Treat AI as a Medium, Not Just a Tool
We should spend less time thinking about AI as a tool and more time thinking about AI as a medium. What's the difference? "Giving every musician a music-making machine" vs. "Inventing the record player."
2026 US Unemployment Beats 1990 Levels, Factories Safe
The US Unemployment rate in 2026 is lower than it was in 1990. Turns out factory workers had nothing to worry about... https://t.co/c2CeWYLrYK
Architectural Breakthroughs Could Break Scaling Limits, Stay Vigilant
It’s a tempting conclusion. LLM performance and scale is a function of physical inputs, so we’re back in the old linear world. But a slight change in the architecture of AI models would completely upend this arrangement, so uncertainty...
Blockade Excludes Non‑Iranian Ports, Allowing Global Oil Access
An important nuance: The blockade doesn't apply to ships that enter or leave non-Iranian ports. So China and everyone else are free to pick up barrels in Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait... unless *Iran* tries to stop them.
Pressuring China Is the Key to Curb Iran's Influence
I am once again reminding you that the only way to pressure Iran is to pressure China, and that China cannot afford a global recession.
Venture Funding Soars While One‑Third of SF Offices Remain Empty
The biggest venture boom in history, and a third of San Francisco offices are empty.
JR East Outpaces All of China’s Rail Passengers
A single Japanese train company, JR East, carries more passengers than China’s entire railway system.
Landlords Accept Massive Office Tower Losses After COVID
Th Four Stages of Offices Grief, finally reaching Acceptance. WSJ: “Landlords and their lenders held on to their office towers for years, hoping for a turnaround after Covid. Now, they are accepting enormous losses.“ https://t.co/5MKOtfeAFm
AI Delivers Personalized Tutoring, but Adds Hidden Costs
How will AI change education? I am seeing glimpses in the way my kids use @sage_teacher: Each kid gets a personalized teacher, the AI guide keeps them engaged and challenged, and the parents have to pay extra to avoid the manipulation...
Defense Decline Drives One‑Quarter of Manufacturing Job Loss
“the 1950s-to-1990s decline in defense production explains roughly one-quarter of the decline in manufacturing employment and nearly one-tenth of the rise of top-ten income share.” https://t.co/UrqjdGuEIk
Postwar “Normal” Economy Was Historically Unprecedented
The “normal” postwar economy that everyone misses was the most unusual moment in all of economic history. Military spending was just one aspect…
Data Centers Boost GDP, Healthcare Jobs Keep Unemployment Low
The future unfolding in plain sight: GDP growth propped up by data center construction. Low unemployment propped up by healthcare jobs. https://t.co/aADxNaQXij
US‑Iran Conflict Feels Like a Rainy Chess Match
The US-Iran war is a chess game. In the rain. With one party more engaged than the other. (what do you think @Kasparov63?) https://t.co/9Wt6VCSOrh
Employment Rate Masks Hidden Shifts; 1990s Workers Untroubled
What the employment rate doesn’t show: full-time vs part-time/gig, hours worked, income inequality, geographic shifts. Based on this chart, 1990s factory workers had nothing to worry about China & automation either.
Capex Growing Faster Than Revenue Drives Returns
It’s not “unhappy returns”; it’s “capex is growing faster than revenue”. How it ends, depends. https://t.co/TtHGrcIFW8
War Reverses Order: Battles Before Alliances
This world war is progressing backwards: first the fighting, then the alliances that connect the different theatres.
AI Productivity Rises when Machines Talk to Each Other
Most AI-driven productivity will come from AIs speaking to themselves rather than to us. It's easiest to see this on the road: Cars driving themselves is cool. But all cars coordinating the flow of traffic together is a whole different story.
Hourly-Paid Users Drive Teams' Perfect Product-Market Fit
No. Teams actually has the best product-market fit. Its users are paid by the hour and are incentivized to pass the time
City‑Level Diplomacy Could Revitalize the Middle East
Tel Aviv’s government released a new video to welcome Iranian tourists. The Middle East would be in much better shape if cities were in charge: TLV, Beirut, Dubai, Tehran, Cairo… some of the coolest places on earth. https://t.co/Cy72JT0KZY
AI Fabricates Iran Leader’s Presence Amid Khamenei’s Absence
Generative AI is enabling the world's first virtual leader: Iran's Mojtaba Khamenei is incapacitated and has not been seen in public (or in private?) since his official appointment. But his AI "action photos" make it look like he's in charge....
Iran's Regime Now Mirrors Hezbollah, a 40‑year Target
The good news: Iran’s regime has been reduced to a disjointed terrorist force like Hezbollah The bad news: Israel & US have been trying to get rid of Hezbollah for 40 years
Iran's Missiles Reach 4,000 Km, Exceeding Prior Claims
Both missed, but still. “Iran’s targeting of Diego Garcia, about 4,000 kilometers from Iran, implies its missiles have a greater range than Tehran has previously acknowledged.” https://t.co/4Ll8mz9eNN
Netanyahu Undermines Global Unity on Nuclear Iran
Netanyahu is like reverse Churchill: he managed to convince the whole world *not* to unite against a nuclear Iran.
Future Work Means Not Feeling Like Work
The future of work is not realizing you're working. We spend hours a day doing that already. https://t.co/zauZvHDOLj
Israel Strikes Iranian Fleet, Halting Russia‑Iran Weapons Pipeline
Israel is cutting the Russia-Iran weapons pipeline. Ukraine is defending Arabian oil fields from Iranian drones. Meanwhile, Europe's great powers are... monitoring the situation.
China, Russia, Iran Form Layered Proxy Network Fueling Conflicts
I'm surprised that people are surprised that China and Russia are aiding Iran's war efforts.
Uncertainty Means Losing Trust in Your Work’s Value
What we think uncertainty means: Not knowing which jobs will replace the current ones. What it actually means: No longer knowing whether your current actions have any economic value.
Iran's Alleged Strait Move: Face‑saving Bluff, Not Blockade
If true, this is actually a face-saving withdrawal by the Iranians. It lets them pretend to be mean to US & Israel without actually blocking the strait. But I doubt it’s true. https://t.co/xCTeY2zGRE
France's Troop Offer Could Finally Curb Hezbollah in Lebanon
If France is willing to send troops to support Lebanon’s army, the country might finally rid itself of Hezbollah. A big if.
Iran Stands Firm; China Faces Bigger Oil Risks
The threat to destroy Kharg Island won't convince Iran to back down. But it might convince China to convince Iran to back down. Oil prices may harm the US, but an actual oil shortage or global recession will hurt China.
AI Won’t Rescue Downtown Offices, Just Like Automation Missed Factories
"Expecting AI to revive central office districts was like expecting automation to revive factory towns."
Innovation Hubs Face Record Office Vacancies Amid Boom
The two global centers of software and hardware innovation, San Francisco and Shenzhen, also have the highest share of empty offices. During a boom.