Evan Medeiros

Evan Medeiros

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The Trade Risk founder; end-of-day swing trader; price breakout/momentum systems.

Year's Lowest-Volume Day Leaves Market Liquidity Thin
SocialApr 7, 2026

Year's Lowest-Volume Day Leaves Market Liquidity Thin

Yesterday was the lowest-volume session of the year. Today’s picking up slightly, but liquidity is still thin for this time of year. $QQQ $SPY https://t.co/9gr6CfZanL

By Evan Medeiros
Lumentum Leads Momentum, Defying Macro and Climbing Higher
SocialApr 7, 2026

Lumentum Leads Momentum, Defying Macro and Climbing Higher

Biggest momentum winner for us right now is Lumentum Holdings, which continues to ignore the macro and trend higher. Snapshot of our current trade management: exit zone and next target levels shown below. $LITE https://t.co/feveLMp1Wr

By Evan Medeiros
NVDA's Edge over SMH Peaked, Now Declining
SocialApr 7, 2026

NVDA's Edge over SMH Peaked, Now Declining

NVIDIA relative to Semiconductor ETF $SMH peaked last summer and still trending lower $NVDA https://t.co/h6mRumShhQ

By Evan Medeiros
Market Pauses After Hedge Burn, Awaiting Next Fuel
SocialApr 4, 2026

Market Pauses After Hedge Burn, Awaiting Next Fuel

The market caught its breath this week, burned off some hedges and worked off oversold conditions, now we'll see how much fuel is left in the tank. We discuss in this week's episode. $SPY $QQQ $USO $XLE $VIX Watch here: https://t.co/pQRRTne2Ml https://t.co/NonzTIzPU0

By Evan Medeiros
Relief Rally Fades: Volatility Favors Small, Active Strategies
SocialApr 3, 2026

Relief Rally Fades: Volatility Favors Small, Active Strategies

Markets staged a relief rally this week, but let's not get too comfortable. Two-way volatility favors smaller size and active management. We discuss where we see opportunity in this week's video. $SPY $QQQ $USO $SMH $XLB https://t.co/0IDPYxFYrM

By Evan Medeiros
Use Relief Rally to Right‑size Portfolio After Leg Down
SocialApr 1, 2026

Use Relief Rally to Right‑size Portfolio After Leg Down

If you didn't like how your portfolio felt last week on the latest leg down, this relief rally is a good spot to right-size things.

By Evan Medeiros
Nike Investors Endure 74% Loss over Five Years
SocialApr 1, 2026

Nike Investors Endure 74% Loss over Five Years

I don’t know what’s more painful: losing 74% of your investment from the highs, or having to sit through it for five years. Tough stretch for Nike investors $NKE https://t.co/qoshCVwoO0

By Evan Medeiros
Long Momentum Play: Solstice Advanced Materials Poised to Break Higher
SocialMar 31, 2026

Long Momentum Play: Solstice Advanced Materials Poised to Break Higher

One of my favorite long setups in our momentum model is Solstice Advanced Materials seen here on @IBDinvestors MarketSurge. Recent IPO in materials/chemicals with a great trend structure. Now just waiting on this range to resolve up (disclosure: long) $SOLS...

By Evan Medeiros
Gold Aims to Rebound; $430 GLD Breach Restores Bullish Confidence
SocialMar 31, 2026

Gold Aims to Rebound; $430 GLD Breach Restores Bullish Confidence

Weekly chart of Gold trying to lead out of the hole after suffering its largest drawdown since 2022. A move back over 430 in $GLD ETF should bring more confidence back to the bull side. (long) https://t.co/awUJXQ86tT

By Evan Medeiros
XME Pullback Offers Potential Entry, Awaiting Stabilization
SocialMar 31, 2026

XME Pullback Offers Potential Entry, Awaiting Stabilization

Metals & Mining ETF $XME is one of the pullback opportunities I'm watching here on @IBDinvestors MarketSurge. Decent 25% correction from highs, but I still want to see more stabilization to tell me it's ready to resume higher. #IBDPartner https://t.co/beBYip9G1n

By Evan Medeiros
Semis Dragging Down, Targeting Low‑Mid 300s
SocialMar 30, 2026

Semis Dragging Down, Targeting Low‑Mid 300s

Semiconductors are leading the downside to kick off the week. Wouldn't hate seeing low-to-mid 300s for some longer-term adds. $SMH https://t.co/Ucxvgogf5w

By Evan Medeiros
SMR Stocks Plunge 70%; Bulls Eye 2026 Turnaround
SocialMar 30, 2026

SMR Stocks Plunge 70%; Bulls Eye 2026 Turnaround

SMR stocks were the market darlings in 2025. Most of them are now 70%+ below their highs. Any bulls betting on a 2026 turnaround? $OKLO https://t.co/NvGy8ZfTGA

By Evan Medeiros
Rate Hike Outlook Reverses, 10‑Year Yields Surge
SocialMar 29, 2026

Rate Hike Outlook Reverses, 10‑Year Yields Surge

We started 2026 with multiple rate cuts priced in. Now the market is leaning towards a hike. The 10-year is at 4.43% and still accelerating. We cover what that feedback loop means for stocks in the latest episode. $SPY $QQQ $IEF...

By Evan Medeiros
SolarEdge Revives Amid Tough Swing‑long Market
SocialMar 28, 2026

SolarEdge Revives Amid Tough Swing‑long Market

Not an easy environment for swing longs, but there are still small pockets of stocks working. SolarEdge seen here on @IBDinvestors MarketSurge is one of them coming back from the dead over the last few quarters. #IBDPartner $SEDG https://t.co/OvmfGgTEJi

By Evan Medeiros
VIX Above 30 Signals Market Turbulence Ahead
SocialMar 28, 2026

VIX Above 30 Signals Market Turbulence Ahead

VIX closed at 31, its highest weekly close since last year’s tariff sell-off. When $VIX holds above 30, things tend to break. In this episode, we talk through exactly what we’re watching and how to navigate this environment. Watch: https://t.co/WlGqDNQSk1 $SPY $QQQ...

By Evan Medeiros
Nasdaq Slides Into Correction Amid Rate Hikes, Geopolitics
SocialMar 27, 2026

Nasdaq Slides Into Correction Amid Rate Hikes, Geopolitics

Nasdaq officially in correction territory as rates push higher and geopolitical tensions keep markets on edge. We break down what’s driving the volatility, key levels to watch, and how to navigate this swing trading environment in this week's episode $SPY $QQQ $IEF...

By Evan Medeiros
Iran-Driven Reversals Signal Growing Pressure in Tight Range
SocialMar 26, 2026

Iran-Driven Reversals Signal Growing Pressure in Tight Range

We’re now on the fourth or fifth Iran-driven market reversal this week. Mon: rally on ceasefire talk Tue: selloff after denial Wed: rally on U.S. peace plan Thu: selloff as Iran pushed back Hard to keep up, but put simply, pressure is building inside a...

By Evan Medeiros
Oracle Slides, Must Hold to Avoid February Low
SocialMar 25, 2026

Oracle Slides, Must Hold to Avoid February Low

Oracle is back to bleeding lower. Needs to hold in here soon to prevent that February low retest. $ORCL https://t.co/MeqTVksAx1

By Evan Medeiros
Biotech XBI Surges to 5‑day Highs, Finds Range Low
SocialMar 25, 2026

Biotech XBI Surges to 5‑day Highs, Finds Range Low

Market bouncing across the board, but biotech $XBI is standing out here. Strong follow-through [so far] pushing it through 5-day highs. Might finally have found the range low here? (disclosure: long) https://t.co/10IuXq9wlv

By Evan Medeiros
Market Stuck in Choppy Frustration, Spotting Strength Trade
SocialMar 24, 2026

Market Stuck in Choppy Frustration, Spotting Strength Trade

The market's taking the path of most frustration with no clean flush, just chop. Here's a short update on what I'm watching to signal the next real move, plus one trade idea showing serious relative strength despite the noise. $SPY...

By Evan Medeiros
Peapack-Gladstone Defies Regional Bank Pullback
SocialMar 24, 2026

Peapack-Gladstone Defies Regional Bank Pullback

Peapack-Gladstone must be doing something right. While most regional banks and financials are still stuck in pullback mode, $PGC is showing rising relative strength and pushing to the top of this recent range, seen here on @IBDinvestors MarketSurge. (no position) #IBDPartner...

By Evan Medeiros
Market Drop Hinges on SMH Breaking $375
SocialMar 24, 2026

Market Drop Hinges on SMH Breaking $375

The real whoosh down for the market likely doesn't happen until and if semiconductors $SMH loses this 375 zone. https://t.co/x8REbNaFPj

By Evan Medeiros
Utilities Stabilize as Rate Spike Begins Cooling
SocialMar 24, 2026

Utilities Stabilize as Rate Spike Begins Cooling

Utilities trying to stabilize today, spike in rates finally ready to cool off? $XLU https://t.co/t5R7ZEkbQT

By Evan Medeiros
Longs Find Breathing Room; Friday May Mark Low
SocialMar 23, 2026

Longs Find Breathing Room; Friday May Mark Low

We’re getting breathing room for longs this morning, but this is the tougher path for traders as price drifts back into the chop without a clear washout event. Friday could prove to be the low and the start of...

By Evan Medeiros
Gold Plummets; Defensive Stocks Offer No Shelter
SocialMar 22, 2026

Gold Plummets; Defensive Stocks Offer No Shelter

Gold just had one of its sharpest declines in over a decade, and the usual defensive sectors did not help at all last week. We break down the tactical clues we're using to navigate this market. $SPY $QQQ $GLD $XLV $XLP Watch...

By Evan Medeiros
Bear Pressure Builds, Yet Market Still Holds Firm
SocialMar 21, 2026

Bear Pressure Builds, Yet Market Still Holds Firm

Technical damage and bear sentiment is piling up. But we still haven't seen the kind of washout or capitulation that usually marks a cleaner turning point. We discuss what we're looking for in this week's video. 📺Watch: https://t.co/ieSqgIPzbx $SPY...

By Evan Medeiros
Rising Yields and Hawkish Fed Trigger Market Capitulation Risk
SocialMar 20, 2026

Rising Yields and Hawkish Fed Trigger Market Capitulation Risk

Markets rolled over this week as yields surged, the Fed stayed hawkish, and macro pressure built across the board. We break down the technical damage, what’s driving the risk-off move, and why a capitulation event could be next. $SPY $QQQ...

By Evan Medeiros
10-Year Yield Climbs Steadily, Market Bets Tighter Longer
SocialMar 20, 2026

10-Year Yield Climbs Steadily, Market Bets Tighter Longer

10Y yield is still ripping higher in a straight line from that brief 3 handle tease. Market says, tighter for longer. $TNX $IEF https://t.co/dbZrSwrwwr

By Evan Medeiros
Strong Micron Earnings Fail, Market Shows Weakness
SocialMar 19, 2026

Strong Micron Earnings Fail, Market Shows Weakness

Micron delivered the kind of earnings report that would typically get rewarded. Instead, the stock dropped out the gate. That tells you a lot about the current tape. Our momentum model is long $MU https://t.co/lIbnvWxb3S

By Evan Medeiros
Biotech's Healthy Pullback Opens Entry Below $170
SocialMar 17, 2026

Biotech's Healthy Pullback Opens Entry Below $170

I've been slowly starting a position in $IBB toward the lower end of this range, under 170. Biotech as a group, has been digesting last year’s run-up in a pretty healthy fashion [so far]. Chart from @IBDinvestors MarketSurge (disclosure: long)....

By Evan Medeiros
Ubiquiti Rebounds, Targeting Breakout Above $800
SocialMar 17, 2026

Ubiquiti Rebounds, Targeting Breakout Above $800

Ubiquiti back to former highs after a 36% correction seen below on @IBDinvestors MarketSurge. I like the company fundamentals, price action is firm, now watching for breakout over 800 $UI #IBDPartner https://t.co/tD8wn5JWVz

By Evan Medeiros
Software IGV Shows Potential Higher Low This Week
SocialMar 17, 2026

Software IGV Shows Potential Higher Low This Week

There's that *potential* higher low in software $IGV. Still early in the week, let's see how this progresses. https://t.co/xVpU0JNgtS

By Evan Medeiros
Financials Edge Up, Testing Downtrend Line
SocialMar 17, 2026

Financials Edge Up, Testing Downtrend Line

It ain't much, but nice to see financials at least off the lows and attacking the downtrend line. One step at a time, but need to see more stabilization here. $XLF https://t.co/Zs3EOXIR56

By Evan Medeiros
ASTS Gains Momentum as RKLB Remains Un
SocialMar 17, 2026

ASTS Gains Momentum as RKLB Remains Un

Space is hot today. We don’t own the leader $RKLB. Maybe today’s close will give us the signal. But $ASTS is starting to firm up for us with a good look in the momentum book. https://t.co/QZBKwq6OHP

By Evan Medeiros
Process Over Timing: Re‑entering NBIS After Breakout
SocialMar 16, 2026

Process Over Timing: Re‑entering NBIS After Breakout

Tried to buy Nebius on a breakout late February and got stopped out. Jumped back in last week on a second buy signal, and so far so good on the heels of today's Meta news. Choppy tape, wins and losses,...

By Evan Medeiros
Consider Buying NVIDIA if It Slides Below $170
SocialMar 15, 2026

Consider Buying NVIDIA if It Slides Below $170

Not exactly willing to chase or overpay for large-cap tech right now, but I wouldn’t be mad about an undercut of the 170 lows to pick up some cheap NVIDIA. Discussed more in this week’s video: https://t.co/ov4LwpAgW0 $SPY $QQQ $VIX...

By Evan Medeiros
Stocks Dip, Bitcoin Gains Strength; Risk‑off Could Reverse BTC
SocialMar 14, 2026

Stocks Dip, Bitcoin Gains Strength; Risk‑off Could Reverse BTC

Stocks are pressing new lows while Bitcoin is quietly building relative strength. If we get a full risk-off cascade, don’t expect BTC to hang in there, but more chop for stocks and this can grind higher. 📺...

By Evan Medeiros
XLF Suffers 13% Drop, Second Biggest in Three Years
SocialMar 12, 2026

XLF Suffers 13% Drop, Second Biggest in Three Years

Just over a 13% drawdown for Financials $XLF Second largest in the past 3 years. https://t.co/E1aBc2ZqVe

By Evan Medeiros
Circle ($CRCL) Stands Out Green Amid Red Momentum Portfolio
SocialMar 12, 2026

Circle ($CRCL) Stands Out Green Amid Red Momentum Portfolio

It's a sea of red across the momentum portfolio today, one of the few green standouts is Circle hanging tough $CRCL https://t.co/2fGzV4CD5u

By Evan Medeiros
Market Still Trendless—Avoid Overtrading in the Chop
SocialMar 11, 2026

Market Still Trendless—Avoid Overtrading in the Chop

Your daily reminder that we’re still in a trendless market at the index level. Don’t spin your tires too fast trying to force trades within the chop fest. https://t.co/T9j49HfLtq

By Evan Medeiros
Consumer Staples Face Pullback, Premium Erodes
SocialMar 11, 2026

Consumer Staples Face Pullback, Premium Erodes

Consumer staples getting some of that premium knocked out of them over the past week. If you wanted a pullback you're getting it. $XLP https://t.co/ro0tAusmFy

By Evan Medeiros
Lumentum Joins S&P 500, Remains Momentum Buy
SocialMar 10, 2026

Lumentum Joins S&P 500, Remains Momentum Buy

Lumentum graduating from mid-cap status into the big leagues with inclusion into the S&P 500. Stock is part of our momentum buy list and continues to act well technically (long) $LITE https://t.co/DTkN238w42

By Evan Medeiros
Oracle Earnings Spark 15% IGV Rebound, Momentum Persists
SocialMar 10, 2026

Oracle Earnings Spark 15% IGV Rebound, Momentum Persists

Perhaps some Oracle earnings day jitters for the software etf $IGV. Nice 15% bounce off the recent lows and still might not be done, but we're seeing our first rest day. https://t.co/5RTK5xXcNv

By Evan Medeiros
Semiconductor ETF SMH Reverses Near Key 375 Pivot
SocialMar 9, 2026

Semiconductor ETF SMH Reverses Near Key 375 Pivot

Semiconductors $SMH tapped and reversed right at a key prior pivot around the ~375 area seen here on @IBDinvestors MarketSurge. Was hoping for a flush toward 370 this AM, so for now I’m just watching how the day closes, but it's...

By Evan Medeiros
Nasdaq 100 Holds Range Amid Worsening News Flow
SocialMar 7, 2026

Nasdaq 100 Holds Range Amid Worsening News Flow

News flow keeps getting worse, yet the Nasdaq 100 keeps on trading sideways. The pressure in this range is building. We discuss timeframes, risks, and positioning heading into next week. 📺 Watch here: https://t.co/nt5IS0fbSr $SPY $QQQ $USO $VIX $IGV https://t.co/YWkFBr5Z2s

By Evan Medeiros
Oil Surge Triggers Market Drop, Volatility Spikes
SocialMar 6, 2026

Oil Surge Triggers Market Drop, Volatility Spikes

Markets took a hit this week as oil surged to $91 and volatility spiked. We walk through the technical damage, the software bounce, and the levels that matter next. $SPY $QQQ $USO $VIX $EEM https://t.co/nXDfSdS9vc

By Evan Medeiros
Dollar Surge Flushes Gold, Emerging Market ETFs
SocialMar 3, 2026

Dollar Surge Flushes Gold, Emerging Market ETFs

The rock solid complacent trends like $GLD, $EEM, and $ACWX all getting flushed today as the dollar rips another day https://t.co/f6LhWCRZLV

By Evan Medeiros
IGV Opens Low, Rallies Higher Five Sessions Straight
SocialMar 2, 2026

IGV Opens Low, Rallies Higher Five Sessions Straight

Five straight sessions now in software $IGV where they open it near the lows and grind it higher all day. https://t.co/RL0fGDQBeY

By Evan Medeiros
Awaiting Resolution of NVIDIA’s Weekly Price Range
SocialMar 1, 2026

Awaiting Resolution of NVIDIA’s Weekly Price Range

Looking forward to the day this weekly range in NVIDIA resolves itself. 📺 Latest market thoughts here: https://t.co/EXexrJSfof $SPY $IWM $QQQ $NVDA https://t.co/MT0GCVoiFE

By Evan Medeiros