Heavier, Faster E‑scooters Turn Collisions Into Dangerous Projectiles
A collision between a regular cyclist and an e-scooter or e-bike are something I worry about all the time. Not only are e-bikes/scooters faster, they are heavier: this scooter weighs ~80 lb, more than double most bikes. Speed X mass=dangerous projectile.
High‑non‑citizen Sub‑industries Drive Recent Job Gains
Great post from @mtkonczal. 1st, immigration: he finds 20% sub-industries with largest non-citizen % have led job gains since November. Supports my thesis a pickup in immigration could explain faster payroll vs household job growth (& higher breakeven)
AI Spending Surpasses Defense, Boosts Profits, Hurts Workers
Hyperscaler capex on track to exceed national defense spending.* AI is no longer just a tailwind, it's hurricane-strength weather system distorting everything in the economy. AI is pumping up stocks, profits, and depressing workers and wages. My column: https://t.co/lL8YtPLdkk...
April Adds 115k Jobs, Unemployment Still Rises
April's jobs report not at all consistent with the idea that breakeven job growth has plummeted to around zero. We got 115,000 new payroll jobs, and the unemployment rate went UP, from 4.26% to 4.34%.
US Labor Share Hits Record Low Since 1947
Labor's share of output (nonfarm business) fell to 54.1% in the first quarter, the lowest since records begin going back to 1947. "not so good news for society and our politics" - @KrishnaRSGuha https://t.co/D58YlaQefG
Trump Pushes State Capitalism, Eyes National Champion Merger
Trump's state capitalism w/American characteristics forges ahead. UAL CEO Scott Kirby suggested to Trump merger w/American could create "national champion." US officials discussed taking a stake, @MaggieSeverns @GavinBade @jdawsey1 @meridithmcgraw report. https://t.co/Vsiy5M5lbP
Whirlpool Blames Confidence, Raises Prices Amid Idiosyncratic Miss
Whirlpool said weak consumer confidence tanked sales of appliances. And it's raising prices. Something doesn't compute. Earnings misses can be idiosyncratic or macroeconomic. Whirlpool's look idiosyncratic; most cos. say consumer spending is fine). https://t.co/Q0EM6ALeA3
U.S. Debt Surpasses GDP, Tops 100% Threshold
The U.S. national debt now exceeds 100% of gross domestic product, crossing a once-unthinkable threshold, by @RichardRubinDC @WSJ. As of March 31, publicly held federal debt equaled 100.2% of 12-month trailing nominal GDP, up from 99.5% on Sept. 30. ...
Debate Over Stealth Manufacturing Boom Sparks Misinterpretations
1/ @Noahpinion disagrees with my column https://t.co/jqdZIRreAO declaring a stealth manufacturing boom. He makes some good points, but I also I think he misconstrues some of what I wrote, and some underlying facts.
Manufacturing Rebound Driven by Imports, Not Tariffs
There's a stealth manufacturing recovery underway, evident in output, not jobs. Don't credit tariffs; the strongest growth is in sectors with little tariff protection, and strong imports: AI-related computers, electronics, etc; and aerospace. https://t.co/jqdZIRreAO
C.E.O. Council Links DEI to Declining Productivity
Advocates claim DEI helps companies outperform financially. Trumps' Council of Economic Advisers says the opposite is true. In a new study, they say starting around 2016, a rising minority share of managers correlated with lower productivity /1 https://t.co/tJW1hx8ygl
Panel Tackles Growing Global Current Account Imbalances
I'm looking forward to moderating this panel Wednesday on widening current account imbalances, with IMF MD Kristalina Georgieva, BOE Gov Andrew Bailey, Kristin Forbes, Adam Posen and Helene Rey.
US‑Iran Talks Unlikely to Yield Comprehensive Deal, Says Evercore
.@SarahABianchi Evercore ISI: "Even if Lebanon issue can be clarified, we don’t expect any breakthroughs from U.S.-Iran mtg... Given deep mutual distrust and Iran’s well-established tendency to prolong negotiations, the likelihood of a comprehensive agreement is next to...
Uber's Rating System Forces Blame on Drivers for App Faults
If you have a problem with your @Uber ride, the app almost dictates that you blame the driver, e.g. for "unsafe dropoff," "didn't follow map", or "vehicle cleanliness." But my problems are usually with the service/app itself, not the driver:...
Private Credit Risks Don't Mirror Subprime Crisis, Study Shows
As private credit's troubles mount, it's natural to wonder if it could lead to another financial crisis, as with subprime. I spent some time studying the parallels. Here's my answer. https://t.co/bmRhA0D1v4 https://t.co/u5Kj2GHdDc