Apple Beats Forecast, Guides Revenue Above Street Expectations
Overall the Apple numbers looked great. ➡️The stock is down 0.5% which is noise. ➡️The guide is what counts. I expect revenue guide higher than the 9% that the Street is looking for in June. ➡️Revenue growth was 17%, Street looking for 15%. ➡️Mac and iPad better. ➡️Services up 16% vs. Street at 14%. ➡️Gross margins 49.3% vs. 48.3%. Next quarter the Street is already factoring in higher memory costs at 47.6% and June is 47.4%. I don't expect the Street to make changes to those numbers.
IPhone Revenue Hits Target Despite Mixed Forecasts
Did the iPhone miss? Depends on what number you're looking at. They reported $56.99B, up 22% y/y vs 23%. Factset was at $56.66B Whisper was $57.5B My take: They made the iPhone number. $AAPL
Microsoft Praises Azure Growth, Calls for Usage‑Based Pricing
$MSFT Postive comments about Azure growing at 40% in June vs 39% in March was offset by them talking about the elephant in the room, the need for a new monetization model for software that is usage based. https://t.co/7rGE0ICsT1
AI‑driven Cloud Surge Fuels Microsoft, Amazon Rally
Both $MSFT and $AMZN stocks are now green. MSFT up 2% and AMZN up 4%. Both were down 2% when the calls started. Reason is positive comments about cloud growth in June, and they are supply constrained. Microsoft says Azure...
Meta's Muse Spark Boosts Sessions, Deepening Screen Addiction
$META says its new Muse Spark model is improving user sessions by a "double digit" percentage. My take: AI is going to make it even more difficult for humanity to put down their screens.
Meta Cuts 15% Staff, Touts AI Empowerment
Zuckerberg says AI will amp the ability for people to do what they want. Trying to smooth over the fact that Meta has been the most aggressive company at replacing humans with AI. My math is they've cut...
Meta's DAP Growth Likely 5.5% in March
Zuckerberg kicks off the $META call explaining the deep in DAP growth. It was 7% last quarter and 4% in March. He says Iran and Russia regions were down. My take: Adding those back it likely grew 5.5% in March.
Supply Constraints Curb Cloud Growth, AI Still Early
Sundar says cloud revenue would have been higher if not for supply constrains. $GOOG It was 63% in March, vs up 48% in Dec-25. My take: I was expecting him to say this and it shows how early we still...
Google Bets on Agentic Commerce as New Revenue Engine
$GOOG says agentic commerce is long term growth driver. Has not started. The process of commerce will have "new standards from discovery to buying" My take: More shots for Google to make money.
Amazon Must Spotlight Consumer AI to Rerate Valuation
$AMZN revenue up 15% in March vs. 12% in December. AWS up 28% missed the whisper of 30%. Thats ok because the real number was likely much better. Have to wait for the call to hear more. My take: Like Microsoft, Amazon...
Google Predicts 18% Search Growth, Beating Expectations
$GOOG says there is "upside" to ad coverage in AI Overviews and AI Mode. My take: Search in growth will be higher for longer. Street is looking for 15% growth this year. Likely closer to 18%.
GOOG CFO Predicts Capex Surge, Likely 20‑30% Rise
$GOOG CFO says capex in 2027 will increase "substantially" over 2026. Street is expecting up 10%. My take: I bet it's up 20-30% next year.
Google Rallies While Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Slide
Three of the four mega cap tech down after hours. We will hear from MSFT, AMZN and META at 5:30p ET. $GOOG up 6% $MSFT down 2% $AMZN down 2% $META down 6% (capex guide).
Intel Hints at New Customers, Stock Jumps 19%
The recurring message from the $INTC management team on the call: more new customers are coming. They just won't be announcing them today. Stock has risen an additional 4% on the call. Now up 19%.
Intel's AI Surge Drives 15% Stock Jump, Beats Forecast
$INTC stock is up 15% on earnings. If there is ever a question regrading how early we are in AI, look at what it the rising AI tide is doing to Intel, which was arguably on the ropes. Revenue in: * Dec-25...
Elon Predicts Cybercab Dominance, Dampening Minivan Hopes
Question on the call related to future $TSLA vehicles. Elon says most of production in the future will be Cybercab because 90% of miles are with two or fewer people in the car. He mentions the new Roadster is coming next...
Elon Promises Massive Capex Boost, Expects Revenue Surge
Stock dips slightly because the first topic for Elon on the call is highlighting that they will be “Substantially increasing capex, which will be followed by a substantial increase in revenue” Battery, AI training, Chip, Manufacturing.
Tesla’s Delivery Outlook Remains Vague, Limited Growth Expected
What about $TSLA deliveries for this year? The comment in the shareholder deck on delivery outlook was not helpful. I'm not expecting much from the call. Here's what the outlook on volume reads: "We are focused on maximum capacity utilization...
FSD Miles Surge 93% Quarter‑over‑Quarter, Subscribers Driving More
FSD subs grew 16% q/q (reported). FSD miles driven grew 93% q/q (looking at the chart in the deck). My take: Hard to believe. Looking for confirmation on the call that FSD miles driven grew that much quarter over quarter. If...
Robotaxi Miles Surge Ninefold in Six Months
Paid Robotaxi miles basically doubled from December to March. $TSLA Looking at the chart in the deck: Sep 25: ~125k Dec 25: ~525k Mar 26: ~1.1m
Tesla's New Outlook Highlights Infrastructure Edge, Possible Terafab Role
The only change in the $TSLA outlook section compared to last quarter was the language: "Capacity build out and ramp related to our multi-year infrastructure initiatives, including AI compute, solar, battery material and semiconductor manufacturing are underway". My take: more infrastructure is...
Tesla Shares Rise as Margin Beats Expectations
$TSLA up 4% in part on automotive gross margin excluding credits (non-GAAP) were 19.2%, vs. 17.5% expectation.
Apple's Flat Premarket Reflects Confidence in June Guidance
Shares of $AAPL flat in the premarket. Sign that investors feel good about the June guide and more importantly that Ternus is the right guy. https://t.co/r2aFrjDjHD
Ternus Could Boost Apple’s Valuation by Reshaping Narrative
Tim crushed it as CEO of Apple. Ternus has an opportunity to supercharge $AAPL's multiple by changing the narrative, which is the biggest opportunity in big tech. https://t.co/OBAsgEfbOV
Apple Defies China Smartphone Slump, up 20% Year‑over‑year
Good news for $AAPL March quarter: China iPhone likely up 20% y/y vs expectations of up 15%. This is based on today’s Counterpoint data that I believe is directionally accurate. They report while total smartphone shipments in China declined...
Elon’s Hardware 5 Tape‑Out Fuels Tesla’s Biggest Rally
$TSLA up 7.4% today, marking its best daily performance in 9 months. I attribute 20% of today’s move to the market (Nasdaq up 1.4%), along with a UBS upgrade earlier today. I believe 80% of the move is related to Elon’s nocturnal...
Tesla‑SpaceX Merger Essential for Sovereign AI Future
Tesla is an important part of our thesis on SpaceX building sovereign AI. To monetize physical AI on Earth, @SpaceX needs $TSLA. To secure sovereign AI models and infrastructure, Tesla needs SpaceX. A formal merger between the two will face...
SpaceX Pioneers First Sovereign AI – Deep Dive
For a deep dive on our @SpaceX Is Building the World’s First Sovereign AI thesis, check out @dougclinton and I on Pressure Points:
AI's Second Inning Promises Explosive Growth, Not a Bubble
Are we in an AI bubble? Andy Jassy gave his take in the $AMZN annual shareholder letter: “I’ve followed the public debate on whether this technology is over-hyped, whether we’re in ‘a bubble,’ and if the margins and ROIC will be...
SpaceX Poised to Own Every Layer of Tech Stack
SpaceX, across Musk’s constellation of assets, has a plausible path to owning every single layer. Chips. Models. Data. Internet delivery. And the rockets to put it all wherever physics allows. No other company has that opportunity. https://t.co/W4WPXCFNsz
Tesla's Unconfirmed Entry‑Level Model Likely 2028 Debut
Reuters reports $TSLA is in early development for a new entry-level vehicle, roughly 5% smaller than the Cybercab. It reportedly has NOT received a green light yet, and no timing was given. My first reaction was click bait. My take: We’ve...
SpaceX Pursues Fully Independent, Sovereign AI Infrastructure
We think @SpaceX is building the world’s only sovereign AI, supreme, independent control of an AI platform. The model. The chips. The data center. The pipes that deliver the intelligence to the end user. No third-party cloud. No rented...
Tesla's Missed Delivery Hints Strong Underlying EV Demand
$TSLA is down because they slightly missed March delivery expectations.That doesn't change the takeaway. March deliveries were the first solid read on underlying demand; they grew without the help of tax credits, and growth going forward should quicken. Over the past...
Tesla Deliveries Rise 7% YoY, Thriving without Subsidies
$TSLA deliveries of 358K were up about 7% year every year. More or less in line with the whisper and a win for the company given it’s the first quarter where we get a true read on underline demand post...
Apple’s AI Future Unlocks Upside for Investors
Happy Birthday $AAPL. After 50 years of thinking different, I believe that Apple’s most profound feature is still in the making: personalized AI. Apple + AI remains appears to be one of the most underappreciated opportunities in tech. Glad to be an...
Apple’s Lasting Edge: Jobs’ Culture Outlives iPhone
$AAPL's greatest product wasn't the iPhone. It was the culture Jobs built to outlast him. 50 years in, that edge is as sharp as ever. Thank you, Steve. #Apple50 https://t.co/mb5vJTZqm5 https://t.co/VlrPrdXVE7
Tesla Gains as Rivals Slash EV Investment
Beyond the headline of next week’s $TSLA deliveries is the reality that the EV business is in a better place today than two years ago. Big Auto made big cuts to EV investment over that time, and that gives Tesla...
Frontier Robotics Are Arriving—Invest Now, Timing Irrelevant
Melania Trump walking the red carpet with Figure 03 was the third step forward for bots this week. We also saw $UBER commit $1.25B to robotaxis and Google DeepMind sign its third robotics hardware partnership in six months. Bottom line: We...
Tesla Model Y/3 Deliveries Expected Flat, Street Overestimates
$TSLA deliveries out next Thursday. The key metric is Model Y/3, which I believe will be flat y/y (324k). The Street is looking for 351k, up 8%. It's the first read on true demand after last September’s EV tax credit...
Apple’s Siri Upgrade: Bigger AI Vision, Delayed Rollout
Two things investors should keep in mind as Apple works to do something unique in AI: 1️⃣ The scope of their AI ambitions is bigger than last year’s WWDC comments. It's now expected to include conversational AI and using Siri as...
Deepwater Interns Will Build Personal AI Agents This Summer
I agree with Zuck on the agents. This summer, Deepwater’s interns won’t be learning about tech investing. They’ll be building personal AI agents instead. https://t.co/zKCWor8ii9
Self‑Driving Cars Lead Physical AI’s First Mass Adoption
Buckle up. The first wave of physical AI mass adoption will be self-driving cars. The evidence: Tesla’s FSD is making major gains, and Waymo is going from 6 cities at the end of 2025 to likely 25 by the end...
Physical AI Poised for 2028 Breakout, Bezos Leads
Physical AI is the most underappreciated driver of long-term AI demand. Expect a breakout by 2028. Bezos is already front-running this with his new fund. https://t.co/z9hVOd6x1r
Cook's Loyalty Fuels Investor Confidence in Apple
Thrilled to hear Cook’s update that he “can’t imagine life without Apple”, and has no plans to step down. As an $AAPL investor, I can’t imagine owning the stock without Cook.
AI Platform Predicts 40%+ Growth, Token Pricing Surge
Four key takeaways from 2.5 hours of keynote: 1. Jensen says growth in CY27 will be likely above 40%. The Street is at 30%. 2. Tiered pricing on tokens will become more pronounced given they claim to be the "inference king"...
Physical AI to Power Nvidia’s $70B Growth
Physical AI gets its time in the keynote (as expected). I believe physical AI is going to be a meaningful growth driver for Nvidia starting in CY28. Today, only about 1% of Nvidia’s sales are used to deliver physical AI, which...
Developers Gauge Performance by Token Access, NVDA Rises
Fun one: Jensen mentions software developers are increasingly asking how many tokens come with their job. My take: It makes sense that developers who are tuned into the power of agentic AI understand their performance is going to be...
Software Firms Will Shift From SaaS Seats to Outcome-Based Pricing
Jensen address the future of software. Says every software company will become an agentic software company. My take: Agree, and the impact of that will change how software companies monetize. We move from selling seats (SaaS) to selling outcomes and task...
AI Token Pricing Will Tier With Premium Groq Power
Jensen brings in the Groq acquisition related to higher priced tokens. Says the economics of generating tokens is not a race to the bottom. He argues it’s a race to the top, the smartest models users will pay the most...
NVDA's Compute Still Cheapest, Investors Await Shift
Jensen reminds investors that the cost of $NVDA compute is still the lowest when you consider price and output. My take: True and investor are still waiting for the day when that changes. Part of the wall of worry.