Eight Trillion Dollars of T‑Bills Rollover Every Year
That’s the thing about treasury bills man, there’s $8t that rolls over every year And the world keeps spinning every year despite it!
Market Positioning Shapes Policy, Fuels Relief Rally
Since we now live in a reflexive world where policy is often set based on price signals, you could make the argument that market structure and positioning can drive policy. Market positioning was primed to see a relief rally and...
Mainstream Media Mislabels Crypto Insider Adam Amid Quantum Debate
Man the mainstream media really has no idea what is going on in the crypto space hey Framing Adam as some obscure guy and not someone who’s been fighting with nic Carter about quantum on X everyday 😂
Markets Price Future, Not Just Current Data
As we navigate the next couple of weeks it’s quite important to delineate in your brain between energy analysts/economists who focus on static known variables vs traders that are focused on market impact and rates of change into the future...
You Can Redefine Yourself—No Limits, No Predestination
Always remember that you can just do things and you can create any version of yourself that you want and it’s not constrained or predetermined Have a good weekend ❤️ https://t.co/HsS7gUCkq4
White Smoke Signals New JPMorgan Collar Strike
White smoke can be seen billowing out of the top of the JP Morgan building as a new JPM collar strike has been chosen https://t.co/UWJFjOF7Rr
Only Five Claude Queries, Already Hit Usage Limit
I swear you do like 5 things with claude right now and hit a usage limit wtf
Asian Markets Lag US, Ideal for Equity Short
Been banging the drum about how much worse this is in Asian economies than US…. Much better place to express an equity short right now
Live in 40 Minutes: Fed Governor Stephen Miran
Going live with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran in 40 minutes - tune in! @federalreserve
Oman Oil Plunges From $170 to $90s, Market Wraps
Lots of headline whipsaw but call me crazy but I do find market price action useful. Oman oil back down to the 90’s from the 170 highs says this is a wrap https://t.co/0WwZo0Hanz
Central Banks Must Follow Mandates Amid Oil Shock
Lotta spilled milk around what central banks should do in the face of this oil shock. But the fact is what they are mandated to do is what matters.
Single‑mandate Central Banks Are Trapped, Forced to Hike
This week we unpack just how trapped central banks are, especially single mandate central banks who are forced to hike into this shock. Shit is not great yo
Automation Replaces White‑collar Work, Turning Us Into Data‑gathering AI Slaves
Sorry we automated all the cool white collar jobs But now you can be an AI agent slave to collect data
Asian Demand Drives Premium Oil Bids, Not Manipulation
Why is everyone assuming CL manipulation and not just occam's razor that asian markets need oil and they cant access landlocked wti as easily and are all bidding up whatever is accessible even if at a significant premium
Burning Puts Unintentionally Fuels the Global Economy
4400 likes - all you people burning puts are supporting the global economy i thank you for your service
Outdated February Inflation Data Misrepresents Current Price Trends
Using an inflation print from February before the Iran war even began to say that there's been no inflation >
Understanding Oil Shock Shift: From Inflation to Demand Destruction
I think this is the most important question to understand moving forward. Asked @BobEUnlimited about what his checklist looks like for when oil shocks flip from inflation to demand destruction
Oil Shocks Shape Economy; Central Banks' Response Blueprint
Incredibly important episode with @BobEUnlimited where we deep dive into how oil shocks impact the economy and how central banks react. This is the ultimate playbook
Oil Shock Boosts Dollar, Weakens Euro and Asian Currencies
I don’t know how much clearer I could have been in the latest roundup. 1) the price of oil doubled in a week and the Hormuz closure is 100x works for European and Asian markets. Therefore as long as it...
Use a Simple Mental Model for the Oil Shock
A mental model for how to think about the current oil shock: As I said I’m sure 10 different economists have 10 differing econometric models on what price that flip occurs but you get the idea
STRC’s 11.5% Yield Halves FIRE Retirement Timeline
We have discovered corporate bonds. If you take on more risk, you get a higher return wow
Trigger Oil Spikes, Not Releases, to Maximize Meme Market Impact
Disagree. If they were to move forward with releasing it, they lose their biggest tool right away. Instead, if you dangle the carrot anytime oil goes above $100, you get way more bang for your buck. We live in the era of...
Current Curve Rerating Signals Faster Resolution Than 2022
This is all I was trying to say. The relative rerating of the curve this time vs 2022 is very different and implies a quicker resolution vs 2022 when the whole curve rerated. Thanks Warren
Oil Curve Downplays Iran War, Raises Market Tension
Who knows whether its valid or not, but the oil curve is fading the Iran war so far and seems to think this wraps up pretty quickly. No idea whether that's valid pricing or not but does increase the tension...
AI's Asset Demand Shifts Money From Tech to Commodities
The framing here just seems so clear to me. AI buildout requires a ton of real assets and commodities to complete Cyclical re acceleration is bullish commodities Everyone is overweight tech and AI is now questioning the validity of the multiples...
Economic Rebound Fuels Surge in Job Postings
What if the job postings theme was more of a macro story than an AI one and now that the economy is re-accelerating so are job openings?
New Bill’s Stimulus Set to Boost Spending Soon
The most stimulative portions of the Big Beautiful Bill are about to hit over the next couple of months and will be adding some juice to consumer spending over the next few months
Shift to Equal‑weight, Financials, and Cyclical Assets
Wow, the goat is also rotating out of Megacap tech, long equal weight performance vs market cap, long financials for deregulation and curve steepening, and long real cyclical assets Feels good man
AI‑driven Spending Masked Recession; Recovery Now Emerging
With this week's jobs revisions, my framework of a main street recession happening last spring that was papered over by large AI capex and top percentile income earners spending like mad makes more sense. And now IMO we're coming out the...
Manufacturing Payrolls Rise, Private Jobs Surge, Unemployment Falls
First positive manufacturing payrolls in a very long time, private payrolls surging, UR down. The economy is re-accelerating https://t.co/sbUBFBA4SA