US Hormuz Blockade Sparks Surge in Oil, Gas Prices
US military says it’ll begin a Hormuz blockade at 10am ET Monday. Oil prices +8%, NatGas +13% early Monday in Asia. Also, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz shows the “highest” volumes since the war began (“highest” is of course relative) https://t.co/WbMMywBrZu
China Poised to End PPI Deflation in March
Probably the most globally consequential data point you didn’t know was coming out this week. China is expected to have exited PPI deflation in March. Data due in ~90 min. https://t.co/i6OFkfd0Ki
VIX Returns to Pre‑War Levels, Signaling Calm
VIX signals worst of the war is over. All three (VIX, futures and VIX of the VIX) back down to pre-war levels Could shift back higher (of course) but currently, back to normal https://t.co/q54gbzBIYf
President Sets Tuesday Deadline, Threatens Iran's Bridges
We showed this graphic on shows today. Note the new deadline from the US President: 8PM ET on Tuesday for a deal before "“Every bridge in Iran will be decimated" by 12 midnight ET. https://t.co/5Gtf7QdY8z
Philippines' Inflation Spike Highlights Energy Import Risks
Philippine inflation sees biggest upward shift (from previous month) in 30 years. This underscores how quickly macro outlook can shift for net energy importers https://t.co/uyJL7TG4tv
Mag7 Stocks Dip to 20x Valuation
Now there’s something you’d thought maybe you’d see never, some mag7 names trading at just 20x https://t.co/cWAtryHKuD
Current Oil Sensitivity Metrics Based on Price Range and Velocity
In case useful, considering both oil’s recent price range and price velocity, here are the current sensitivity measures to the oil price https://t.co/nbPN3tJ8na
March Sees Record $12 Trillion Global Market Wipeout
Global stocks lost $12 trillion in March, the single-largest value wipeout on record in a single month (≠ to worst month on record; that's still Oct 2008, just that now the market is much much bigger) https://t.co/8vhOHCCPTu
Chinese Stocks Show Resilience, CSI 300 Leads Surge
Chinese stocks will be relatively resilient amid the March selloff. Heard this view a lot on shows this entire month. It's turned out to be on the money. CSI 300 is set for biggest monthly outperformance since middle of last year...
US Stocks Barely Reflect War Risks, S&P Down 6%
The notion US stocks have yet to price in a dramatic war escalation makes sense. The S&P 500’s down just 6% from the peak. We’ve seen mediocre earnings, eco reports trigger deeper declines than the one we have currently https://t.co/esTq56VbOq
Asian Markets Plunge 3-4% on Shaky Monday
Had a short window to record this as we go live this Monday. Just to show: markets are in really bad shape this Monday. Japan and Korea are down 3-4% https://t.co/qr5MVM9jzS
Saudi Arabia Activates Hidden Pipeline to Secure Oil Flow
Saudi Arabia rolls out key contingency plan to keep the oil flowing: a decades-old pipeline the world didn’t know it needed until today. Fantastic piece from our colleagues, check it out below. 🔉on (And ya, how cool is the power...
Rising Energy Prices Heighten Recession Risks in Asia
With global energy prices going vertical, the next metrics to watch are recession probabilities of net energy importers - particularly in South and Southeast Asia https://t.co/ehwgNBNqH4
Weak Currency and Deregulation Amplify Philippines' Oil Price Pain
Here’s why high oil prices are hitting places like the Philippines a lot harder than others (net energy importer, deregulated, very weak currency, relatively low income) 🔉on https://t.co/qMgihHYgGD
Oil Shock Upends Markets; Fed Cut No Longer Expected
There is probably no single individual asset as widely-consequential to global markets than oil. The financial system’s simply not built to adjust smoothly to extreme swings in oil, let alone in the face of third-biggest quarterly jump in 40 years. Global...
