Ultra‑processed Foods Drive Calorie Surplus and Weight Gain
UFPs are not fake. Cheetos are not raw carrots, and people eat Cheetos differently than they eat raw carrots, and it’s okay to use different words and categories to describe them. But in fairness, the UPF category is hilariously vague. Whole wheat bread with one preservative is a UPF. So is a Twinkie. The idea that both of these things deserve the same label is stupid. Caloric surplus/deficit is absolutely critical for weight and health , and UPFs are engineered to go down in a whoosh with v high caloric density; that’s probably why small RCTs have shown they reliably lead to overeating and weight gain. Ultraprocessed snack food puts a lot of people in chronic caloric surplus bc they’re so easy to eat quickly without feeling full, whereas you don’t hear a lot about ppl eating raw carrots to the point of obesity. Nutrition science is hard and under-funded, but keeping the main thing the main thing here: Chronic caloric surplus is bad and a lot of UPF is significantly associated with higher calorie intake. (And we shouldn’t be putting skull and bones labels on whole wheat bread from Trader Joe’s.)
GLP Outpaces GPT in Revenue for Now
For now, in the revenue showdown between the two most hyped technologies of the 2020s, GLP > GPT
China Gains Upper Hand in Iran Conflict
Today's pod: WHY CHINA IS WINNING THE IRAN WAR Energy crises tend to have strange ripple effects. The 1970s oil crises contributed to (among many other things): - stagflation, the demise of the New Deal order in America, & the ensuing...
AI Outsourcing Risks Empty Minds, Not Just Faster Drafts
Writing is thinking, and people who outsource the full writing process to AI will find their screens full of words and their minds empty of thought. But also: All writing involves and has always involved “outsourcing”—reaching outside of the writer’s...
Mastering the “Just Online Enough” Balance for Influence
i think being 'just online enough' is a major skill -- for journalists, politicians, companies. for politicians, you don't want to be offline (the vibes matter) but you don't want to mistake viral moments for the pulse of popular opinion same for...
Phones Fuel Anxiety and Polarization Primarily in America
New newsletter: THERE'S SOMETHING VERY WEIRD ABOUT PHONES AND AMERICA The most interesting thing about the Smartphone Theory of Everything is that it's really a Smartphone Theory of Everything in America and the English-Speaking World. While phones are everywhere, the problems that...
Early Skeptics Proved Right as Oil Prices Soar
Two weeks ago, Brent oil futures were in the 80s; the president was telling reporters that the war was "very complete" and that Iran was begging to negotiate; and WH defenders were claiming the war was "over" and accusing commodity...
Superpowers Overestimate Blitzkrieg, Underestimate Resistance
It’s amazing to me how many resources must be devoted to geopolitical strategy, intelligence gathering, and war planning in the US and Russia; and yet the two most high-profile wars of the last five years involve a military superpower attempting...
Trump’s Southeast Asia Policy Turns Allies Into Economic Targets
America’s foreign policy toward Southeast Asia under Trump has been: 1. Slap them with the some of the highest tariff rates in the world 2. Launch Section 301 investigations of their trade practices 3. Create a global energy and commodities crisis that...
Leadership Ignoring Data Leads to Strategic Chaos
Great reporting on the Washington Post’s conundrum in the last 15 months. TLDR: - we have to follow the data - we have to follow the data - “Mr Bezos, the data says that single-handedly canceling a political endorsement will be catastrophic for...
US War Prep Undermines Oil, Helium, and Alliances
Okay good, let's say the WH planned for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz following the attack. 1. The U.S. sold off its helium reserve before waging a war that they knew would disrupt helium exports to allies, which make...
Reality Is a Book; Experience Is Just a Sentence
Reality is a book, and experience is a sentence. From my wonderful conversation this week w/ @nireyal—> https://t.co/FCPUJH0VhL
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Economy Across All Sectors
The Iran War could trigger a global economic crisis and you won’t find a better summary of why than this one sentence from Rachel Ziemba below. Yes, this is about gas prices. But it’s also about: - the cost of food...
Stop Using “Mr. President” In Modern Headlines
I recognize this is not the most important thing in the world but it is critically necessary that we have national moratorium on pleading "Mr. President" headlines. Something so tiresomely 1957 about "Mr. President, I Beseech You That the Time...