China's 15th Plan Signals End of Expansion Era
Many have given great interpretations of China's 15th five year plan. My read is a little different: "For one, lower growth targets will likely be a norm rather than a surprise. Moreover, it implies China is likely at the beginning of the end of its deployment super cycle—a massive capacity expansion period that spanned five consecutive five-year plans from 2001 to 2025. This was the period that built the bullet trains, the modern cyberpunk cities, and electric vehicles that many have rightly come to marvel as a testament to China’s technological prowess and economic success." @CarnegieChina @CarnegieEndow https://t.co/u9GSyYHdJ8
China's Deployment Cycle Ends as Involution Stifles Innovation
Elaborating on my view that we are nearing the end of China's deployment super cycle that defined five consecutive five year plans from 2001-2025. One major reason? The persistent pattern of involution comes at the expense of innovation. The latter...
Xi Prioritizes Innovation, Targets TFP Over GDP
My take on the Chinese five year plan and the rise of "high quality" as approximating a "Xi Doctrine" on the economy - for @CarnegieEndow Emissary @CarnegieChina The TL:DR version: - For Xi, innovation-driven economy > consumption driven economy. -...
Collective Climate Action Falters While Energy Transition Thrives
climate collective action is on life support the energy transition is alive and well Important distinction to make
China Realizes Mao’s Dream, Leads Global South
"how China became the leader of the global south" will be a macro theme receiving tons of ink in coming years. Incidentally, this was always Mao's dream