India's Cabotage Reversal Threatens Sri Lanka Transshipment Role
Serious question: But isn't India reversing the 2018 cabotage reform? Where does that leave Sri Lanka and India in the transshipment picture?
Land Routes in Eurasia Still Economically Unviable
Worked on Eurasian connectivity pretty extensively in the 2000s ... not new and land transport is a good idea, especially if you are sitting in the heart of Eurasia, since it helps break you out of the perverse economic effects...
China‑Gulf Ties Could Deepen Despite Iran‑focused U.S. Narrative
This would be quite interesting if it happens and is a reflection of why so much of the Washington chatter about how the China/Gulf story is somehow only an "Iran" story misses a lot. The story is on background and...
Chinese Auto Investment Stumbles Over U.S. Data Security
This is an honest statement from Lutnick that belies a lot of the nonsense around about "pumping up Chinese investment" in the U.S. automotive sector. So much of the trajectory in automotive involves autonomous and connected driving, with a heavy...
Misguided Hot Takes Misrepresent Indonesia's Nuanced Foreign Policy
No kidding, really? Folks with all the nutty hot takes this week about how Indonesia has "jumped in bed with Washington" and is "booting China" from Southeast Asia in some American game of 463D chess have clearly never actually set...
Global Order Isn’t Decided by Armenia, Mongolia, Pakistan
No offense but sorry, the future of global order does not hinge on Armenia, Mongolia, and Pakistan. This is not “decisive terrain.” I’ve been around a long time but the “great game” metaphors are the most abused ever.
China’s Leaders Alarmed by AI‑driven Job Losses
Superb piece from my #CarnegieAsia teammate @mattsheehan88 on why Chinese leaders and AI policymakers are becoming increasingly concerned about impacts on employment. "Over the past two years, worries about AI displacing workers and leading to structural unemployment have shot up...
Trump Threatens to Scrap UK Deal over Iran Stance
Seriously, what is the point of making a trade deal with the United States if the President will just pull out of it over unrelated issues or policy differences? “Trump threatens to shred UK trade deal over Starmer’s Iran war...
Indonesia's Ongoing Push Beyond ASEAN Through Multilateral Diplomacy
Indonesia has been flirting with ways to break out of an ASEAN box through several administrations, not just Prabowo’s. Can point to bilateral diplomacy like this Russia/US contrast visual, pre-Prabowo versions of the same, plurilaterals, and of course G20 much...
Vietnam-China Security Ties Deepen Through Carnegie Insights
Terrific piece on Vietnam-China internal security cooperation from our talented #CarnegieAsia junior fellow Sophie Zhuang. Builds on themes from others in our @CarnegieEndow Asia program, especially @SheenaGreitens.
Trump’s Grand Strategy Myth Meets Indonesia’s Reality
Here we go, right on schedule ... Now Trump is Alfred Thayer Mahan (already crossed with Bismarck, Clausewitz, Delbruck, Jomini, and Sun Zi). Jakarta has its issues with China. But sorry, if folks think Indonesia is going to magically join...
China Expands Extraterritorial Reach with New Regulation
A little ironic, since China has itself is applying its own laws and regulations extraterritorially. But this seems significant to me as another tool in Beijing's arsenal: 中华人民共和国国务院令 第835号: 中华人民共和国反外国不当域外管辖条例.https://t.co/T6FFDqCYKN
US Expands Outreach to Indonesia, Easing China Tension
Cue the insanely exaggerated "we've back footed China in Panama, Hormuz, and now Malacca" takes in 3-2-1 ... That said, this is a good development and it's good to see the Department's outreach to Southeast Asia and Indonesia in particular.
China’s Coal Power Fuels Energy Resilience Amid Crises
The war with Iran and the Hormuz closure have kicked up a lot of debate about Chinese energy futures. And Venezuela, from which China also bought oil, adds fuel to one piece of that debate. But my #CarnegieAsia teammate @damienics,...
Southeast Asia Must Rethink Energy Security Amid Crisis
There is no better time for the countries of Southeast Asia to reconsider their energy security than during this latest crisis. My #CarnegieAsia teammate, Indonesia’s former trade minister @GWirjawan, tackles Southeast Asia’s agency during the current crisis. https://t.co/hrpRX8kt83
Fuel Crisis Pushes Indonesia Toward Perilous Policy Trade‑offs
A terrific piece from my #CarnegieAsia teammate @sdjaffrey on how the fuel crisis is forcing politically perilous trade-offs in Indonesia. As conflict in the Middle East drives up fuel costs across Asia, Indonesia faces difficult policy trade-offs over subsidies, inflation,...
Iran War Undermines U.S. Strategy Across Asia
As the United States wages war with Iran, much of Washington has been consumed with a geopolitical debate about what it will mean for America’s strategic competition with China. But this abstract debate belies the harsh realities now facing governments,...
Manila, Hanoi, Putrajaya Pursue Separate Iran Energy Deals
Manila, Hanoi, and Putrajaya all seeking separate deals with Iran on energy access in the last few days …
Chinese Firms Profit by Reselling Record LNG Amid High Prices
"Chinese firms are reselling record volumes of LNG, cashing in on soaring spot prices as China has enough domestic and pipeline gas to meet its own weakened demand, in stark contrast to other Asian buyers scrambling to replace supplies cut...
Hegemons Can't Claim Burden Sharing While Rejecting Public Goods
Burden sharing is a more than reasonable expectation in alliances. But (1) "we're the hegemon," and (2) "over to you guys, because we don't do public goods" don't usually go together.
Fuel Crises Force Asian Leaders to Choose Welfare or Deficits
So we now seem to have fuel price caps and three airlines in emergency management in South Korea, have had school closures in Bangladesh and Pakistan, jet fuel rationing and a push to work-from-home in Vietnam, alternate-day driving for private...
China’s Hardline Shift on Tehran Mirrors Past Pyongyang Tactics
Pretty surprising if folks ever thought Beijing would put the strong arm on Tehran in this way. A closer look at China’s tactics (and non-tactics) with Pyongyang over the decades would have been instructive.
Analyzing Global Powers' Stance on Iran Conflict
As always, I had a ton of fun doing my friend and colleague @aarondmiller2's show #CarnegieConnects, especially with my @CarnegieEndow teammates @RosaBalfour and @AlexGabuev. Aaron asked us, how are Russia and China, two of Iran’s closet partners, faring in the...
Chinese ULCSs Navigate Hormuz, Hinting at Geopolitical Signal
Two Chinese ultra-large container vessels from COSCO successfully transited Hormuz today ... was that "tribute" to Washington too? Come on. https://t.co/HcXHI5iQsD
New War Objective Emerges Beyond Nuclear and Missile Threats
We apparently have a new war aim and it isn't related to nuclear weapons or missiles ...
Japan's Security Policy Evolves: New Japanese Perspectives Unveiled
1/3: Japan’s security posture is intensively debated inside the country—and its security policy is, therefore, dynamic and evolving. A new series of essays from two new #CarnegieAsia nonresident scholars seeks to appreciate these dynamics from a Japanese perspective, harnessing in...
Insights Into China's New Five-Year Plan
An assessment of China's new Five-Year Plan from my @CarnegieEndow teammate @damienics who directs @CarnegieChina in Singapore.
Kazakhstan’s View of China Hardens After Ukraine War
Kazakhstan–China Relations: Perceptions of China After the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Gaziza Shakhanova, 2026 https://t.co/lD5RrER3uG
Reciprocal Defense Procurement Could Deepen US‑India Partnership
Good read from my @CarnegieIndia teammate @KonarkBhandari on "What Could a Reciprocal Defense Procurement Agreement Do for U.S.-India Ties?" https://t.co/BrZDRydmDm
Asia Reunites Historically; U.S. Unprepared for New Reality
In 2011, fifteen years ago, I wrote an essay for @TWQgw on the reemergence of an interconnected "historical Asia" instead of the fragmented "Cold War Asia" anomaly to which Americans had grown accustomed. A fantastic essay in Swarajya on the...
Russia and China Unite as the West Fragments
In which Stubb states reality ... So to those who dream of a "reverse Nixon," here's the reality of a "reverse 'reverse Nixon'," where Russia and China largely hang together despite their points of difference and tension while the West...
Trump May Abandon Hormuz Crisis, Leaving Others to Fix
Why shouldn't the presumption be that they will just negotiate deals with Iran and accommodate the regime the United States flirted with trying to change? India, Japan, Pakistan, others are already negotiating Hormuz passage directly. Why not presume they will "clean...
Security Narcissism Threatens Asia; Europe Finally Engages India
A couple of years old - but this was a fun podcast that really dug into what "Asia" is and isn't becoming. "State of Asia with Evan Feigenbaum ... On what Evan calls 'security narcissism,' Asian rules, and Europe's absent...
Without U.S
Most countries' response to "[you] guard and police Hormuz" in the absence of U.S. power because you are the ones "who use it" will presumably be to accommodate and then make deals with Tehran.
War with China Under Nuclear Shadow
Spoiler alert: Fighting a conventional war with China, much less under the shadow of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems, won't be anything like picking up Maduro in Caracas.
China’s Investment Shifts Toward Clean Energy, Manufacturing
This story is being replicated in other regions too, e.g., Central Asia, where the China story now includes renewables, manufacturing, and more ... "Where early engagement centered on oil, gas and mining, recent years show a marked shift towards clean...
Claims of Defense Mask Ongoing Iran Accommodation
Somewhat heroically presumes they will be "forced to defend it" rather than just accommodating Iran ... which is essentially what some of them and other key consumers were already doing?
Moscow and Beijing Stay Allied, West Fractures—'reverse Nixon' Myth Busted
Here we go again with the "reverse Nixon" fantasy. This is an evergreen delusion from people who either played too many games of Risk or Stratego as kids, haven't actually bothered to read the history of what was happening when...
China's Central Asian Influence Extends Beyond Extractive Industries
I'm afraid China's economic presence in Central Asia went way beyond oil, gas, and mining some time ago. If folks still think it's all just about extractive industries, they've missed quite a bit about the Chinese presence.
China Adopts US‑style Economic Coercion as America Wanes
China learned economic coercion from the best, as I wrote with Adam Szubin in this coauthored 2023 essay in @ForeignAffairs: https://t.co/fsxpb7Zusb
Trump’s “We Don’t Need Help” Risks U.S. Isolation
If you aspire to primacy, then "WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE" are words that may very well come back to bite the United States in the ass.
President's Cute Post Fails to Rally Hormuz Support
The President posted this? If he was actually trying to persuade allies, partners, and others to deploy to Hormuz, this surely is not going to do it. But he obviously thinks this kind of thing is just so cute.
US President Appears to Beg China for Naval Support
"Evan Feigenbaum, an Asia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that, after 10 years of US warnings about the need to constrain China, 'we’re now in a bizarro world where the president actually appears to be begging...
Timing of Operations Before or After Hostilities Matters
I'm no Clausewitz but "whether those operations would begin before or after hostilities end" seems like kind of an important detail.
President Manufactures Excuse, Demands Chinese Fleet Precondition
Basically, the President is looking for an excuse to back out of the trip to Beijing and thus is trying to manufacture one? How else to possibly explain demanding a Chinese expeditionary naval deployment to the Gulf as a...
China’s Middle East Play: Diversified, Not Iran‑Centric
This is not in fact "a jaw dropping twist" to anyone who has paid attention to China's approach to the Middle East. Beijing has a diversified portfolio of partners and interests, has never put all its eggs in the Iran...
President Tariffs Still Active; 301s Have Anchor
Of course they are. In case anyone thought President Tariffs was actually done with tariffs. But at least 301s have an anchor.
China Won’t Risk Credibility by Pressuring Others
Evergreen argument. Unfortunately, I've heard this same argument many times on Russia ("Beijing should pressure Moscow" to deescalate with Ukraine), North Korea ("Beijing should coerce and pressure for denuclearization"), and Pakistan ("Beijing should press its partner" in at least two...
China's Iran Strategy Highlights U.S. Strategic Shortcomings
What, then, are the carefully defined objectives with Iran that China will supposedly measure U.S. performance against? I think what China has learned, at least up until now, is that matching means to ends may now be a skill that...
Former TPP Negotiator Offers Skeptical View on Trade Pact
A more skeptical take from my #CarnegieAsia colleague Barbara Weisel, who was, among other negotiating roles, the U.S. negotiator of TPP: https://t.co/qWfsfWFbf1