXO is...
Today's Oil Prices Boost U.S. Economy, Not Burden
"Oil prices are at similar levels to 2007." Truth: We have a long way to go to hit $148/barrel peak oil from 07/08 and on an inflation adjusted basis it was well over $200/barrel. We are far away from that...
Tech's Fine, Companies Risk Bans over Job Fears
I am not bearish on autonomous trucking technology, but I am bearish on autonomous trucking companies because of the pressure on politicians to ban the technology as it starts to threaten jobs.
Rail Freight Volume Soars, Grains Jump 17.6% YoY
And just like that, the railroads surge back with one of the best volume reports all year. Grains +17.6% YoY and chemicals +3.5%. Ben has been bearish all year on freight markets, but doesn't understand how they work and how strong the...
Industrial Rebound Drives Freight Demand, Not Capacity Limits
The general belief in trucking is that freight market conditions are tight because of the removal of capacity, not because of a strong economy. This is wrong. Industrials are recovering sharply. We see this in our tender volume data and...
Gas Price Hike Won’t Deter Food Delivery Spending
Anyone that believes consumers would get skidish after $5/gas prices should look at DoorDash and Uber Eats reports. These businesses exist because of consumer disposable income. If the consumer was going to be crushed by higher gas prices, we would...
Rail Freight Surges 4% YoY, Industrial Activity Booms
Rail freight is roaring and industrial activity continues to surge with rail shipments up 4% YoY
Transportation Capacity Tightening Rapidly, Market Set to Worsen
Transportation capacity has never tightened this fast outside of the kick off of peak season during COVID. This is a very tight market that is expected to see further tightening as the year progresses.
Contract Rates up $0.08/mile, Poised for 10% Gain
Contract rates net of fuel $+.08/mile since April 1st. This is a really strong move for contract rates. We believe that contract rates could move another 10% by the end of the year and finish around $2.80/mile. https://t.co/1elgECt0Lg
UP Refuses to Divest Lines in Historic Merger
The biggest merger in transportation history takes a new path with UP saying it won’t divest lines if required by the STB https://t.co/b8lMunECRh
Uber From LGA Takes Longer than Chattanooga Flight
Crazy that it takes more time to Uber from LaGuardia to the city than it does to fly from Chattanooga to LGA.
Founder Mode Fuels Hyperbolic Momentum and Record Enhancements
The most rewarding part of being back in founder mode is when outsiders notice how momentum has gone hyperbolic. FreightWaves and SONAR are both shipping more enhancements than anytime in our history and every single metric reflects how strong of...
Heartland Revives: AI, Energy, Tax Boost Domestic Freight
The biggest story of the year is the way the economy is being reshaped right in front of our eyes. The heartland, being obliterated by globalization, is making an economic comeback thanks to the AI build out, abundant energy, and tax...
Flatbed Truckload Rates Hit $4.10 per Mile Record
Flatbed truckload rate hit new all time high of $4.10/mile, as industrial activity cranks. https://t.co/ecib1OmolR
March Factory Orders Surge 1.5%, Confirming Recovery
March factory orders came in really strong. Forecasts were expected to be +.4% but came in at +1.5%, the highest levels since 2022, another confirmation of the industrial recovery underway. https://t.co/qci0SP0fCx
Deal’s Math Doesn’t Add up, Puzzling the Numbers
I was wondering how the math worked as well, the deal makes no sense. https://t.co/lC21Qbz9Je
Redirect Shippers to the Next Carrier, Not Caps
If shippers tell you to cap your surcharge, tell them where they can go to find the next carrier in line https://t.co/mj3eQuitvp
Congress Must Fund DOT‑FBI Task Force Against Transport Crime
Congress should fund a DOT + FBI task force to investigate and prosecute the organized criminals that have infected our transportation networks.
Flatbed Volumes Hit Record, Driving AI Trucking Boom
Flatbed truckload volumes are at an all time high. Flatbeds are the best way to play the AI boom in trucking. https://t.co/raep5XWfjW
Data Center Boom Pushes Flatbed Rates to Record High
Flatbed trucking spot rates hit a new all-time high at $4.07/mile. Data center construction is 7% of flatbed volumes and is driving a massive amount of material movement. Data center buildout is the largest infrastructure project in history and the...
Industrial Freight Surge Fuels Economic Reshaping and Upside
Its abnormal because our economy is being reshaped right in front of our eyes. We are seeing massive surges of freight demand out of the industrials for AI datacenter construction, energy/power production, and defense. Plus, our industrials are cheaper relative to other...
SCOTUS Montgomery Decision Could Upend Broker Liability
The SCOTUS Montgomery case is the most important topic of the summer in freight. If broker liability gets overturned, it will be massive for the mega truckload carriers and deadly for freight brokers and small truckers.
Reregulation Would Raise Travel Costs and Cut Flight Choices
Reregulation of transportation would result in much higher costs for consumers, with far fewer flight options.
Eliminating Brokers Threatens Small Carriers, Empowers Megas
Without brokers, small carriers will cease to exist and the mega carriers will get bigger and bigger. I think that’s the opposite of what small carriers want. Be careful what you ask for.
Contract Rates up 10%, Double‑digit Hikes Expected
Contract rates have already moved up 10% in the past year and large asset carriers have stated they expect double digit increases by the end of the year.
FMCSA Crackdown Prompts More Drivers to Skip Road Check Week
Road check week is coming up and I think more drivers will take off this year than normal due to the strong FMCSA crackdown
High‑frequency Truckload Spot Rates Now $25/Month
If you are looking for high frequency truckload spot rates for desktop - it’s now available for just $25/mo
Low‑cost Airline Drama: Spirit Airlines, the Anti‑PanAm
Someone should launch a TV series about Spirit Airlines. It would be opposite of PanAm.
SONAR: Beyond Rates, Real-Time Freight Market Intelligence
SONAR is often profiled as a rate product that competes with DAT. But it is far more than that - It is the only high-frequency freight market intelligence platform - which goes much further than freight rates. A few weeks ago,...
LTL Carriers Finally Gain Pricing Power Nationwide
Brand SONAR new dataset: National average rate for LTL. LTL carriers finally gaining pricing power. https://t.co/2VjpQP0tdv
SCOTUS Ruling Shows Perception Beats Actual Conduct
This is what the SCOTUS decision matters so much. It’s not what you do that matters in courts, it’s what you can convince a judge or jury you could have done.
Postal Service Bans Non‑Domestic CDLs, Expect Chaos
Non dom CDLs are banned from the postal service tomorrow. This is going to go poorly
Truckload Contract Rates Jump 10% YoY, Poised to Rise Further
Truckload contract rates (net of fuel) are already up 10% YoY with a lot more runway ahead. https://t.co/LgbZupjD98
US Industrials Lead Unprecedented Freight Market Turnaround
It has been a remarkable turn around in industrials. The current freight market is unlike any that I have ever seen, with US industrials leading the pack, not consumers.
One‑Week Hackathon Aims to Boost Truckers' Lives
Love this - truckers virtual hackathon. Calling it the DASH: "Driver App Shortage Hackathon" One week to develop something that makes life better for truck drivers. Gonna get some VCs as judges to write the first investment check. Who's...
Nuclear $81M Verdict Highlights Broker Liability Risks
$81m awarded in trucking nuclear verdict. “In the first trial, the jury determined the driver was not negligent, which in turn led to no finding against Allied/Beacon. For the company to be found liable, the driver first needed to be...
GLP‑1
Yesterday, I spoke with the CEO of a mega fleet, who said most of his truckload business was doing well, except for one segment: food & beverage. He called the lack of volume from this segment "unusual." I told him...
ATA Ignored Small Fleet Surge, Fueling Trucking Chaos
Last summer, I wrote this article about the ATA losing influence as the number of small fleets exploded. I now realize how ignorant of the growth (and underlying causes) the ATA truly was about the industry. They were either willfully...
China's Export‑driven Model Collapses Under Security Costs
China built its entire economic model based on the principle that exports were universal. That model is crumbling as countries realized they hollowed out their manufacturing base and eroded their own national security in the process. China was the biggest...
Big Carriers Ignored Non‑Dom CDL Drivers, Policy Exposes Flaws
It's becoming more apparent to me that the mid-sized and large carriers (500+ trucks) were clueless about non-domiciled CDLs and weren't hiring from this group. Most had never heard of the term "non-dom" until Sean Duffy made it a policy...
SONAR Launches Real-Time Hormuz Monitoring Feature
SONAR has now added Hormuz Monitor for users. You can now see what is happening in real time across Hormuz directly in SONAR. https://t.co/FAuzeeAH3A
FreightWaves Launches Premier Daily Logistics News Show
FreightWaves Today, our daily show (noon -2pm ET) is launching June 1st and will be the premiere business-news show for the logistics, supply chain, and industrial sector. We are hiring a former Fox Business producer to ensure we have the...
Truckers Question NYT's New Freight Safety Coverage
Truckers are suspicious that the NYT would cover a story about the safety crisis in trucking. The NYT asked me to come on as an Opinion writer to cover freight and supply chain topics - something that typically gets little...
CH’s Stellar Reputation Starkly Contrasts with TQL’s Shortcomings
Agreed. CH for as big as it is has a stellar reputation. TQL, on the other hand
Supreme Court Case Threatens Half of Freight Brokers
The Montgomery vs. CH Robinson is an extinction level event for so many brokers and could wipe out 30-50% of all freight brokers over the next decade. We are on SCOTUS watch, as the decision is imminent.
US Natgas Fuels Industrial Surge Amid Hormuz Closure
The data supports this - freight activity has firmed since early March. Industrials are ripping and America has a massive competitive advantage: abundant natgas. Natgas is the industrial fuel. American industrial competitiveness increases the longer Hormuz is closed.