Prioritizing Green, Cheap Energy Solves the Trilemma
This solves the energy trilemma by de-prioritizing secure and prioritizing achieving green and cheap energy transition. My version of the trilemma: https://t.co/YtnAs4vI0F
Firms Still Depend on Chinese Suppliers Despite Relocation
Ha, the real insight buried in a big provocative headline take The geography of assembly has changed but have the firms themselves changed or actually deepened reliance on Chinese suppliers? I've been asking this question for like 3 years: do we...
China and US Face Back-to-Back Election Sensitivities
"Looking at broader macro-political dynamics, China has effectively started its “campaign season” as Xi eyes a fourth term beginning in 2027, followed by another US presidential election cycle in 2028. These overlapping timelines mean that both countries will, in relatively...
China Aims to Peak Coal Amid Political Hurdles
Amid all that's going on in energy markets, is China still trying to peak coal or is coal going to boom again? I believe it's the former and for real this time. But progress toward the peak isn't linear because...
China’s Energy Security Hinges on Surplus Coal, Not Oil
China's energy security doesn't run through Hormuz but through tons of slack coal capacity at home. Yet Beijing's real goal for energy security is to peak coal and electrify everything. Put another way, China's energy security will be manufactured, literally. My...
Countries Prioritize Clean Transition over Chinese EV Origins
Every time there's chart on here showing some mid sized or small country with a hockey stick curve of EV or e-bus adoption -- and there will be more -- it is almost always because they care more about the...
Chinese AI Cuts China Emissions, Boosts US, Japan
China's CAS released an LLM for carbon emissions accounting. The model apparently reduces China's contributions to emissions but increases US and Japan's. Is it open source, has anyone looked at it to see how it differs? Wrapping this in increasing...
US‑China Year Delayed, Focus Shifts to May
Did a lengthy interview with @AmChamSh Insight magazine on what was supposed to be the "Year of US-China". But, ya know, events interjected in this topsy turvy world. Still, I'm sure we will be turning our attention to this come...
China's Excess Capacity Fuels Cheap Electrification in the Global South
An interesting question to ponder is whether Chinese overcapacity is essentially indirectly subsidizing the electrification of the "global south". It's similar to countries buying oil on the cheap, typically to stockpile. At the moment, oil is of course not cheap....
China's Solar Aid Fuels Cuba's Renewable Push
"Beijing supplied 1 gigawatt of photovoltaic panels to the communist island last year and has promised more support as Cuba seeks to generate 15 per cent of its power from renewables in 2026, according to its new economic and social...
Electrification Hinges on Choosing Quality EV over Cheap Chinese
A lot of BYDs in Singapore. The speed and cost of electrification, at the moment, depends a lot on a very simple variable: whether you care more that it is a quality and affordable EV or care more that it...
Space Launches Are Now Routine, a Quiet Triumph
Amid everything that's going on, it's worthwhile to sit back a bit and marvel at the fact that launching rockets into space doesn't inspire the same kind of awe that it did 50.years ago. And that's precisely the point, it is...
Commodified LLMs Shift Value From Model to Product
It's not so much that China made LLMs cheap. It's that commodification makes the model layer basically uninteresting. All about the product layer now.
China's 15th Plan Signals End of Expansion Era
Many have given great interpretations of China's 15th five year plan. My read is a little different: "For one, lower growth targets will likely be a norm rather than a surprise. Moreover, it implies China is likely at the beginning of...
China's Deployment Cycle Ends as Involution Stifles Innovation
Elaborating on my view that we are nearing the end of China's deployment super cycle that defined five consecutive five year plans from 2001-2025. One major reason? The persistent pattern of involution comes at the expense of innovation. The latter...
Xi Prioritizes Innovation, Targets TFP Over GDP
My take on the Chinese five year plan and the rise of "high quality" as approximating a "Xi Doctrine" on the economy - for @CarnegieEndow Emissary @CarnegieChina The TL:DR version: - For Xi, innovation-driven economy > consumption driven economy. -...
Collective Climate Action Falters While Energy Transition Thrives
climate collective action is on life support the energy transition is alive and well Important distinction to make
China Realizes Mao’s Dream, Leads Global South
"how China became the leader of the global south" will be a macro theme receiving tons of ink in coming years. Incidentally, this was always Mao's dream