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Diane Swonk

Diane Swonk

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Chief economist and prominent U.S. macro voice. Posts on employment, inflation, monetary policy, and growth/inflation outlooks.

Jobless Boom Creates a Fire‑and‑ice Economy Despite Slowing Growth
Social•Feb 20, 2026

Jobless Boom Creates a Fire‑and‑ice Economy Despite Slowing Growth

My write up coming soon of GDP, inflation, employment and the Supreme court ruling IEEPA tariffs illegal. Curb your enthusiasm. Refunds are not guaranteed & the logistics to quote the Court are a “mess.” Moreover, the admiration has other levers to pull at any time to reinstate those tariffs. High level observations Jobless boom in 2025 left us with a fire & ice economy. Growth remained resilient, but slowed. Inflation heated up, with the PCE index - the Fed’s…

By Diane Swonk
Data Centers Drive Growth as Fed Shows Internal Split
Social•Feb 18, 2026

Data Centers Drive Growth as Fed Shows Internal Split

Today’s burst of economic data showed an economy still powered by the boom in data centers with some broader increases in vehicle orders (Dec) and production (Jan). Housing starts popped in December and were revised higher for November. Good...

By Diane Swonk
CPI Cool, but Data Gaps Mask True Inflation
Social•Feb 13, 2026

CPI Cool, but Data Gaps Mask True Inflation

The CPI data came in cooler than expected, which is always welcome. The headline is obscuring some of the underlying inflation due to the loss in data associated with the government shutdown. The overall index posted its coolest reading since...

By Diane Swonk
Labor Market Rebounds After Shutdown, Easing Temporary Layoffs
Social•Feb 11, 2026

Labor Market Rebounds After Shutdown, Easing Temporary Layoffs

The labor market showed signs of healing late in 2025 and in January. Catch up following long government shutdown helps alleviate ranks of those suffering temporary layoffs and forced to accept part instead of full-time jobs. Some healthy churn returned...

By Diane Swonk

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