Greenspan: Tech Productivity Shifted From Rate Pause to Hike
as I said a while back, that's how the Greenspan comparison should have been framed. For Greenspan, tech productivity was initially a reason not to hike (against the hawkishness of his FOMC colleagues), not a reason to cut aggressively... and eventually it became a reason to hike
UK Investors' Two‑month Nightmare Finally Hits Market
Literally the thing every UK investor has been worrying about for the past two months...
AI Capex Boom Masks True Sustainability Concerns
Bulls clearly winning but here's the issue. When the hyperscalers pump $700bn of capex into the AI ecosystem, revenues across the system go through the roof and compute demand goes ballistic. Most of those revenues come from the recycling of...
Rate Hikes Spark Political Jabs Across Fed Generations
When Greenspan came in, he immediately hiked rates. Volcker phoned him and jokingly called him a "traitor". He was supposed to be friendly to the administration. It would be funny if Warsh was forced to hike and Powell pulled the...
Issing in the Wind: Otmar Issing’s Strategy Explained
I call it Issing in the wind, after the guy - Otmar Issing- who came up with this strategy
US Tech Imports Surge 110% as Non‑tech Falls
since Liberation Day, US non-tech imports are down 10%. Tech imports are up 110% https://t.co/hEbs6NasJ8
Looser Labour Market Means Milder Inflation Shock, Smaller Policy Response
Yesterday the BoE put out some analysis, basically showing the difference between now and 2022. Because the labour market is not so tight anymore, the shock to inflation should be much less persistent - justifying a smaller monetary response (if...
Geopolitics, Fed Legacy, and Dollar Surge Dominate Podcast
On this week's podcast: 1) Is the Iran crisis close to a tipping point? 2) What is Powell's legacy? 3) Is US exceptionalism back and the dollar about to rip? And an unusual amount of bickering because @freyabeamish just wont stop talking about abstract...
No One Expected Greenspan’s Rate Hikes to Lead to Jail
Of course, back then, nobody was going to put Greenspan in JAIL for raising rates 🤣
US Growth Rebounds, Inflation Resurges; Iran Uncertainty Looms
Came into this year saying US growth would reaccelerate and inflation would become an issue again. Seems pretty clear that was right.... now we just need some clarity on this Iran situation to understand if the first part is still...
German Monetarist Legacy Misguided ECB Policy Decisions
He also wrote the papers on how Germany "opted out" of the Great Inflation of the 1970s, which contributed to ECB policy mistakes in 2008, 2011 and [2026?]
Pill’s Issing Admiration Signals a Hawkish Turn
When Huw Pill said his central banking hero was Otmar Issing... that's when we knew...
Consensus on “Transitory” Inflation Proved Disastrously Wrong
Yes he let inflation escape but the whole "transitory" thing was one of the biggest consensus views of all time, largely because of what had happened in the previous decade. Nobody could imagine inflation being a problem anymore...
Powell Hailed as Fed Hero for Taming Inflation
This is going to annoy people (sorry...) but Powell is gonna be remembered as a hero at the Fed. Got inflation back down, delivered a soft landing, and stood up to enormous political pressure. Probably leaving at just the right...
Shipping Stagnation Deepens Energy Crisis Chaos
I'd feel much more comfortable "looking through" this energy crisis if shipping was flowing again through the Strait - even if we would still face months of choas - but even the FLOW hasn't resumed. This is becoming an intractable...