Analyzing Crisis Outlook,
The world's greatest macro podcast is back. This week: 1) Is the market right to look through this entire crisis? 2) What are the longer-term implications? 3) What do central banks do next?
Inflation Won’t Reach 2% Target, Be More Volatile
literally said that four years ago. Inflation would come down sharply, but not all the way to 2% - which was now the floor rather than the ceiling. And it would also become more volatile, due to various supply shocks
From Great Moderation to Chaos: Supply Shocks Return
If the Great Moderation was the result of fewer nasty supply shocks, more efficient supply chains, and better policymaking - as economists claim - then what we have now is the complete reversal of those trends. Nasty supply shocks, the...
Post‑crisis Outlook: Fed Likely to Raise Rates
If the crisis blows over in the way most investors expect, i think the next Fed move will be a hike
Inflation Surge, Market Risk Unmoved Without Economic Shock
We know we face months of physical disruption to energy and food markets. Inflation will keep getting worse. The question is whether risk assets will care, if the underlying conflict has been resolved. I suspect not...unless the economy deteriorates in...
Missed BoE Chief Economist's Speech—Another Insightful Cracker
sad I missed this speech from the BoE's chief economist. Looks like another cracker https://t.co/Gu7E2vcUmX
Post‑COVID Inflation Surge: More Prices Exceed 3%
New Fed paper showing that underlying inflation dynamics have shifted since COVID. Across countries, a greater share of prices are now rising >3% per year - partly because wage inflation has been persistently higher. https://t.co/1PELesrnc2
Iran Offers Ceasefire for Strait Access, US Demands Opening
The way out of this mess, according to our geopolitics guy: The TACO was trailed by yesterday's talk about leaving others to free up the strait. Trump's latest burp today hardens this somewhat when, in answer to his own claim that...
Oil Shock: Temporary Pain or Recession Trigger?
Ok, so here is the debate: Bull: higher oil price will raise inflation and reduce the LEVEL of disposable income/profits. But even if oil prices stay high, impact on GROWTH eventually wears off. Its a soft patch. And since we know...
Energy Markets Face Months of Disruption Despite Conflict Resolution
heated debate on our weekly analysts' call today. If the conflict ends but we still face months of physical disruption to energy markets - is anyone still going to care?
US Economy Set to Outperform Global Peers in Any War
"While the US will continue to outperform other advanced economies under almost any war scenario..." Bookmark that
Oil's Calm Surge Ends: Volatility Looms Ahead
why oil price rises have been so orderly so far, and why that is about to change.. https://t.co/TAIdkwIkdQ
Post‑WWII Worker Power Erased by 1979 Neoliberalism
This is one of my favourite charts. It shows how the economy emerged from WW2 with a lot more worker power.. and then post-1979 neoliberalism crushed it. sorry folks, we aint gonna get another wage-price spiral https://t.co/KydXL5zIer
1990 Crisis: Central Banks Opted for Inaction Amid Uncertainty
🧵Let me take you back to August 1990. Three weeks ago, Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil prices have surged, and the FOMC is meeting to decide how to respond. The economy looks wobbly. Payrolls just recorded a small decline. Greenspan talks...
Geopolitics, History, and Euro Rate Hikes Shape Markets
NEW PODCAST EPISODE. 1) How the Iran situation changes the outlook 2) Lessons from the 1990 recession 3) Are the Europeans seriously gonna hike (again..)