Chief economist and prominent U.S. macro voice. Posts on employment, inflation, monetary policy, and growth/inflation outlooks.
My write up coming soon of GDP, inflation, employment and the Supreme court ruling IEEPA tariffs illegal. Curb your enthusiasm. Refunds are not guaranteed & the logistics to quote the Court are a “mess.” Moreover, the admiration has other levers to pull at any time to reinstate those tariffs. High level observations Jobless boom in 2025 left us with a fire & ice economy. Growth remained resilient, but slowed. Inflation heated up, with the PCE index - the Fed’s…
Today’s burst of economic data showed an economy still powered by the boom in data centers with some broader increases in vehicle orders (Dec) and production (Jan). Housing starts popped in December and were revised higher for November. Good...
The CPI data came in cooler than expected, which is always welcome. The headline is obscuring some of the underlying inflation due to the loss in data associated with the government shutdown. The overall index posted its coolest reading since...
The labor market showed signs of healing late in 2025 and in January. Catch up following long government shutdown helps alleviate ranks of those suffering temporary layoffs and forced to accept part instead of full-time jobs. Some healthy churn returned...