US Agg Forward Yield Peaks at 8.
Janney ISG's Real Yields model is noting the highest 12m forward return for the US Agg since Jan 2025: 8.6% (+/-1sd 7.8 - 9.3%) https://t.co/bNbKSL4Mad
IG Credit Spreads
IG credit spreads basically back to 4Q2025 tights--in the 8th percentile of all history. https://t.co/SoC6HFk7mE
Gundlach Pushes Demand for His Own Holdings
Already taken 3x calls this morning on this nonsense story. Just Gundlach trying to generate demand for something he already owns. Create liquidity and get lower coupons bid up on the spline.
Morning Economic Data Shows Low Price Payments
Few takeaways from morning eco data incl #ism and #jolts. Really not much to report save for prices paid on the low side. https://t.co/uaSn4LbnDk
Data Centers Drive 70% of Q1 GDP Growth
Few #eco data takeaways Standout to me is that non-resi investment (basically data centers) were +1.4% of 1Q's +2.0% GDP growth. https://t.co/5NFKB6nOiS
Powell's Final Speech Triggers 4.41% 10‑Year Surge
Fed Chair Jay Powell steps up to the podium one last time. Markets 4.41% 10yr, Spooz 7150, BBDXY 1202.37 1/x https://t.co/Y6jhMca7dd
Powell's Final Press Conference Sparks Warsh Representation Debate
Today is Jay Powell's (presumed) last press conference as FOMC Chair. With Warsh coming on board, should I represent him with:
Reversing Inflation: A Disastrous Lesson From Japan
Absolute clown show on BTV: "I believe we should not just slow but reverse inflation." Worked well for Japan, Neil.
Survey Flags High Credit Risk, yet IG Spreads Stay Low
In @steveliesman FOMC survey, 70% of respondents labeled systemic credit risk as "extremely elevated or "somewhat elevated." How can you possibly square that with IG credit spreads 80bps in the bottom quintile? https://t.co/1lJyASMnM1
Month-End Rebalancing Drives Strong Equity Sales, USD Rate Buying
Early look: month end rebalancing needs are the highest in a while: have -1.2 z-score for sale on equities (including this morning's selloff) and +1.4 z-score buying in USD rates markets. https://t.co/yuKAoaPSGq
DoJ Drops Powell Probe, Markets Stay Unmoved
Interesting that headline (DoJ to drop Powell investigation from ABC) got no market reaction whatsoever.
Spot the AI Formula: Copy, Contrarian, Obvious Explanation
Is there a clearer tell for an LLM-generated post than: [What everyone's doing] [Contrarian comment] "Here's why:" [Obvious explanation]
Quick Model Shows CPI + PPI Outpacing PCE
Morning Commentary with a few #PPI takeaways & CPI+PPI = > PCE model (note this is a "quick" model with few adjustments for data weirdness that has admittedly been more common of late). https://t.co/JZ69JZIaEW
Screen‑traded Crude No Longer Reliable Price Gauge
Tough news flow to start the overnight session, but I don’t think screen-traded crude is a useful indicator right now. Pretty much all asset classes have internalized the fact that a barrel delivered in a barrel in futures pricing are...
Core PCE Model Hits Near‑exact Forecast
Going to give myself a little pat on the back for core PCE model at +0.37% and actual print +0.367%